Understanding Compound Events in Fragile Contexts: Retrospective Compound Risk Analysis of Tropical Storms Eta and lota in Honduras

Publication:
Understanding Compound Events in Fragile Contexts: Retrospective Compound Risk Analysis of Tropical Storms Eta and lota in Honduras

dc.contributor.author	World Bank
dc.contributor.author	Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre
dc.date.accessioned	2025-04-29T20:06:35Z
dc.date.available	2025-04-29T20:06:35Z
dc.date.issued	2022-04-24
dc.description.abstract	The dual Tropical Storms Eta and Iota that hit Honduras in November 2020 are an example of how natural, socioeconomic, and political drivers can produce compounding impacts. Compound crises such as these hinder, and sometimes even reverse, development gains as direct losses and damages and long-term implications for fragility and macroeconomics affect poverty and prosperity. This retrospective analysis explores these risk interactions along with the available warnings and preventive actions to draw lessons for future crises of a similar nature as part of the Global Crisis Risk Platform (GCRP) of the World Bank. This retrospective case study draws on compound risk analysis methodologies and multi-hazard early warning system designs to understand the underlying drivers of risks at the time and how these could be anticipated in the future. The case study draws on peer-reviewed literature and key informant interviews, publicly accessible data, and geospatial analysis to consider compounding and cascading risk interactions in 2018–2020 in Honduras, their attendant impacts and risk drivers, and available warnings, as well as the communication and early actions associated with them. The compound risk case study draws on qualitative primary data gathered through key informant (KI) interviews, a geospatial data analysis, forecast analysis, and a literature review. The findings discuss the key impacts seen during the crisis, performance of the early warning system, and the drivers and root causes of risk. These serve as the building blocks for assessing the predictability of the main impacts and the needs for future decision support.	en
dc.identifier	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099042425181519859
dc.identifier.doi	10.1596/43137
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43137
dc.language	English
dc.language.iso	en
dc.publisher	Washington, DC: World Bank
dc.rights	CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holder	World Bank
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/igo
dc.title	Understanding Compound Events in Fragile Contexts	en
dc.title.subtitle	Retrospective Compound Risk Analysis of Tropical Storms Eta and lota in Honduras	en
dspace.entity.type	Publication
okr.date.disclosure	2022-04-25
okr.date.doiregistration	2025-05-01T02:20:48.375088Z
okr.date.lastmodified	2025-04-28T06:02:43Z	en
okr.doctype	Report
okr.doctype	Publications & Research
okr.docurl	http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099042425181519859
okr.guid	099042425181519859
okr.identifier.docmid	P173164-b4553216-2562-4ba4-86d1-1aa1b324ea9a
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum	40009090
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum	40009090
okr.identifier.report	200869
okr.import.id	7244
okr.imported	true	en
okr.language.supported	en
okr.pdfurl	https://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099042425181519859/pdf/P173164-b4553216-2562-4ba4-86d1-1aa1b324ea9a.pdf	en
okr.region.administrative	The World Region
okr.region.country
okr.sector	Public Administration
okr.theme	FY17 - Adaptation,FY17 - Disaster Risk Reduction,FY17 - Food Security,FY17 - Climate change,FY17 - Fragility, Conflict and Violence,FY17 - Nutrition and Food Security,FY17 - Disaster Risk Finance,FY17 - Finance for Development,FY17 - Disaster Response and Recovery,FY17 - Disaster Risk Management,FY17 - Disaster Preparedness
okr.theme	FY17 - Environment and Natural Resource Management,FY17 - Urban and Rural Development,FY17 - Social Development and Protection,FY17 - Human Development and Gender,FY17 - Finance
okr.unit	Strategy
okr.unit	Analytics
okr.unit	Fin. Solut. (GTFS1)
okr.volume	1