Publication: Algeria Economic Monitor, Fall 2020: Navigating the COVID-19 Pandemic, Engaging Structural Reforms
Loading...
Published
2020-11
ISSN
Date
2021-01-27
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report presents an overview of Algeria’s recent macroeconomic developments and of its short-term economic outlook. The report is divided into two chapters. Chapter one presents the country’s macroeconomic developments in 2019, which establishes the context for the unprecedented developments of 2020 related to the Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Chapter two details the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and concurrent crash in oil prices on various dimensions of Algeria’s economic fabric. Finally, the conclusion presents the short-term outlook for the Algerian economy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2020. Algeria Economic Monitor, Fall 2020: Navigating the COVID-19 Pandemic, Engaging Structural Reforms. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35058 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Fall 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09)Tunisia is expecting a sharper decline in growth than most of its regional peers, having entered the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis whilst already experiencing slow growth and rising debt levels. After an expected 9.2 percent contraction in 2020, growth is temporarily expected to accelerate to 5.8 percent in 2021 as the pandemic’s effects begin to abate, before returning to a more subdued growth trajectory at around 2 percent by 2022, reflecting pre-existing structural weaknesses. With this, some of the past gains in job creation and poverty reduction will be lost as unemployment edges up and the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty increases. In this difficult context, restoring the credibility of the macroeconomic framework is a critical next step for Tunisia to successfully navigate its way through this crisis and lay the foundation for a more durable recovery in growth. The special focus in this edition of the Tunisia Economic Monitor draws on the recently published enterprise survey for Tunisia to discuss the latest evidence on firm performance and present priorities for a growing and more productive private sector.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-30)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, December 2020(World Bank, Lilongwe, 2020-12-14)The pandemic has induced a sharp recession in many countries across the globe. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has caused an unprecedented shock to the global economy and led to an expected overall contraction of 4.4 percent in 2020. Advanced economies are projected to shrink by 5.8 percent and emerging and developing economies by 3.3 percent. With large uncertainty about wide and affordable access to vaccines, the outlook for 2021 is for a modest recovery of 5.2 percent. Malawi’s economy has been heavily affected, with growth projected at 1.0 percent in 2020, down from earlier projections of 4.8 percent. With population growth around 3.0 percent, this represents a 2.0 percent contraction in per capita GDP. Political stability has returned following the June 2020 Presidential elections, which should support investment. However, global and domestic factors emanating from the pandemic are affecting Malawi’s economy, including: 1) disruption in global value chains and trade and logistics; 2) decrease in tourism; and 3) decrease in remittances. This has combined with social distancing policies and behavior to also reduce domestic demand. Lower international oil prices, on the other hand, have helped reduce the import bill and alleviated fuel and transportation price pressures. Services and industry sectors have been particularly hard hit, leading to a heavier impact in urban areas. The travel and accommodation, tourism, and transport sectors have been substantially affected. Wholesale and retail trade, as well as manufacturing and construction activity declined due to disruptions in sourcing materials and subdued demand. However, favorable weather conditions supported a strongagricultural harvest, particularly for maize, which is supporting growth and food security. Yet, production of key export crops, particularly tobacco, have declined. Poverty reduction in Malawi has stagnated in the last 15 years and is expected to worsen with the pandemic. An estimated 12 percent of the economically active population have experienced job losses due to the crisis. Although this labor market impact is moderate compared to some other countries in the region, this comes after more than 15 years of Malawi’s poverty rate stagnating at high levels. Poverty has declined more slowly in Malawi than the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. Malawi’s poverty rate based on the 1.90 US Dollars threshold has declined by 3 percentage points from 2004 to 2016, from 73.4 to 70.3 percent. This compares to an 11 percentage point drop for Sub-Saharan Africa, from 53.2 to 42.3 percent. The current account deficit is projected to expand to 19.6 percent of GDP in 2020, up from 17.8 percent in 2019. Exports and imports have been affected by transport disruptions and lockdowns in major trading partners, as well as lower international oil prices. Despite the decline in imports, the drop in key exports, particularly tobacco, is expected to be even greater. Moreover, the downturn in the global economy has also reduced the inflow of remittances by 30 percent for the year through October compared to last year.Publication Algeria Economic Monitor, Spring 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-31)This Algeria Economic Monitor provides an update on key recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications these developments and changes in policies have on the outlook for Algeria. This Monitor’s coverageranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Algeria. The report is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 presents the country’s macroeconomic developments in 2020 and early 2021. Chapter 2 presents the short- to medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy. Chapter 3 details the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequality in Algeria based on evidence across the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Finally, Chapter 4 looks at the key challenges in the country’s health sector as the COVID-19 pandemic eases. The cut-off date for data and forecasting is June 11, 2021.Publication Morocco Economic Monitor, July 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-07)This report presents the current outlook for Morocco given the recent Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) developments. The COVID-19 shock is, however, abruptly pushing the economy into a severe recession, the first one since 1995. The labor market is facing a shock of historical proportion, with vulnerable workers, including those in the informal sector being particularly affected. The government’s response to date has been swift and decisive. The proactive response has enabled the country to avoid a massive outbreak, thus saving lives. The post-pandemic economic recovery is projected - with unusually large uncertainty - to be a protracted one, with growth only returning to the pre-pandemic trend by 2022. Faced with the risk of a protracted pandemic, moving from mitigation to an adaptation phase is key to ensuring a resilient, inclusive, and growing Moroccan economy. Despite potential volatility in the economic recovery phase, Morocco has an opportunity to build a more sustainable and resilient economy by developing a strategy to adapt, similar to its approach to the environment front.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.