Publication: Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2020: The Deliberate Depression
Loading...
Files in English
7,618 downloads
Published
2020-11-30
ISSN
Date
2020-11-30
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2020. Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2020: The Deliberate Depression. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/34842 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Fall 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09)Tunisia is expecting a sharper decline in growth than most of its regional peers, having entered the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis whilst already experiencing slow growth and rising debt levels. After an expected 9.2 percent contraction in 2020, growth is temporarily expected to accelerate to 5.8 percent in 2021 as the pandemic’s effects begin to abate, before returning to a more subdued growth trajectory at around 2 percent by 2022, reflecting pre-existing structural weaknesses. With this, some of the past gains in job creation and poverty reduction will be lost as unemployment edges up and the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty increases. In this difficult context, restoring the credibility of the macroeconomic framework is a critical next step for Tunisia to successfully navigate its way through this crisis and lay the foundation for a more durable recovery in growth. The special focus in this edition of the Tunisia Economic Monitor draws on the recently published enterprise survey for Tunisia to discuss the latest evidence on firm performance and present priorities for a growing and more productive private sector.Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, July 2020(World Bank, Lilongwe, 2020-07)Malawi’s new Government has inherited a difficult situation: the global COVID-19 pandemic has interrupted the country’s trajectory for a third straight year of faster growth, and tackling its impacts will present a considerable challenge. Growth improved to an estimated 4.4 percent in 2019, up from 3.5 percent in 2018, reflecting a rebound in agriculture. Improved agricultural production supported stronger performance in the industrial and service sectors. The uptick in growth also indicated resilience in Malawi’s economy in light of the impact of Cyclone Idai and considerable political uncertainty. The economy was on a trajectory for its third consecutive year of faster growth in 2020 before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The full extent of the epidemic’s negative impact is uncertain as the crisis is still unfolding, but a host of external and internal factors are dampening the Malawi economy. Global factors include both supply and demand channels. Disrupted supply chains have reduced imports of key production inputs, particularly from South Africa and China. However, exports from both countries have partially rebounded after their strict containment measures have been reduced earlier in the pandemic. Preliminary data indicates that imports were 26 percent lower in April and May 2020 compared to the same time last year. Increased trade logistics costs and delays are also affecting the flow of goods through borders. On the demand side, decreased demand from key trade partners is weighing on exports. The tobacco auction season through early July has seen a decrease in sales, with a 11.9 percent reduction in sales values, due to a 14.7 percent reduction in volumes partially offset by a 3.2 percent increase in average price. Tourism has already been severely affected. Remittances (through money transfer) decreased by 57 percent y-o-y in April before rebounding in May, when they were still 15 percent lower than the year prior.Publication Iraq Economic Monitor, Fall 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-11)Decades of political, economic and security shocks have shaped major structural imbalances in Iraq's economy, reinforcing Iraq's current fragility trap. Iraq remains as one of the most oil dependent countries in the world. Oil accounted for over 96 percent of exports, 92 percent of government budget revenues and 43 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019. Overdependence on oil has also increased economic volatility and discouraged investment in other sectors. Multiple security shocks including regional conflicts and ISIS attacks have left little room for non-oil sector growth. An unfavorable business environment has undermined private sector's crucial role in job creation. The large size of the public sector and wage bill rigidity has restricted fiscal space required for investments in human capital and infrastructure and restricted response to economic shocks. Poor service delivery and rampant corruption along with soaring unemployment and poverty rates have led to public grievances even before the global pandemic. Iraq's economy continues to face significant macroeconomic challenges following the twin shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic and collapse in global oil markets. Iraq's GDP shrank by 6.8 percent year-on year (y/y) in the first half of 2020 (H1-20) reversing a steady improving economic growth trend over the previous two years. Depressed global energy demand and the OPEC+ production cut led Iraq's oil GDP to contract by 10.4 percent (y/y) in Q2-20. Since then, oil production declined to reach a five-year low of 3.58 mbpd in August 2020. Lower economic activity was most pronounced in the services sector, which contracted by 20.7 percent (y/y) in Q2-20, following the introduction of lockdowns and curfews in March 2020. This sharp contraction led non-oil GDP to decline by 9.2 percent (y/y) in H1-20. As of September 2020, geo-mobility data showed activity in workplace areas to have partially improved to around 20 percent below their pre COVID-19 levels. However, the surge in COVID-19 cases, which exceeded 400,000 confirmed cases and 10,000 deaths in October 2020, highlights the ongoing nature of the health crisis and the necessity to focus on saving lives to avoid longer term irreversible impacts of the crisis. Iraq's economic outlook hinges on the prospects of global oil markets and the capacity of the healthcare sector to cope with the pandemic. Improved outlook for oil markets and increased production, as part of the OPEC agreement, are expected to drive growth in 2021 and 2022 in the absence of strong reforms. If the health situation improves, growth is projected to gradually rebound from 2.0 percent in 2021 and to 7.3 percent in 2022 with non-oil economy growth projected to bounce back to an average of 4 percent in 2021–22. As such, the fiscal and external pressures are expected to remain as the twin balances remain in deficit.Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, December 2020(World Bank, Lilongwe, 2020-12-14)The pandemic has induced a sharp recession in many countries across the globe. The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic has caused an unprecedented shock to the global economy and led to an expected overall contraction of 4.4 percent in 2020. Advanced economies are projected to shrink by 5.8 percent and emerging and developing economies by 3.3 percent. With large uncertainty about wide and affordable access to vaccines, the outlook for 2021 is for a modest recovery of 5.2 percent. Malawi’s economy has been heavily affected, with growth projected at 1.0 percent in 2020, down from earlier projections of 4.8 percent. With population growth around 3.0 percent, this represents a 2.0 percent contraction in per capita GDP. Political stability has returned following the June 2020 Presidential elections, which should support investment. However, global and domestic factors emanating from the pandemic are affecting Malawi’s economy, including: 1) disruption in global value chains and trade and logistics; 2) decrease in tourism; and 3) decrease in remittances. This has combined with social distancing policies and behavior to also reduce domestic demand. Lower international oil prices, on the other hand, have helped reduce the import bill and alleviated fuel and transportation price pressures. Services and industry sectors have been particularly hard hit, leading to a heavier impact in urban areas. The travel and accommodation, tourism, and transport sectors have been substantially affected. Wholesale and retail trade, as well as manufacturing and construction activity declined due to disruptions in sourcing materials and subdued demand. However, favorable weather conditions supported a strongagricultural harvest, particularly for maize, which is supporting growth and food security. Yet, production of key export crops, particularly tobacco, have declined. Poverty reduction in Malawi has stagnated in the last 15 years and is expected to worsen with the pandemic. An estimated 12 percent of the economically active population have experienced job losses due to the crisis. Although this labor market impact is moderate compared to some other countries in the region, this comes after more than 15 years of Malawi’s poverty rate stagnating at high levels. Poverty has declined more slowly in Malawi than the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa. Malawi’s poverty rate based on the 1.90 US Dollars threshold has declined by 3 percentage points from 2004 to 2016, from 73.4 to 70.3 percent. This compares to an 11 percentage point drop for Sub-Saharan Africa, from 53.2 to 42.3 percent. The current account deficit is projected to expand to 19.6 percent of GDP in 2020, up from 17.8 percent in 2019. Exports and imports have been affected by transport disruptions and lockdowns in major trading partners, as well as lower international oil prices. Despite the decline in imports, the drop in key exports, particularly tobacco, is expected to be even greater. Moreover, the downturn in the global economy has also reduced the inflow of remittances by 30 percent for the year through October compared to last year.Publication Tajikistan Country Economic Update, Fall 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-12-21)The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant adverse impact on the Tajik economy. Real GDP growth slowed to 4.2 percent year-on-year in the first nine months of 2020, compared to 7.2 percent a year earlier. Restrictions on labor mobility and economic activity at home and abroad resulted in lower migrant remittances, weaker consumer demand, and reduced investments. Although exports enjoyed a record global demand for gold, the domestic market collapsed, suggesting a more severe impact of COVID-19 on domestic jobs and incomes. A growing share of the population reported reducing their food consumption, and the inability of previously returned migrants to travel abroad led to a significant increase in the unemployment rate. The healthcare system faces unprecedented pressure to accommodate a sudden influx of patients. International financial institutions and partner countries rushed with financial and in-kind aid to help Tajikistan contain the pandemic’s impact. In an effort to ameliorate the economic fallout, the authorities deferred tax collections, boosted health and social spending, and eased monetary policy. They established an interagency task force to address health challenges emerging from the pandemic.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Taxes, Spending, and Equity: International Patterns and Lessons for Developing Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-17)Taxes and public spending underpin the basic administration of government and finance the human capital and infrastructure investments needed for economic growth. They can also have a significant and immediate impact on poverty and inequality. The question of how public finance can support longer-term growth objectives while promoting equity has become even more important in recent years, given the high fiscal deficits and debt levels most countries emerged with in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. These included the increasing cost of debt and the need to restart environmentally sustainable growth while helping households address the learning losses and other social scars caused by the pandemic. This paper examines the global evidence on which households pay which taxes and who benefits from what spending, and critically, the net effect on different households across the income distribution. The aim is to identify the patterns and lessons that emerge for designing progressive fiscal policies. A global dataset of 96 countries is assembled, spanning all regions of the world and all national income levels, grounded in the Commitment to Equity (CEQ) approach to fiscal incidence.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication The Mobility of Displaced Syrians(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2020)The war in Syria, now in its eighth year, continues to take its toll on the Syrian people. More than half of the population of Syria remains displaced; 5.6 million persons are registered as refugees outside of the country and another 6.2 million are displaced within Syria’s borders. The internally displaced persons include 2 million school-age children; of these, less than half attend school. Another 739,000 Syrian children are out of school in the five neighborhood countries that host Syria’s refugees. The loss of human capital is staggering, and it will create permanent hardships for generations of Syrians going forward. Despite the tragic prospects for renewed fighting in certain parts of the country, an overall reduction in armed conflict is possible going forward. However, international experience shows that the absence of fighting is rarely a singular trigger for the return of displaced people. Numerous other factors—including improved security and socioeconomic conditions in origin states, access to property and assets, the availability of key services, and restitution in home areas—play important roles in shaping the scale and composition of the returns. Overall, refugees have their own calculus of return that considers all of these factors and assesses available options. The Mobility of Displaced Syrians: An Economic and Social Analysis sheds light on the “mobility calculus” of Syrian refugees. While dismissing any policies that imply wrongful practices involving forced repatriation, the study analyzes factors that may be considered by refugees in their own decisions to relocate. It provides a conceptual framework, supported by data and analysis, to facilitate an impartial conversation about refugees and their mobility choices. It also explores the diversified policy toolkit that the international community has available—and the most effective ways in which the toolkit can be adapted—to maximize the well-being of refugees, host countries, and the people in Syria.Publication Method Matters(Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2022-12-08)This paper analyzes the magnitude and predictors of misreporting on intimate partner violence. Women in Nigeria were randomly assigned to answer questions using either an indirect method (list experiment) that gives respondents anonymity, or the standard, direct face-to-face method. Intimate partner violence rates were up to 35 percent greater when measured using the list method than the direct method. Misreporting was associated with indicators often targeted in empowerment and development programs, such as education and vulnerability. These results suggest that standard survey methods may generate significant underestimates of the prevalence of intimate partner violence, and biased correlations and treatment effect estimates.Publication Direct and Indirect Impacts of Transport Mobility on Access to Jobs: Evidence from South Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-12)Access to jobs is essential for economic growth. In Africa, unemployment rates are notably high. This paper reexamines the relationship between transport mobility and labor market outcomes, with a particular focus on the direct and indirect effects of transport connectivity. As predicted by theory, wages are influenced by the level of commuting deterrence. Generally, higher earnings are associated with longer commute times and/or higher commuting costs. Local accessibility is also important, especially for individuals with time constraints. Both direct and indirect impacts are found to be significant in South Africa, where job accessibility has been challenging since the end of apartheid. For the direct impact, the wage elasticity associated with commuting costs is significant. Returns on commute are particularly high for women. Local accessibility to socioeconomic facilities, such as shops and health services, is also found to have a significant impact, consistent with the concept of mobility of care. To enhance employment, therefore, it is crucial to connect people not only to job locations but also to various socioeconomic points of interest, such as markets and hospitals, in an integrated manner. This integration will enable individuals to spend more time working and commuting longer distances.