Publication: Timor-Leste Economic Report: From Resources to Results - Transforming Public Spending to High Growth
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2025-02-12
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2025-02-12
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Timor-Leste faces a defining moment in its economic journey. As the country seeks to transition from petroleum dependency to a more diverse and resilient economy, the stakes cannot be higher. The Petroleum Fund, a lifeline that has sustained much of the national budget, risks depletion by 2035, based on recent Ministry of Finance estimates, unless there are urgent reforms. Ambitious national goals - such as upcoming ASEAN membership - reflect the country’s aspirations to integrate globally and broaden its growth horizons. Yet, these opportunities are weighed down by significant fiscal challenges. More specifically, an expanding national budget that raises concerns about fiscal sustainability and the efficiency of public spending. The question is clear: how can Timor-Leste spend better to fuel sustainable growth while preserving fiscal stability
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“World Bank. 2025. Timor-Leste Economic Report: From Resources to Results - Transforming Public Spending to High Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/42806 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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The broader implications of two consecutive years of disappointing economic performance are yet to be gauged, such as the impact on employment levels and earnings, labour productivity, and household incomes. In the medium-term, economic growth is expected to recover by 2019.Publication Timor-Leste Economic Report, September 2025: Land of Opportunities - How Modern Land Administration Can Unlock Timor-Leste’s Economic Transformation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-19)Timor-Leste is at a defining moment - one that brings both urgent challenges and real opportunities to build a more resilient and prosperous future. With oil production halted, the country now relies on withdrawals from its Petroleum Fund, which can be depleted by 2038. This raises a pressing question: how can Timor-Leste build a sustainable future and preserve its fiscal buffers? The stakes are high, but so is the potential, with several pathways already emerging. Membership of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) promises deeper regional integration, long-delayed infrastructure projects are starting to bear fruit, and the tourism sector is rebounding. To seize this moment, Timor-Leste needs to mobilize its financial assets to grow its private sector, but for this to happen it needs to tackle the lack of land tenure security which is a barrier to investment across the board. Get this right, and Timor-Leste can become a model for sustainable growth in Southeast Asia.Publication Timor-Leste Poverty Assessment : Poverty in a New Nation - Analysis for Action, Volume 1. Main Report(Washington, DC, 2003-05)Timor-Leste has achieved enormous progress in rehabilitating its economy, reconstructing its infrastructure, reintegrating its refugees and building the key elements of a sustainable political process in an environment of internal peace. 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The key challenge lies now in formulating a poverty monitoring plan that includes both quantitative and participatory elements, and lays out the institutional arrangement for data analysis and reporting to ensure that the collected data inform policy making and program design.
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