Publication: Groundswell Africa: Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries
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2021-10-18
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2021-10-26
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This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. The study finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. These numbers are not predestined—and could be reduced at the regional level by about 60 percent with concrete climate and development action. Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050: reaching a high of 19.1 million, 9.4 million, and 1.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario. A special focus on the 5-kilometer coastal zone of West Africa reveals that between 0.3 million and 2.2 million people could be compelled to move within their countries just for this coastal belt by 2050. This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that West African countries are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration –the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.
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“Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, Bryan; Adamo, Susana; Maleki, David; Abu-Ata, Nathalie E.; Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko; Arora, Anmol; Chai-Onn, Tricia; Mills, Briar. 2021. Groundswell Africa: Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36404 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in the Lake Victoria Basin. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. Without concrete climate and development action, the five Lake Victoria Basin countries could see between 16.6 and 38.5 million people moving within their countries in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. Concrete climate and development action could reduce the scale of internal climate migration across the Basin countries by 30 percent. No country in the Lake Victoria Basin is immune to internal climate migration, but there are differences among countries depending on their demographic, economic, and climate trends. Tanzania and Uganda are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050, reaching a high of 16.6 million and 12.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario (which combines high emissions with unequal development pathways). This will be followed by Kenya (7.6 million), Rwanda (1.2 million), and Burundi (1.0 million). This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that the countries in the Basin are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration - the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)Between its natural wealth with diverse cultures, increasingly rapid urbanization, and some of the world’s most impressive wildlife, Tanzania strikes visitors as a country of diversity and dynamism. At the same time, the country is facing challenges from climate change that will put its people, policymakers, and ecosystems to a test. Migration has long been a strategy of Tanzanians to deal with adverse climatic conditions, but as this report illustrates, climate change will put further pressure on people to leave their homes and look for new opportunities elsewhere within the country’s borders. This study shows that Tanzania could see as many as 16.6 million internal climate migrants by 2050. Immediate, rapid and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community, and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration, on average, by about 27 percent.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)Uganda is a diverse and verdant country. From the tall volcanic mountains along the eastern and western borders to the densely forested wetlands of the Albert Nile River and the rainforests in the center of the country, it encompasses many different ecosystems. Kampala, the capital city, is built around seven hills not far from the shores of Lake Victoria. These varying landscapes provide Ugandans with ample resources to capitalize on tourism and cultivate crops, including Ugandan coffee, which has become a favorite of coffee drinkers around the world. These rich and beautiful landscapes, however, are under threat from climate change, which could have disastrous effects for Ugandans. This report shows that by 2050, as many as 12 million people, or 11 percent of the population could move within Uganda because of slow onset climate factors, without concrete climate and development action. Immediate, rapid, and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration by about 35 per cent. Contextualizing the results from an innovative climate migration model applied to Lake Victoria Basin countries, it finds that such climate-induced migration, if unattended, may deepen existing vulnerabilities across the country, potentially leading to greater poverty, fragility, and conflict. As lives, livelihoods, and the economy are integrally linked to the environment, addressing climate change is an imperative for Uganda. Adopting inclusive development policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and integrate climate resilience could decrease the number of internal migrants significantly. Acting early and focusing on improved management of forest and other landscapes, developing local job opportunities, and providing basic services for both host communities and refugees will be important to help these communities survive and thrive in a changing climate. The right mix of policies would also encourage the ingenuity and energy of Uganda’s youthful population, which is projected to almost triple by 2050.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)The World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050, internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than 1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the population, at the high end of the confidence interval under the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the critical need for both inclusive development and low emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with the greatest gains achieved through early action.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)The World Bank’s flagship report, Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration (Rigaud et al. 2018), and the sequel (Clement et al. 2021), finds that that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility. An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region (Rigaud et al. 2021a). The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 27.3 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent 3.48 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. Nigeria has a long history of mobility, and migration patterns have historically been dynamic. The migration towards north-central zones as well as southward toward Lagos and other coastal cities is influenced by climate change and environmental conditions as well as better economic opportunities. In recent years, severe floods have led to loss of lives, housing and infrastructure, and compelled Nigerians to move out of areas affected by the disasters.
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Publication Groundswell Part 2(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-09-13)This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports’ combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends. They also highlight the far-sighted planning needed to meet this challenge and ensure positive and sustainable development outcomes. The combined results across the six regions show that without early and concerted climate and development action, as many as 216 million people could move within their own countries due to slow-onset climate change impacts by 2050. They will migrate from areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by sea-level rise and storm surges. Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050. The reports also finds that rapid and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, could significantly reduce the scale of internal climate migration.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)The World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050, internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than 1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the population, at the high end of the confidence interval under the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the critical need for both inclusive development and low emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with the greatest gains achieved through early action.Publication Groundswell(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-03-19)This report, which focuses on three regions—Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America that together represent 55 percent of the developing world’s population—finds that climate change will push tens of millions of people to migrate within their countries by 2050. It projects that without concrete climate and development action, just over 143 million people—or around 2.8 percent of the population of these three regions—could be forced to move within their own countries to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change. They will migrate from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. The poorest and most climate vulnerable areas will be hardest hit. These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climate-sensitive sectors and for the adequacy of infrastructure and social support systems. The report finds that internal climate migration will likely rise through 2050 and then accelerate unless there are significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions and robust development action.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)Uganda is a diverse and verdant country. From the tall volcanic mountains along the eastern and western borders to the densely forested wetlands of the Albert Nile River and the rainforests in the center of the country, it encompasses many different ecosystems. Kampala, the capital city, is built around seven hills not far from the shores of Lake Victoria. These varying landscapes provide Ugandans with ample resources to capitalize on tourism and cultivate crops, including Ugandan coffee, which has become a favorite of coffee drinkers around the world. These rich and beautiful landscapes, however, are under threat from climate change, which could have disastrous effects for Ugandans. This report shows that by 2050, as many as 12 million people, or 11 percent of the population could move within Uganda because of slow onset climate factors, without concrete climate and development action. Immediate, rapid, and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration by about 35 per cent. Contextualizing the results from an innovative climate migration model applied to Lake Victoria Basin countries, it finds that such climate-induced migration, if unattended, may deepen existing vulnerabilities across the country, potentially leading to greater poverty, fragility, and conflict. As lives, livelihoods, and the economy are integrally linked to the environment, addressing climate change is an imperative for Uganda. Adopting inclusive development policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and integrate climate resilience could decrease the number of internal migrants significantly. Acting early and focusing on improved management of forest and other landscapes, developing local job opportunities, and providing basic services for both host communities and refugees will be important to help these communities survive and thrive in a changing climate. The right mix of policies would also encourage the ingenuity and energy of Uganda’s youthful population, which is projected to almost triple by 2050.