Publication:
Groundswell Africa: Internal Climate Migration in West African Countries

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dc.contributor.authorRigaud, Kanta Kumari
dc.contributor.authorde Sherbinin, Alex
dc.contributor.authorJones, Bryan
dc.contributor.authorAdamo, Susana
dc.contributor.authorMaleki, David
dc.contributor.authorAbu-Ata, Nathalie E.
dc.contributor.authorCasals Fernandez, Anna Taeko
dc.contributor.authorArora, Anmol
dc.contributor.authorChai-Onn, Tricia
dc.contributor.authorMills, Briar
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-26T19:21:07Z
dc.date.available2021-10-26T19:21:07Z
dc.date.issued2021-10-18
dc.description.abstractThis report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. The study finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. These numbers are not predestined—and could be reduced at the regional level by about 60 percent with concrete climate and development action. Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050: reaching a high of 19.1 million, 9.4 million, and 1.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario. A special focus on the 5-kilometer coastal zone of West Africa reveals that between 0.3 million and 2.2 million people could be compelled to move within their countries just for this coastal belt by 2050. This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that West African countries are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration –the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/453241634531082194/Groundswell-Africa-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-West-African-Countries
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/36404
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/36404
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectCLIMATE CHANGE
dc.subjectCLIMATE MIGRATION
dc.subjectENVIRONMENTAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectDISPLACEMENT
dc.subjectINTERNAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHICS
dc.subjectGREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
dc.subjectCOASTAL ECOSYSTEM
dc.subjectSEA LEVEL RISE
dc.subjectEROSION
dc.titleGroundswell Africaen
dc.titleGroundswell Afriquefr
dc.title.subtitleInternal Climate Migration in West African Countriesen
dc.title.subtitleMigrations climatiques internes dans les pays d’Afrique de l’Ouestfr
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.associatedcontenthttps://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/africa-climate-business-plan
okr.crossref.titleGroundswell Africa
okr.date.disclosure2021-10-18
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-05T11:48:26.166394Z
okr.date.lastmodified2021-10-13T00:00:00Zen
okr.doctypePublications & Research
okr.doctypePublications & Research::Working Paper
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/undefined/453241634531082194/Groundswell-Africa-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-West-African-Countries
okr.guid116461635276391335
okr.guid453241634531082194
okr.guid842331635276085028
okr.guid421161635275646349
okr.guid216911635276688882
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b088a792e7_1_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33486926
okr.identifier.report165167
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.language.supportedfr
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/453241634531082194/pdf/Groundswell-Africa-Internal-Climate-Migration-in-West-African-Countries.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeAfrica
okr.region.countryBenin
okr.region.countryBurkina Faso
okr.region.countryMali
okr.region.countryNiger
okr.region.countryNigeria
okr.region.countrySenegal
okr.region.geographicalWest Africa
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change Impacts
okr.topicEnvironment::Climate Change and Environment
okr.topicEnvironment::Environmental Disasters & Degradation
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Migration and Development
okr.topicSocial Development::Social Aspects of Climate Change
okr.unitEnvironment, Natural Resources and Blue Economy Global Practice
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