Publication: Groundswell Africa: A Deep Dive Into Internal Climate Migration in Uganda
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2021-10-18
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2021-11-02
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Uganda is a diverse and verdant country. From the tall volcanic mountains along the eastern and western borders to the densely forested wetlands of the Albert Nile River and the rainforests in the center of the country, it encompasses many different ecosystems. Kampala, the capital city, is built around seven hills not far from the shores of Lake Victoria. These varying landscapes provide Ugandans with ample resources to capitalize on tourism and cultivate crops, including Ugandan coffee, which has become a favorite of coffee drinkers around the world. These rich and beautiful landscapes, however, are under threat from climate change, which could have disastrous effects for Ugandans. This report shows that by 2050, as many as 12 million people, or 11 percent of the population could move within Uganda because of slow onset climate factors, without concrete climate and development action. Immediate, rapid, and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration by about 35 per cent. Contextualizing the results from an innovative climate migration model applied to Lake Victoria Basin countries, it finds that such climate-induced migration, if unattended, may deepen existing vulnerabilities across the country, potentially leading to greater poverty, fragility, and conflict. As lives, livelihoods, and the economy are integrally linked to the environment, addressing climate change is an imperative for Uganda. Adopting inclusive development policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and integrate climate resilience could decrease the number of internal migrants significantly. Acting early and focusing on improved management of forest and other landscapes, developing local job opportunities, and providing basic services for both host communities and refugees will be important to help these communities survive and thrive in a changing climate. The right mix of policies would also encourage the ingenuity and energy of Uganda’s youthful population, which is projected to almost triple by 2050.
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“Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, Bryan; Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko; Adamo, Susan. 2021. Groundswell Africa: A Deep Dive Into Internal Climate Migration in Uganda. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36447 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. The study finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. 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This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that West African countries are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration –the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in the Lake Victoria Basin. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. Without concrete climate and development action, the five Lake Victoria Basin countries could see between 16.6 and 38.5 million people moving within their countries in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. Concrete climate and development action could reduce the scale of internal climate migration across the Basin countries by 30 percent. No country in the Lake Victoria Basin is immune to internal climate migration, but there are differences among countries depending on their demographic, economic, and climate trends. Tanzania and Uganda are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050, reaching a high of 16.6 million and 12.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario (which combines high emissions with unequal development pathways). This will be followed by Kenya (7.6 million), Rwanda (1.2 million), and Burundi (1.0 million). This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. 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In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. 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These spatial population shifts will represent 3.48 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. Nigeria has a long history of mobility, and migration patterns have historically been dynamic. The migration towards north-central zones as well as southward toward Lagos and other coastal cities is influenced by climate change and environmental conditions as well as better economic opportunities. In recent years, severe floods have led to loss of lives, housing and infrastructure, and compelled Nigerians to move out of areas affected by the disasters.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)Between its natural wealth with diverse cultures, increasingly rapid urbanization, and some of the world’s most impressive wildlife, Tanzania strikes visitors as a country of diversity and dynamism. At the same time, the country is facing challenges from climate change that will put its people, policymakers, and ecosystems to a test. Migration has long been a strategy of Tanzanians to deal with adverse climatic conditions, but as this report illustrates, climate change will put further pressure on people to leave their homes and look for new opportunities elsewhere within the country’s borders. This study shows that Tanzania could see as many as 16.6 million internal climate migrants by 2050. Immediate, rapid and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community, and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration, on average, by about 27 percent.
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