Publication:
Living Up to Potential in the Wake of Adverse Shocks: Inclusive Growth - Tested Again (Part 1)

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (3.85 MB)
146 downloads
English Text (190.02 KB)
23 downloads
Published
2022/07/14
ISSN
Date
2022-07-15
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The world has been hit by two destabilizing shocks in quick succession. The COVID-19 pandemic induced the sharpest peacetime recession in the European Union (EU) in 2020, reversing recent progress in rising living standards and leaving deep economic scars among the vulnerable populations. The economic recovery was robust, with most of the EU member economies recovering to pre-pandemic levels in 2021 (Figure ES1, panel a). With strong growth prospects, the resumption of income convergence was in sight. Then, in February 2022, the Russia – Ukraine war began, and the global impact of the war has been substantial. Part 1 of this report discusses the trends in inclusive growth in the EU over the past year with a focus on the following four regions: Northern Europe, Western Europe, Southern Europe and Central and Southeast Europe. Depending on data availability, it also zooms in on a set of selected countries: Romania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Poland. Part 1 of this report also discusses short-term prospects, highlighting the key risks to the outlook.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank. 2022. Living Up to Potential in the Wake of Adverse Shocks: Inclusive Growth - Tested Again (Part 1). EU Regular Economic Report;No.8. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37714 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Living Up to Potential in the Wake of Adverse Shocks
    (Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022-07-15) World Bank
    This report discusses long-term growth prospects in four EU countries — Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland and Romania. It brings together the key anticipated structural trends in the EU over the next decade to construct a baseline for potential growth by 2030. Thereafter, it quantifies the impact of policy reform scenarios on potential growth. These reforms have been selected based on the most pressing needs for longer-term growth in the four focus countries, national targets and plans—with modeling constraints also a key consideration. These reforms include: (i) boosting labor force participation to counter the effects of an ageing population; (ii) increasing the average years of education; (iii) improving EU fund absorption rate to enhance investments; (iv) increasing the index of institutional quality to demonstrate the impact of strengthening institutions; and (v) increasing research and development (R&D) spending to accelerate the digital transition. The report also quantifies the combined impact of these reforms and their effect on the convergence process.
  • Publication
    Green Fiscal Reforms
    (Washington, DC, 2022-04-14) World Bank
    In the post-pandemic world, EU member states will need to embrace two simultaneous challenges. These will include recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic and embracing the ambitions of the European Green Deal, which maps out broad policies aimed at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and reducing emissions by 55 percent by 2030. Compared to the emissions reduction achieved during 1990–2018 by the EU27 countries, the 2018–30 target is 50 percent more ambitious and is to be achieved in a third of the time. Meanwhile, the emissions reduction planned during 2030–50 will be even steeper. The transition in some EU countries will be particularly challenging, given their high energy intensity, significant dependence on fossil fuels for power generation and an increasing and environmentally unfriendly transport fleet. In addition, households will need to be supported in the transition, to avoid a substantial share of the population being adversely affected.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2021
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-16) World Bank
    COVID-19 (coronavirus) has taken a heavy economic and human toll globally and in Indonesia. According to official statistics, over 3.8 million people have died from COVID as of May 2021. The global economy experienced one of the most severe recessions, shrinking by 3.5 percent in 2020 compared to 1.7 percent in 2009 during the global financial crisis. The recession in Indonesia (-2.1 percent) was milder than among Emerging Markets and Developing Economies, EMDEs (-4.3 percent excluding China). Small and medium-sized firms and businesses in contact-intensive services sectors were severely affected. About 1.8 million Indonesians became unemployed between February 2020 and 2021 and another 3.2 million people exited the labour force. Three hundred thousand fewer youth entered the labour market. About 2.8 million people have fallen into poverty as of September 2020 with the government’s social assistance program mitigating a potentially worse outcome. Indonesia's recovery has been relatively gradual until the first quarter of 2021 but has accelerated more recently. Indonesia’s recovery gap – the difference between real GDP and its pre-crisis trend – narrowed from -7.5 to -7.1 percent between Q2 and Q4 2020. By comparison, the average 'recovery gap' among regional and G20 peers shrank from -13.6 to -5.1 percent. The recovery gap remained elevated at -7.9 percent during the first quarter this year. Consumption and investment growth have been subdued due to the still weak labor market and high uncertainty while trade has recovered more strongly. The recovery gap in contact-intensive services sectors, such as transport and accommodation, has also been elevated compared to manufacturing industries due to social distancing and stronger external demand in manufacturing. But retail sales increased by 11 percent between March and April while the manufacturing continued to expand suggesting a stronger rebound during the second quarter.
  • Publication
    Inclusive Growth at a Crossroads
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-07-21) World Bank
    The period of the COVID-19 pandemic will be marked and remembered. It will certainly be known for the ongoing health crisis that has reverberated across the world, leading to significant social impacts, rising inequality and poverty rates, and the steepest recession in Europe since World War II. It could, however, also be known as the trigger for a shift towards policies that will enhance developmental and environmental outcomes. With economies at a crossroads, it is up to governments to make this shift happen. Countries in Europe will need to ensure a green, resilient and inclusive recovery. This report explores the impacts of COVID-19 on inclusive growth and considers the policies that are needed to strengthen resilience and to ensure that inclusivity is woven into the fabric of societies.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2022
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-06) World Bank
    The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened the slowdown in global growth. In particular, the war in Ukraine is leading to soaring prices and volatility in energy markets, with improvements in activity in energy exporters more than offset by headwinds to activity in most other economies. The invasion of Ukraine has also led to a significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, which is exacerbating food insecurity and extreme poverty in many emerging market and developing economies. Numerous risks could further derail what is now a precarious recovery. Among them is, in particular, the possibility of stubbornly high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth, reminiscent of the stagflation of the 1970s. This could eventually result in a sharp tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies to rein in inflation, lead to surging borrowing costs, and possibly culminate in financial stress in some emerging market and developing economies. A forceful and wide-ranging policy response is required by policy makers in these economies and the global community to boost growth, bolster macroeconomic frameworks, reduce financial vulnerabilities, provide support to vulnerable population groups, and attenuate the long-term impacts of the global shocks of recent years.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    World Development Report 2011
    (World Bank, 2011) World Bank
    The 2011 World development report looks across disciplines and experiences drawn from around the world to offer some ideas and practical recommendations on how to move beyond conflict and fragility and secure development. The key messages are important for all countries-low, middle, and high income-as well as for regional and global institutions: first, institutional legitimacy is the key to stability. When state institutions do not adequately protect citizens, guard against corruption, or provide access to justice; when markets do not provide job opportunities; or when communities have lost social cohesion-the likelihood of violent conflict increases. Second, investing in citizen security, justice, and jobs is essential to reducing violence. But there are major structural gaps in our collective capabilities to support these areas. Third, confronting this challenge effectively means that institutions need to change. International agencies and partners from other countries must adapt procedures so they can respond with agility and speed, a longer-term perspective, and greater staying power. Fourth, need to adopt a layered approach. Some problems can be addressed at the country level, but others need to be addressed at a regional level, such as developing markets that integrate insecure areas and pooling resources for building capacity Fifth, in adopting these approaches, need to be aware that the global landscape is changing. Regional institutions and middle income countries are playing a larger role. This means should pay more attention to south-south and south-north exchanges, and to the recent transition experiences of middle income countries.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Doing Business 2014 : Understanding Regulations for Small and Medium-Size Enterprises
    (Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2013-10-28) World Bank; International Finance Corporation
    Eleventh in a series of annual reports comparing business regulation in 185 economies, Doing Business 2014 measures regulations affecting 11 areas of everyday business activity: Starting a business, Dealing with construction permits, Getting electricity, Registering property, Getting credit, Protecting investors, Paying taxes, Trading across borders, Enforcing contracts, Closing a business, Employing workers. The report updates all indicators as of June 1, 2013, ranks economies on their overall “ease of doing business”, and analyzes reforms to business regulation – identifying which economies are strengthening their business environment the most. The Doing Business reports illustrate how reforms in business regulations are being used to analyze economic outcomes for domestic entrepreneurs and for the wider economy. Doing Business is a flagship product by the World Bank and IFC that garners worldwide attention on regulatory barriers to entrepreneurship. More than 60 economies use the Doing Business indicators to shape reform agendas and monitor improvements on the ground. In addition, the Doing Business data has generated over 870 articles in peer-reviewed academic journals since its inception.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.