Publication: Global Economic Prospects, June 2022
Loading...
Files in English
132,031 downloads
25,256 downloads
8,844 downloads
15,678 downloads
Published
2022-06
ISSN
Date
2022-03-28
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened the slowdown in global growth. In particular, the war in Ukraine is leading to soaring prices and volatility in energy markets, with improvements in activity in energy exporters more than offset by headwinds to activity in most other economies. The invasion of Ukraine has also led to a significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, which is exacerbating food insecurity and extreme poverty in many emerging market and developing economies. Numerous risks could further derail what is now a precarious recovery. Among them is, in particular, the possibility of stubbornly high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth, reminiscent of the stagflation of the 1970s. This could eventually result in a sharp tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies to rein in inflation, lead to surging borrowing costs, and possibly culminate in financial stress in some emerging market and developing economies. A forceful and wide-ranging policy response is required by policy makers in these economies and the global community to boost growth, bolster macroeconomic frameworks, reduce financial vulnerabilities, provide support to vulnerable population groups, and attenuate the long-term impacts of the global shocks of recent years.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2022. Global Economic Prospects, June 2022. Global Economic Prospects;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37224 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2022(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-01-11)The global recovery is set to decelerate amid diminished policy support, continued COVID-19 flare-ups, and lingering supply bottlenecks. In contrast to that in advanced economies, output in emerging market and developing economies will remain markedly below pre-pandemic trends over the forecast horizon. The outlook is clouded by various downside risks, including new COVID-19 outbreaks, the possibility of de-anchored inflation expectations, and financial stress in a context of record-high debt levels. If some countries eventually require debt restructuring, this will be more difficult to achieve than in the past. Climate change may increase commodity price volatility, creating challenges for the almost two-thirds of emerging market and developing economies that rely heavily on commodity exports and highlighting the need for asset diversification. Social tensions may heighten as a result of the increase in inequality caused by the pandemic. These challenges underscore the importance of strengthened global cooperation to promote a green, resilient, and inclusive recovery path.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2011(2011-06)The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth. Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. Several annexes address regional and sartorial issues in much greater detail.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2012(Washington, DC, 2012-06)The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis.Publication South Asia Economic Focus, June 2011 : Food Inflation(Washington, DC, 2011-06)This report focuses on the impact of policies and exogenous shocks on food inflation. It deals with four elements: 1) the pass-through of global food (and other commodity) prices, 2) macroeconomic policies, 3) market regulation and short-term supply shocks, and 4) long-term structural shifts and the terms of trade between agriculture and other sectors of the economy. This report examines food and overall inflation trends in South Asia, which is experiencing relatively high inflation, and is home to a large number of poor. There are many more poor people who are net buyers of food than there are those who benefit from higher prices of agricultural products even in the predominantly rural countries of South Asia. The report examines both short-term and longer-term drivers of rising food prices in the region, including developments in international commodity prices, domestic supply shocks, accommodative demand side policies, structural changes in demand patterns, and long-term agricultural productivity trends. The impact on poverty is examined, as is the region's preparedness for food price shocks. The priorities laid out in the Bank's post-crisis directions paper (2010) and the mandates given to the Bank by the G20 are to focus on food price volatility, agriculture and food security, and agricultural productivity. In line with these priorities, the report ends with some policy directions to manage the macroeconomic impact of food price inflation, and the potential spillover into generalized inflation, to manage the social impact of the food price hikes, and to hedge against risks associated with food price volatility. The report is organized as follows: section two discusses the anatomy and short- and longer-run drivers of food and overall inflation in South Asia. Section three discusses the impact of government policies affecting agricultural marketing, inputs and trade in South Asian countries. Section four presents an assessment of the impact of food price increases on poverty and an assessment of the preparedness of South Asian countries social protection schemes to cope with this impact. Section five concludes with some policy directions that could be pursued by South Asia to improve agricultural productivity and mitigate the impact of food price volatility on its population.Publication India Economic Update, June 2011(Washington, DC, 2011-06)In fiscal year 2010-11, India's economy has expanded at a rate close to that observed prior to the global financial crisis. However, growth in the second half of the year slowed, and the performance of industry and investment has been particularly disappointing. Despite some fiscal consolidation and monetary tightening, inflation has emerged as a serious concern because of its effects on the poor, who are usually less able to protect themselves against rising prices, and because of its dampening effects on long-term investment, which is sensitive to interest rate expectations. India's economic growth reached 8.5 percent, helped by a strong rebound of the agriculture sector because of good rains in the 2010 monsoon season against the near-drought conditions of 2009. On the external side, exports staged an extraordinary recovery and the current account deficit narrowed, while capital flows slowed driven by a pronounced decline in foreign direct investment. Foreign institutional investment remained robust, however, and external borrowing increased to compensate partially for the decline in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). The rupee remained stable against the U.S. dollar but showed a small real appreciation against a 36-currency trade weighted index, and Reserve Bank of India foreign reserves increased to more than $310 billion. The central government budget deficit for FY2010-11 is estimated to have reached 6 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an important contraction from the widened fiscal stance of FY2009-10. Budget implementation benefited from higher-than-expected growth in nominal GDP and related higher tax intake; although the tax-to-GDP ratio is still significantly lower than in FY2007-08. The spending-to-GDP ratio, on the other hand, was reduced by 0.7 percent of GDP despite two supplementary demands for grants.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-01-10)Global growth is projected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs, and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03)Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2022(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-26)The war in Ukraine has caused major supply disruptions and led to historically higher prices for a number of commodities. Most commodity prices are now expected to see sharp increases in 2022 and remain high in the medium term. The price of Brent crude oil is projected to average $100/bbl in 2022, a 40 percent increase from 2021. Non-energy prices are expected to rise by about 20 percent in 2022, with the largest increases in commodities where Russia or Ukraine are key exporters. Wheat prices in particular are forecast to increase more than 40 percent this year. While price pressures are expected to ease in 2023, commodity prices will remain much higher than previously expected. The outlook depends on the duration of the war and the severity of disruptions to commodity flows. A Special Focus section investigates the impact of the war on commodity markets and compares the current episode with previous price spikes. It finds that previous oil price spikes led to the emergence of new sources of supplies and reduced demand in response to efficiency improvements and substitution to other commodities. In the case of food, new land was made available for food production. For policymakers, a short-term priority is providing targeted support to poorer households facing higher food and energy prices. For longer-lasting solutions, they facilitate investment in new sources of zero-carbon energy.Publication World Bank East Asia and Pacific Economic Update - Spring 2022(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-04)Amidst a fragile recovery, three clouds are gathering over the economic horizon: US inflation could provoke financial tightening, China’s structural slowdown and zero-COVID-19 policy could dampen regional exports, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could disrupt food and fuel supplies, spook financial markets, and undermine business confidence. Counterposed against these risks, are three opportunities. First, shifts in the patterns of comparative advantage are creating new niches in both goods and services trade. Second, the diffusion of technologies could boost productivity. Finally, new green technologies could allow countries to cut carbon emissions without unacceptable cuts in consumption or growth. Accordingly, policy action must help countries to both affect the risk and grasp the opportunities. We begin by addressing three proximate questions: What is happening to the economies? Why? And what can we expect? We then discuss the policy options that can help East Asia and Pacific economies weather the shocks and ensure sustainable growth.