Publication: Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2021: Boosting the Recovery
Loading...
Files in English
35,150 downloads
Published
2021-06-16
ISSN
Date
2021-06-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
COVID-19 (coronavirus) has taken a heavy economic and human toll globally and in Indonesia. According to official statistics, over 3.8 million people have died from COVID as of May 2021. The global economy experienced one of the most severe recessions, shrinking by 3.5 percent in 2020 compared to 1.7 percent in 2009 during the global financial crisis. The recession in Indonesia (-2.1 percent) was milder than among Emerging Markets and Developing Economies, EMDEs (-4.3 percent excluding China). Small and medium-sized firms and businesses in contact-intensive services sectors were severely affected. About 1.8 million Indonesians became unemployed between February 2020 and 2021 and another 3.2 million people exited the labour force. Three hundred thousand fewer youth entered the labour market. About 2.8 million people have fallen into poverty as of September 2020 with the government’s social assistance program mitigating a potentially worse outcome. Indonesia's recovery has been relatively gradual until the first quarter of 2021 but has accelerated more recently. Indonesia’s recovery gap – the difference between real GDP and its pre-crisis trend – narrowed from -7.5 to -7.1 percent between Q2 and Q4 2020. By comparison, the average 'recovery gap' among regional and G20 peers shrank from -13.6 to -5.1 percent. The recovery gap remained elevated at -7.9 percent during the first quarter this year. Consumption and investment growth have been subdued due to the still weak labor market and high uncertainty while trade has recovered more strongly. The recovery gap in contact-intensive services sectors, such as transport and accommodation, has also been elevated compared to manufacturing industries due to social distancing and stronger external demand in manufacturing. But retail sales increased by 11 percent between March and April while the manufacturing continued to expand suggesting a stronger rebound during the second quarter.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2021. Indonesia Economic Prospects, June 2021: Boosting the Recovery. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35762 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Uganda Economic Update, 18th Edition, December 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-12)Uganda’s economy was recovering well, up until the second wave of COVID-19 infections and subsequent lockdown in mid-2021. Since then, activity has rebounded – much like after the first lockdown – but the country is likely to still face a stop-start recovery until there is wider coverage of the COVID-19 vaccine. Notwithstanding this recovery, there has been a rise in poverty and – with the shift back to agriculture for some workers – an increase in household vulnerabilities. We have also seen a widening of inequalities, which have been most severe in the education sector, where schools have now been fully or partially closed for longer than any other country in the world. As a result, Uganda has a long way to go in its quest to build-back-better. Eighteenth Uganda Economic Update includes the special topic of Putting Women at the Center of Uganda’s Economic Revival. In line with the structure of earlier editions of the Uganda Economic Update series, this report reviews recent economic developments – with particular attention paid to the effects of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic – provides an outlook for the macro-economy, and then delves into the special topic.Publication Cambodia Economic Update, June 2021(World Bank, Phnom Penh, 2021-06-15)After contracting by 3.1 percent in 2020, Cambodia’s economy has gradually recovered. The recovery is, however, uneven, partial, and volatile in part due to the re-introduction of a domestic lockdown, triggered by recent flare-ups of coronavirus infections. Like many countries in the region, Cambodia has been hit hard by global demand shock and coronavirus-related shutdowns which have had predictably uneven economic impacts across sectors. The agriculture sector has been relatively resilient in the face of the coronavirus shock. In addition, it has been boosted by increased investment, thanks to good prospects of the newly signed Cambodia-China Free Trade Agreement (CCFTA) and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).The manufacturing sector sharply contracted last year, but appears to have gradually recovered since, as it has adapted to changing external conditions. The easing of the traditional manufacturing industries, namely garment, footwear, and travel (GFT) goods has been partly offset by the expansion of the newly emerging manufacturing (electrical, electronic and vehicle parts including bicycles) and agroprocessing industries. Parts of the services sector such as accommodation, restaurants and transport continue to be hit hard by slowdown in domestic and international tourism, while wholesale and retail trade has managed to slowly recover, supported by a gradual revival in domestic economic activity.Publication Kenya Economic Update, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-28)The pandemic has dealt a major blow to the economy, but the government’s quick policy responses have helped to cushion the impact, and a partial recovery is underway. In response to the improving conditions, many of the tax and regulatory relief measures extended at the onset of the crisis have been discontinued. The economy is expected to continue to recover and gradually return to growth of above 5 percent. The near-term economic outlook for Kenya, as elsewhere, remains unusually uncertain and contingent on the course of the pandemic.Publication Iraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)Recognizing the severity of the crisis, the GoI devised a national reform plan (the white paper) that sets out a old blueprint of structural reforms to achieve sustainable medium-term growth through economic diversification and boosting private sector growth and private sector job creation. The GoI has also devised an implementation and governance framework for the white paper in which it proposed a detailed reform matrix and launched a High Reform Council headed by the Prime Minister to accompany the implementation. Actions have already been realized starting with the reforms adopted in the 2021 budget law and other areas including in the business environment and the financial sector. The ultimate success of the reforms though depends on the political will and public support to implement the proposed measures and lead the country out of a long-standing fragility trap. Iraq's economic outlook hinges on global oil markets prospects, the implementation of the white paper reforms, and on the evolution of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The economy is forecast to gradually recover on the back of rising oil prices and rising OPEC+ production quotas. GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2021 and 6.3 percent on average over the subsequent two years (Table 1). Non-oil GDP is forecast to recover in 2021, growing by 5.5 percent before converging to historically low potential growth trend in 2022–23. The currency devaluation is estimated to push inflation to 8.5 percent in 2021 due to limited capacity for import substitution. This will present an additional pressure on Iraqi households' wellbeing. The fiscal stance remains expansionary with only limited reform measures being included in the 2021 budget law after an extended deliberation in the Parliament. Higher oil revenues in tandem with the devaluation effect on those receipts are projected to narrow the fiscal deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021. Financing needs are forecast to remain elevated compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, averaging at 13.7 billion Dollars per year (7.5 percent of GDP) in the outlook period (2021–2023). The 2021 approved budget includes limited reforms such as new consumption taxes and better targeting of PDS transfers which are in line with the GoI white paper. If implemented they could help moderate the fiscal deficit and exchange rate pressures. However, more structural issues such as public wages and pension rigidities remain unaddressed.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-22)In recent months, there has been a steep increase in the number of daily new cases and, more disturbingly, in the number of deaths. While it took almost one year for Malaysia to record its first 100,000 cases, the increase in the number of new cases between April to May 2021 alone amounted to more than 100,000. Similarly, while it took about one year for cumulative deaths to reach 500, the cumulative number of deaths in the first two weeks of June alone was more than 500. Even more worryingly, the number of brought-in dead (BID) cases also rose sharply; in May 2021, BID cases accounted for nearly one-third of total deaths. The severity of the current wave has raised concerns regarding the overall capacity of the health system. With the number of new cases and death rates continuing to climb at a rapid rate, the health system has been operating at close to its maximum capacity, with most intensive care units (ICUs) running at nearly 100 percent capacity. At the same time, key containment measures, including mass testing and contact tracing, have not been fully or effectively implemented. In addition, the rollout of the country’s vaccination program is being affected by delayed vaccine supply and high vaccine hesitancy, although there are some signs that the pace has picked up recently. To curb the spread of the pandemic and to ease the burden on the health system, the government has reimposed the movement control order (MCO). Initially, the terms of the MCO allowed for most economic sectors to continue to operate. However, with the number of cases remaining high and with no signs of abatement, the government subsequently announced a full lockdown, with only key essential services allowed to operate. The Ministry of Health has indicated that it may take between 3-4 months to flatten the curve of the pandemic.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Urbanization and Growth : Commission on Growth and Development(World Bank, 2009)Structural change is a key driver of rapid growth: countries diversify into new industries, firms learn new things, people move to new locations. Anything that slows this structural change is also likely to slow growth. Because urbanization is one of the most important enabling parallel processes in rapid growth, making it work well is critical. Urbanization's contribution to growth comes from two sources: the difference between rural and urban productivity levels and more rapid productivity change in cities. In the early decades of development, when the majority of the population is still rural, the jump from rural to urban employment makes a big contribution to growth. As cities grow larger, the second effect faster gains in urban productivity - begins to dominate, as it operates on a larger base. Mortgages can improve households' ability to buy decent housing. But finance relaxes demand constraints only. Unless it is accompanied by measures to increase supply, better finance may result in overshooting prices. This volatility can jeopardize macroeconomic stability. In a typical pattern, strong income growth leads to a rapid increase in housing demand. An injection of liquidity from some source, often overseas, may help over stimulate the market, leading to over optimism and a dangerous concentration of wealth in real estate.Publication Vietnam(World Bank, Hanoi, 2020-05-01)Following from Vietnam’s ratification of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in late 2018 and its effectiveness from January 2019, and the European Parliament’s recent approval of the European Union-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) and its subsequent planned ratification by the National Assembly in May 2020, Vietnam has further demonstrated its determination to be a modern, competitive, open economy. As the COVID-19 (Coronavirus) crisis has clearly shown, diversified markets and supply chains will be key in the future global context to managing the risk of disruptions in trade and in supply chains due to changing trade relationships, climate change, natural disasters, and disease outbreaks. In those regards, Vietnam is in a stronger position than most countries in the region. The benefits of globalization are increasingly being debated and questioned. However, in the case of Vietnam, the benefits have been clear in terms of high and consistent economic growth and a large reduction in poverty levels. As Vietnam moves to ratify and implement a new generation of free trade agreements (FTAs), such as the CPTPP and EVFTA, it is important to clearly demonstrate, in a transparent manner, the economic gains and distributional impacts (such as sectoral and poverty) from joining these FTAs. In the meantime, it is crucial to highlight the legal gaps that must be addressed to ensure that national laws and regulations are in compliance with Vietnam’s obligations under these FTAs. Readiness to implement this new generation of FTAs at both the national and subnational level is important to ensure that the country maximizes the full economic benefits in terms of trade and investment. This report explores the issues of globalization and the integration of Vietnam into the global economy, particularly through implementation of the EVFTA.Publication Doing Business 2009 : Comparing Regulation in 181 Economies(Washington, DC : World Bank and Palgave Macmillon, 2008)Doing Business 2009 is the sixth in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 181 economies from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe and over time. Regulations affecting 10 stages of the life of a business are measured: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business. Data in Doing Business 2009 are current as of June 1, 2008. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms have worked, where, and why. The methodology for the legal rights of lenders and borrowers, part of the getting credit indicators, changed for Doing Business 2009. The paper includes the following headings: overview, starting a business, dealing with construction permits, employing workers, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, and closing a business.Publication Economy Profile of United States(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-11-01)Doing Business 2018 is the 15th in a series of annual reports investigating the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. This economy profile presents the Doing Business indicators for United States. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulation and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 190 economies; for 2018 United States ranks 6. Doing Business measures aspects of regulation affecting 11 areas of the life of a business. Ten of these areas are included in this year’s ranking on the ease of doing business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and resolving insolvency. Doing Business also measures features of labor market regulation, which is not included in this year’s ranking. Data in Doing Business 2018 are current as of June 1, 2017. The indicators are used to analyze economic outcomes and identify what reforms of business regulation have worked, where and why.Publication Zambia Economic Brief, June 2015, Issue 5(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06-01)After several years of strong economic performance, Zambia now confronts several important challenges that must be managed carefully to ensure sustained and inclusive growth in the future. On the one hand, the economy grew by an estimated 5.5–6.0 percent in 2014, somewhat above the average for African economies. Monthly copper production increased by an average of 8 percent during the second half of 2014, reversing the sharp slide in early 2014. Inflation fell to 7.2 percent in March and April, helped both by falling world oil prices and by the Bank of Zambia’s monetary tightening. In the first half of 2015, the authorities adjusted several key economic policies to respond to serious problems: revising rules on VAT refunds in February, announcing a new mining fiscal regime in April, and raising fuel prices in May so that the government could recover import costs. On the other hand, the kwacha has come under renewed pressure. It lost 17 percent of its value against the U.S. dollar from December 2014 through the end of March 2015. Since then it has recovered somewhat, but foreign exchange markets remain volatile. Interest rates have been rising since September 2014, due in part to increased government borrowing and in part to steps taken by the Bank of Zambia to tighten credit. Over the medium term, growth should hold steady in 2015 and then accelerate to around 6–7 percent per year in 2016–2018. Although inflation is expected to rise towards the end of 2015, it should resume falling in 2016. Low commodity prices, a more stable exchange rate, and adequate local harvests would help contain inflationary pressures and boost real disposable incomes. The resulting pick-up in private consumption, coupled with increasing copper exports, should help strengthen growth prospects.