Publication:
Thailand Economic Monitor 2016: Services as a New Driver of Growth

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (4.5 MB)
147 downloads
English Text (50.62 KB)
22 downloads
Date
2016-12-31
ISSN
Published
2016-12-31
Editor(s)
Abstract
Economic growth is expected to attain 3.1 percent in both 2016 and 3.2 percent in 2017 accelerating from 2.8 percent last year with private consumption and public investment as key drivers as consumer sentiment recovers, households deleverage and large public infrastructure projects are implemented. The Thai economy decelerated to 3.2 percent in 2016Q3 compared to 3.5 percent in Q2 as public spending, private investment and private consumption slowed. A frm recovery has yet to take hold amid a slowdown in domestic demand in 2016Q3. Major drivers of growth associated with economic recovery such as private consumption and private investment have yet to show a broad-based and sustained expansion. Public spending and private consumption are projected to underpin growth in 2017 with headwinds from more uncertain global economic prospects. Continued commitment to implementing structural reforms is critical to raising the long-term growth path.
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank Group. 2016. Thailand Economic Monitor 2016: Services as a New Driver of Growth. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31239 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Thailand Economic Monitor, January 2020
    (World Bank, Bangkok, 2020-01-18) World Bank Group
    Thailand’s economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent in Q3 2019, driven by cyclical factors, notably weak external demand and heightened global uncertainty. The downturn has also exposed structural constraints, which is reflected in the sluggish growth of public and private investments. TheGovernment has responded swiftly to the growth slowdown, through accommodative monetary policies and countercyclical fiscal stimulus. Going forward, additional policies to enhance the effectiveness of the stimulus, with a focus on implementing major public investment projects andimproving the efficiency of public investment management could maximize the growth impact. In the long term, structural reforms such as enhancing competition in the domestic economy, increasing openness, and promoting an eco-system for firm innovation in order can boost productivity.
  • Publication
    Thailand Economic Monitor, July 2019
    (World Bank, Bangkok, 2019-07-08) World Bank Group
    The Thailand Economic Monitor (TEM) consists of two parts. Part 1 of the TEM reviews recent economic developments, examines the country’s macroeconomic outlook, and analyzes the impact of key policy changes. Part 2 focuses on a specific subject with critical implications for Thailand’s long-term growth prospects. This edition of the TEM analyzes the power of financial technology (fintech) to support financial inclusion, a key element of the 20-Year National Strategy.
  • Publication
    Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2016
    (World Bank, Bangkok, 2016-06-01) Ariyapruchya, Kiatipong; Sanchez Martin, Miguel Eduardo; Reungsri, Thanapat; Luo, Xubei
    The Thai economy shows signs of a nascent recovery but faces challenges on the path toward a broad-based and sustained recovery. The Thai economy accelerated to 2.8 percent in 2015, compared to 0.9 percent in 2014, partly on the basis of government consumption and investment, and partly on declining imports. Tourism and private consumption have mildly recovered, whereas merchandise exports dropped in the last quarter of 2015. Economic growth is expected to moderate to 2.5 percent in 2016 primarily due to sluggish exports of goods and private investment amid a slowing and difficult global environment. Fiscal stimulus and tourism receipts will remain key drivers of growth in 2016. Poverty rates are expected to fall at a slower rate, with poor households concentrated in rural areas affected by falling agricultural prices. Downside risks to economic growth include a hard landing in China accompanied by global financial turmoil as well as heightened domestic political uncertainty. Nevertheless, ample fiscal and monetary buffers, a sound financial sector and strong fundamentals will help Thailand weather shocks.
  • Publication
    Iraq Economic Monitor, Fall 2018
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10) World Bank Group
    Iraq’s overall security situation has notably improved after the defeat of ISIS, but significant challenges lie ahead. Iraq has witnessed major political and security transitions in 2017 when Prime Minister Al-Abadi announced in December the victory over ISIS after a war that lasted three years. The defeat of ISIS in Iraq left the government with the daunting tasks of rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, reconstruction of liberated areas, establishing security and stability,and providing services for the return of the displaced persons. On May 12, 2018 Iraq voted in parliamentary elections that delivered a win for a political bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr, while PM Al-Abadi’s bloc, once seen as front runner, came in third. The ballots have been recounted after allegations of fraud and completed on August 8th without major change. On September 15th, Iraq’s parliament elected lawmaker Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker, marking a major step towards establishing a new government. On October 2nd, Iraq’s parliament elected as president Barham Salih,who immediately named Adel Abdul Mahdi Prime Minister-designate, ending months of deadlock afterthe national election in May.
  • Publication
    Iran Economic Monitor, March 2016
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) World Bank
    Following the partial lifting of nuclear-related sanctions in November 2013 under the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), Iran's economy rebounded in 20141 and is estimated to have expanded by 0.5 percent in 2015. A less accommodative monetary policy stance reduced inflationary pressures, with the Consumer Price Index falling to 8.9 percent in February 2016, from a peak of 45.1 percent in June 2013. Notwithstanding this positive development,the pace of job creation has remained weak and the unemployment rate rose to 11.7 percent in 2015, up from 10.6 percent in 2014. The fiscal balance of the central government also deteriorated, mostly due to low oil prices, from a deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2015. Similarly, the current account surplus is estimated to have shrank from 3.8 percent of GDP in 2014 to 0.6 percent of GDP in 2015 due to falling oil receipts.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-29) World Bank
    Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks to hit commodity markets extend a so far tumultuous decade, marked by the highest level of commodity price volatility in at least half a century. Between 2020 and 2024, commodity price swings were frequent and sharp, with knock-on consequences for economic activity and inflation. In the next two years, commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth—driven by worsening trade relations or a prolonged tightening of financial conditions—could further depress commodity demand, especially for industrial products. In addition, if OPEC+ fully unwinds its voluntary supply cuts, oil production will far exceed projected consumption. There are also important upside risks to commodity prices—for instance, if geopolitical tensions worsen, threatening oil and gas supplies, or if extreme weather events lead to agricultural and energy price spikes.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-15) World Bank
    The Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024 is the latest edition of the series formerly known as Poverty and Shared Prosperity. The report emphasizes that reducing poverty and increasing shared prosperity must be achieved in ways that do not come at unacceptably high costs to the environment. The current “polycrisis”—where the multiple crises of slow economic growth, increased fragility, climate risks, and heightened uncertainty have come together at the same time—makes national development strategies and international cooperation difficult. Offering the first post-Coronavirus (COVID)-19 pandemic assessment of global progress on this interlinked agenda, the report finds that global poverty reduction has resumed but at a pace slower than before the COVID-19 crisis. Nearly 700 million people worldwide live in extreme poverty with less than US$2.15 per person per day. Progress has essentially plateaued amid lower economic growth and the impacts of COVID-19 and other crises. Today, extreme poverty is concentrated mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa and fragile settings. At a higher standard more typical of upper-middle-income countries—US$6.85 per person per day—almost one-half of the world is living in poverty. The report also provides evidence that the number of countries that have high levels of income inequality has declined considerably during the past two decades, but the pace of improvements in shared prosperity has slowed, and that inequality remains high in Latin America and the Caribbean and Sub-Saharan Africa. Worldwide, people’s incomes today would need to increase fivefold on average to reach a minimum prosperity threshold of US$25 per person per day. Where there has been progress in poverty reduction and shared prosperity, there is evidence of an increasing ability of countries to manage natural hazards, but climate risks are significantly higher in the poorest settings. Nearly one in five people globally is at risk of experiencing welfare losses due to an extreme weather event from which they will struggle to recover. The interconnected issues of climate change and poverty call for a united and inclusive effort from the global community. Development cooperation stakeholders—from governments, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to communities and citizens acting locally in every corner of the globe—hold pivotal roles in promoting fair and sustainable transitions. By emphasizing strategies that yield multiple benefits and diligently monitoring and addressing trade-offs, we can strive toward a future that is prosperous, equitable, and resilient.