Publication: Thailand Economic Monitor, January 2020: Productivity for Prosperity
Loading...
Other Files
599 downloads
Date
2020-01-18
ISSN
Published
2020-01-18
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Thailand’s economic growth slowed to 2.4 percent in Q3 2019, driven by cyclical factors, notably weak external demand and heightened global uncertainty. The downturn has also exposed structural constraints, which is reflected in the sluggish growth of public and private investments. TheGovernment has responded swiftly to the growth slowdown, through accommodative monetary policies and countercyclical fiscal stimulus. Going forward, additional policies to enhance the effectiveness of the stimulus, with a focus on implementing major public investment projects andimproving the efficiency of public investment management could maximize the growth impact. In the long term, structural reforms such as enhancing competition in the domestic economy, increasing openness, and promoting an eco-system for firm innovation in order can boost productivity.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2020. Thailand Economic Monitor, January 2020: Productivity for Prosperity. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33196 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, January 2019(World Bank, Bangkok, 2019-01-17)The outlook for the global economy has darkened amid elevated trade tensions. International trade and investment are moderating, trade tensions remain elevated, and financing conditions are tightening. Global growth is projected to moderate from a downwardly revised 3 percent in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019 and 2.8 percent in 2020-21, as economic slack dissipates, monetary policy tightens in advanced economies, and global trade gradually slows (World Bank Global Economic Prospects, January 2019). Despite external shocks to trade and tourism, growth of the Thai economy is estimated to have accelerated to 4.1 percent in 2018. The economy proved to be resilient in the face of strong global headwinds due to strengthening domestic demand stemming from an upswing in private consumption and private investment. Domestic consumption expanded by 5 percent in 2018Q3, posting the highest growth rate in 22 quarters in a low-inflation environment and record-low unemployment. In addition, private investment grew by 3.9 percent in the third quarter supported by increased spending on construction, machinery and equipment. Strong domestic demand offset partially adverse global factors—the China-US trade dispute—as well as domestic and idiosyncratic factors—such as the Phuket boat tragedy and the high-base effect of gold exports. The Thai economy also owed its resiliency to strong and stable macroeconomic fundamentals.Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, June 2020(World Bank, Bangkok, 2020-06)The COVID-19 (coronavirus) shock hit Thailand in early 2020 adding to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Economic growth slowed from 4.2 percent in 2018 to 2.4 percent in 2019, with particularly weak performance in Q4 2019. The key drivers of slowing growth were weaker demand for exports reflecting the impact of US-China trade tensions, slowing public investments driven by delay in the passage of the FY 2020 budget, and a drought, impacting agricultural production. The COVID shock hit Thailand in early 2020 and has already had a significant economic impact, with a sharp growth contraction of 1.8 percent y-o-y and 2.2 percent q-o-q in Q1 2020. The Thai economy is projected to contract sharply in 2020, driven by a sharp deterioration in global and domestic demand. In the baseline, the economy is projected to contract by 5.0 percent in 2020, which is among the sharpest projected declines in the region. This is driven by a sharp decline in exports, particularly from tourism receipts and weakening global trade, and a slowdown in domestic demand reflecting the impact of mobility restrictions and mandated closures of businesses. The forecast is subject to future revisions, particularly on the downside, given heightened uncertainty surrounding the outbreak trajectory, globally and domestically.Publication Thailand Economic Monitor, April 2011(World Bank, Bangkok, 2011-04)The pace of economic activity is gradually returning to pre-crisis levels. After a roller-coaster of sharp drops, vigorous rebounds and mild contractions, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up 4.8 percent in the last quarter of 2010 on a seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) basis, closer to pre-crisis, normal levels. For 2010 as a whole, GDP expanded by 7.8 percent from 2009. Growth was broad-based, with significant contributions from external and domestic demands. Thailand's economy is one of the most energy intensive in the region because of the large (and growing) share of energy-intensive manufacturing in the economy and high proportion of cargo transported by trucks. Thailand can reduce its vulnerability to oil price shocks by raising fuel standards, improving tax incentives for conservation and relying more on rail for cargo transport.Publication Egypt Economic Monitor, November 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11)The COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic is causing the most severe global health and economic crisis in at least seven decades. In Egypt, the disruptions caused by the pandemic started in March 2020, and has since interrupted a period of macroeconomic stability, characterized by relatively high growth, improved fiscal accounts, and a comfortable level of foreign reserves. Yet, the pandemic also hit as longstanding challenges continued to persist, notably the government’s elevated debt-to-GDP ratio (despite its significant reduction in recent years), sluggish revenue-mobilization and the below-potential performance of non-oil merchandise exports and non-oil FDI. The fiscal, monetary and energy sector reforms implemented in recent years, along with the emergency measures undertaken by authorities in response to the COVID-19 crisis are so far helping Egypt weather the shock. Indeed, average real growth has remained positive during FY2019/20 and foreign reserves continue to be rather ample. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has inevitably caused job and income losses, posing additional strains on Egyptian households’ livelihoods, and is thus exacerbating the long-standing challenge of job-creation in Egypt, notably in the formal private sector. The in-focus chapter of this report is therefore dedicated to the topic of jobs and economic transformation. The analysis of this chapter shows that the economic transformation process has been slow-moving in Egypt, with employment shares increasing either in low value-added sectors, or in sectors that have experienced a decline in productivity (value-added per worker). Hence, the Egyptian economy has not been able to generate high-earning jobs, at scale. Going forward, for businesses to expand and create sufficient and high-quality employment opportunities, a three-pronged approach will be necessary: (i) Sustaining macroeconomic stability and overall policy predictability whilst incentivizing domestic savings to finance investments. (ii) Getting the enabling environment right to create attractive opportunities for domestic and foreign investments. (iii) Upgrading human capital and firm capabilities to fast-track the economic transformation process in Egypt and to strengthen the country’s resilience against such severe shocks.Publication Mauritius - Enhancing and Sustaining Competitiveness : Policy Notes on Trade and Labor(World Bank, 2010-12-03)Mauritius is a well known successful development story. The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita rose from 38 percent below the world average in 1981 to 16 percent above the average by 2008. Such a performance is not the fruit of luck or use of natural advantages as it was accomplished through man-made efforts and policy actions. The combination of (i) active industrialization policies together with opportunistic use of preferential trade access; and (ii) participatory institutions that assured voice and rent redistribution across the society ensured labor intensive growth and the emergence of a virtuous cycle in development. Mauritius knew what needed to be done. A National Long-Term Perspective Study (NLTPS), also known as Vision 2020, started in 1990 and was completed in 1997. The goal of opening up and diversifying the economy by moving towards high value-added, skill and knowledge intensive service sectors was already well articulated in the study - with explicit reference to the potential of 'computer services' which today is embedded in the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) sector. The global crisis in 2008 was a threatening reminder of vulnerabilities. Mauritius is structurally vulnerable to external shocks. With a small domestic market unable to promote or sustain production growth by itself and a high dependence on raw materials, food and energy imports, the country is necessarily tied to developments in the world economy. An overarching challenge for Mauritius to achieve the envisaged transformation towards a higher value added economy and sustain economic growth is to improve its productivity performance. This report focuses on two key fundamental instruments for that: (i) trade policy and (ii) labor policy.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.