Publication: Iran Economic Monitor, March 2016: Seizing the Opportunity
Loading...
Published
2016-03
ISSN
Date
2016-06-03
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Following the partial lifting of nuclear-related sanctions in November 2013 under the interim Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), Iran's economy rebounded in 20141 and is estimated to have expanded by 0.5 percent in 2015. A less accommodative monetary policy stance reduced inflationary pressures, with the Consumer Price Index falling to 8.9 percent in February 2016, from a peak of 45.1 percent in June 2013. Notwithstanding this positive development,the pace of job creation has remained weak and the unemployment rate rose to 11.7 percent in 2015, up from 10.6 percent in 2014. The fiscal balance of the central government also deteriorated, mostly due to low oil prices, from a deficit of 1.2 percent of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2.7 percent of GDP in 2015. Similarly, the current account surplus is estimated to have shrank from 3.8 percent of GDP in 2014 to 0.6 percent of GDP in 2015 due to falling oil receipts.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2016. Iran Economic Monitor, March 2016: Seizing the Opportunity. Iran Economic Monitor. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24409 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011(Washington, DC, 2011-03)Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-03)Effective January 1, 2015, Indonesia’s new government took the decisive step of implementing a new fuel pricing system, dramatically reducing gasoline and diesel subsidy costs. This paved the way for the government’s first budget, passed in February, to shift spending towards development priorities, especially infrastructure, the allocation for which is double the 2014 outturn. Successful implementation of the bold vision of the budget, however, will require overcoming administrative constraints to spending and dramatically lifting revenue collection performance. Achieving this, and having the benefits flow through into faster economic growth and poverty reduction, is likely to take time, especially with the pace of sustainable economic growth having slowed, due partly to lower commodity prices. Beyond the fiscal sector, reforms taken in the first months of the government’s term in key areas such as investment licensing also face complex challenges to make operational. The government has signaled its strong reform intentions, and raised expectations. Early progress will now need to be consolidated by effectively implementing major reforms and the budget posture, against a still-challenging global economic backdrop for Indonesia.Publication Moderating Risks, Bolstering Growth(Washington, DC, 2012-04)Half a year ago, Russia's economic prospects looked uncertain. The global economy was losing momentum, the expansion in the euro area was grinding to a halt and commodity prices were beginning to fall. Yet, while output growth is slowing this year in line with weaker growth in Europe and elsewhere, Russia's latest economy performance has been solid, though aided by favorable oil prices. The economy returned to the pre-crisis peak towards the end of last year, supported by strong consumption, as growth held steady at the same rate as in 2010. In 2011, measured in current dollars, Russia's economy was the ninth biggest in the world, compared to the eleventh biggest in 2007. This year, Russia's output might exceed US$2 trillion. Equalizing for prices difference with purchasing power parity, Russia's economy is already the sixth biggest today. The current account looks strong thanks to a large surplus in the trade balance, and the Central Bank of Russia added again in 2011 to its stock of foreign reserves. Employment returned to pre-crisis levels even earlier than output, and wages grew at a solid pace. Inflation reached its lowest level in two decades. Inequality declined and consumption levels of low-income households improved. The fiscal balance returned to a surplus. And while average public debt levels in advanced economies exceeded 100 percent of growth domestic product (GDP) in 2011, Russia's public debt was no more than 10 percent of GDP. Economic policies can help to shore up Russia's resilience in a volatile economic environment, diversify its economy, and strengthen its growth potential. First, fiscal policy should be used to rebuild fiscal buffers while oil prices are high. This will not only help to prepare for the next crisis, but also make sure that fiscal policy does not become procyclical as the output gap closes. Furthermore, monetary policy should continue to focus on low inflation, and financial policies on strengthening oversight. Finally, removing structural barriers to growth can help to bolster investment and productivity. Improving the business environment will go a long way to make the most of the economic benefits of Russia's World Trade Organization accession in summer 2012.Publication Comparing Constraints to Economic Stabilization in Macedonia and Slovakia : Macro Estimates with Micro Narratives(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-08)This paper re-emphasizes the link from structural policies to enhanced macroeconomic stabilization using a small structural model estimated on quarterly data for Macedonia and Slovakia over 1995-2007. The success of macroeconomic stabilization, typically in the hands of monetary policy, is not only determined by a suitable choice of the nominal anchor, which shapes the reaction function of monetary policy, but also the constraints within which the monetary policy strives to achieve its objectives. The key attributes of the constraints to macroeconomic stabilization are economic rigidities and structural shocks. By benchmarking the estimated economic rigidities and structural shocks faced by Macedonia to those faced by Slovakia, the authors find that Macedonia has relatively weaker transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, higher output rigidity, and a lower exchange rate pass-through, and faces larger external shocks. For Macedonia, these relatively higher constraints on monetary policy together with the chosen exchange rate anchor result in greater output and inflation volatility relative to Slovakia. Hence, it appears that small, open economies with stronger economic rigidities should apply monetary policy regimes that allow for more flexible adjustments in external relative prices to enhance their macroeconomic stability.Publication Indonesia Economic Quarterly, March 2014 : Investment in Flux(Washington, DC, 2014-03)Indonesia's economy continues to adjust to weaker terms of trade and tighter external financing conditions, with the composition of growth tilting more towards net exports, and economic growth slowing moderately. While this shift is positive for macroeconomic stability, it has to date been based primarily on tighter monetary policy and the depreciation of the Rupiah in 2013, the effects of which are continuing to play out. To further reduce Indonesia's vulnerability to external shocks, to minimize the risks of a more marked cyclical slowdown in growth, and to convert the near-term macro adjustment into strong, sustained growth over the longer term, further progress on long-standing policy priorities is warranted. Progress in three key areas can support both near-term macro stability and Indonesia's long-term economic prospects. First, there is a need to support domestic and foreign investor confidence. Recent policy and regulatory developments, including the partial ban on mineral exports, have increased uncertainty, may weigh on investment across the economy, and compound the usual difficulty of predicting policy ahead of elections. Given rising fiscal pressures from slower revenue growth and higher fuel subsidy costs, the second priority is to broaden the revenue base and improve the quality of spending, notably by reducing energy subsidy expenditure. These measures would also increase available fiscal space for more equitable, pro-growth spending. Third, credible progress is needed on addressing structural impediments to stronger and more inclusive growth, namely infrastructure and worker skills gaps, and factor and product market constraints. The policy environment is naturally constrained ahead of legislative elections in April and the presidential election in July. However, in light of ongoing economic risks and Indonesia's ambitious development agenda, laying the groundwork for future reforms, minimizing policy uncertainty, and making continued reform progress in some areas, should remain a priority.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.