Publication: Child mortality after the Ebola virus disease outbreak across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone
Loading...
Files in English
119 downloads
Date
2022-09-01
ISSN
Published
2022-09-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Ebola virus disease outbreak in 2014-2016 had a substantial impact on population health in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. This study aimed to assess whether the impact continued after the outbreak ended regarding child mortality. Cross-sectional logistic regressions were run using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys in the three countries. The average child mortality rate was significantly lower for children born after the outbreak than for those born before. However, the association of the child mortality rate with an increase in the number of Ebola cases per 100,000 people was significantly stronger for children born after the outbreak ended. Also, the change in the utilization of maternal health services after the outbreak varied across health services. Restoring disrupted child health services to pre-Ebola levels may be more difficult in areas that suffered a higher number of Ebola cases. The recovery of maternal health services after the outbreak might be affected by factors such as the resilience of health systems at the subnational level. This study suggests that strengthening the health system is crucial to fully recover from the Ebola outbreak and cope with future epidemics.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Eun Kim, Young. 2022. Child mortality after the Ebola virus disease outbreak across Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37995 License: CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic : Short and Medium Term Estimates for Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone(Washington, DC, 2014-09-17)The 2014 outbreak of the Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa has taken a horrible human toll. Although the outbreak originated in rural Guinea, it has hit hardest in Liberia and Sierra Leone, in part because it has reached urban areas in these two countries, a factor that distinguishes this outbreak from previous episodes elsewhere. As of September 10, 2014, there had been 2,281 recorded deaths out of 4,614 suspected or confirmed cases of Ebola. Experts fear that the true numbers may be two to four times larger, due to underreporting. Misery and suffering have been intense, especially in Liberia where doctors have had to turning patients away for lack of space in Ebola treatment centers. Inevitably, before the outbreak is contained the human impacts will increase considerably over these numbers. Epidemiological estimates are acknowledged as highly uncertain and are not the subject of this note. What is certain is that limiting the human cost will require significant financial resources and a concerted partnership between international partners and the affected countries. Particularly in Liberia and Sierra Leone, government capacity is already overrun and the epidemic is impacting macroeconomic activity and budgetary resources. This note informs the response to the epidemic by estimating these macroeconomic and fiscal effects. Any such exercise is necessarily highly imprecise due to limited data and many uncertain factors, but it is still necessary in order to plan the economic assistance that must accompany the immediate humanitarian response. The goal is to help affected countries to recover and return to the robust economic growth they had experienced until the offset of this crisis.Publication On SARS Type Economic Effects During Infectious Disease Outbreaks(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-01)Infectious disease outbreaks can exact a high human and economic cost through illness and death. But, as with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in East Asia in 2003, or the plague outbreak in Surat, India, in 1994, they can also create severe economic disruptions even when there is, ultimately, relatively little illness or death. Such disruptions are commonly the result of uncoordinated and panicky efforts by individuals to avoid becoming infected, of preventive activity. This paper places these "SARS type" effects in the context of research on economic epidemiology, in which behavioral responses to disease risk have both economic and epidemiological consequences. The paper looks in particular at how people form subjective probability judgments about disease risk. Public opinion surveys during the SARS outbreak provide suggestive evidence that people did indeed at times hold excessively high perceptions of the risk of becoming infected, or, if infected, of dying from the disease. The paper discusses research in behavioral economics and the theory of information cascades that may shed light on the origin of such biases. The authors consider whether public information strategies can help reduce unwarranted panic. A preliminary question is why governments often seem to have strong incentives to conceal information about infectious disease outbreaks. The paper reviews recent game-theoretic analysis that clarifies government incentives. An important finding is that government incentives to conceal decline the more numerous are non-official sources of information about a possible disease outbreak. The findings suggest that honesty may indeed be the best public policy under modern conditions of easy mass global communications.Publication Update on the Economic Impact of the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic on Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04-15)A year after the onset of Ebola, the estimated GDP losses for the three countries through 2015 total US$2.2 billion (US$240 million for Liberia, US$535 million for Guinea and US$1.4 billion for Sierra Leone). This is the result of the severe impact of the epidemic which has been exacerbated by the large decline in the world price of iron ore and severe corporate governance issues in mining in Sierra Leone. Important differences among the three countries are emerging. Liberia is gradually returning to normalcy, Guineas economy is stagnating, and Sierra Leone is suffering a severe recession. This update presents the World Banks most recent analysis of the economic and fiscal effects of the Ebola epidemic on the three countries. In relation to our January 2015 report it contains: 1) an updated status for the economies of Liberia, Guinea, and Sierra Leone; and 2) a brief description of these countries Economic Recovery Plans with indicative estimates of their potential impact on growth. As of April 2015, the Ebola epidemic has been largely contained but the negative effects on the economies of Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone loom large amidst continued uncertainty about the timing of complete eradication. The crisis continues to adversely affect these economies, so pace of recovery in these countries will depend heavily on adequate financing and effective implementation of the recovery plans. Ultimately, Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone will need the strong support from the development community over the next years to both make up for the losses incurred during the Ebola crisis and make these economies less vulnerable for the future.Publication Update on the Economic Impact of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic on Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea(Washington, DC, 2014-12-02)The Ebola epidemic continues to cripple the economies of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea. The crisis is resulting in flat or negative income growth and creating large fiscal needs in all three countries, as they work to eradicate the virus. This update presents the World Bank s most recent analysis of the economic effects of the Ebola epidemic on the three countries. All three had been growing rapidly in recent years, and into the first half of 2014. But GDP growth estimates for 2014 have been revised sharply downward since pre-crisis estimates. Projected 2014 growth in Liberia is now 2.2 percent (versus 5.9 percent before the crisis and 2.5 percent in October). Projected 2014 growth in Sierra Leone is now 4.0 percent (versus 11.3 percent before the crisis and 8.0 percent in October). Projected 2014 growth in Guinea is now 0.5 percent (versus 4.5 percent before the crisis and 2.4 percent in October). The World Bank s October report on the economic impact of Ebola (report no. 91219 released at the 2014 Annual Meetings of the IMF and the World Bank) found that if the epidemic continues in the three worst-affected countries and spreads to neighboring countries, the two-year regional financial impact could range from a "low Ebola" estimate of $3.8 billion to a "high Ebola" estimate of $32.6 billion. These scale estimates of potential impact remain valid: the epidemic is not yet under control. Containment, combined with a full-fledged financial recovery effort to restart business activity and bring back investors, are now both therefore urgently needed for the region to improve on the downbeat forecasts in this update.Publication Reducing Climate-Sensitive Disease Risks(Washington, DC, 2014-04)Disease risks to humans, animals, and plants are determined by interconnected environmental variables that affect incidence, transmission, and outbreak. Climate change affects many of the environmental variables that lead to disease. Regardless of the species involved, the impacts can ultimately affect the health, livelihood, and economic security of humans. The objective of this World Bank economic and sector work is to build on scientific and operational knowledge of early action tools to help practitioners reduce the risks of key climate-sensitive infectious diseases by strengthening risk management systems for disease outbreaks. The report includes an assessment of known interventions such as the establishment of surveillance systems, the development of region and nation-specific disease outlooks, the creation of climate-sensitive disease risk maps, and the construction and implementation of early warning advisory systems. This research highlights the need for better understanding of the evolving interactions between the environment and emerging and reemerging disease pathogens. It also points to the inseparable interactions between animal health and human health, which climate change appears to be reinforcing and even diversifying. The assessment looks at investments that can lead to the development of these tools, working toward reducing global climate-sensitive disease risk. Because of the breadth of species affected by climate-sensitive disease, it has been helpful to select a model through which the specific impact of climate change and disease can be traced. In this instance, livestock has been chosen, given its significant global presence, economic importance, and susceptibility to disease outbreak. The livestock sector plays a vital role in the economies of many developing countries. Globally it accounts for 40 percent of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP).
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication What a Waste : A Global Review of Solid Waste Management(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-03)Solid waste management is the one thing just about every city government provides for its residents. While service levels, environmental impacts and costs vary dramatically, solid waste management is arguably the most important municipal service and serves as a prerequisite for other municipal action. As the world hurtles toward its urban future, the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW), one of the most important by-products of an urban lifestyle, is growing even faster than the rate of urbanization. Ten years ago there were 2.9 billion urban residents who generated about 0.64 kg of MSW per person per day (0.68 billion tonnes per year). This report estimates that today these amounts have increased to about 3 billion residents generating 1.2 kg per person per day (1.3 billion tonnes per year). By 2025 this will likely increase to 4.3 billion urban residents generating about 1.42 kg/capita/day of municipal solid waste (2.2 billion tonnes per year).Publication Accessing Economic and Political Impacts of Hydrological Variability on Treaties : Case Studies on the Zambezi and Mekong Basins(2012-03-01)International river basins will likely face higher hydrologic variability due to climate change. Increased floods and droughts would have economic and political consequences. Riparians of transboundary basins governed by water treaties could experience non-compliance and inter-state tensions if flow falls below levels presumed in a treaty. Flow information is essential to cope with these challenges through water storage, allocation, and use. This paper demonstrates a simple yet robust method, which measures gauge station runoff with wetness values derived from satellite data (1988-2010), for expanding sub-basin stream flow information to the entire river basin where natural flow information is limited. It demonstrates the approach with flow level data that provide estimates of monthly runoff in near real time in two international river basins: Zambezi and Mekong. The paper includes an economic framework incorporating information on existing institutions to assess potential economic and political impacts and to inform policy on conflict and cooperation between riparians. The authors conclude that satellite data modeled with gauge station runoff reduce the uncertainty inherent in negotiating an international water agreement under increased hydrological variability, and thus can assist policy makers to devise more efficient institutional apparatus.Publication Education is Forbidden(Elsevier, 2019-11)This paper quantifies the impact of the Boko Haram conflict on various educational outcomes of individuals living in North-East Nigeria during the period 2009–2016. Using individual panel fixed-effects regressions and exploiting over-time and cross-village variation in conflict intensity, we show that conflict reduces school enrollment. The negative effect is larger for children who are no longer of mandatory school age. We do not find differential effects by gender, religion, or type of residential location. Additional results from a difference-in-differences estimation strategy indicate that conflict reduces the years of education completed.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication World Development Report 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-01)Middle-income countries are in a race against time. Many of them have done well since the 1990s to escape low-income levels and eradicate extreme poverty, leading to the perception that the last three decades have been great for development. But the ambition of the more than 100 economies with incomes per capita between US$1,100 and US$14,000 is to reach high-income status within the next generation. When assessed against this goal, their record is discouraging. Since the 1970s, income per capita in the median middle-income country has stagnated at less than a tenth of the US level. With aging populations, growing protectionism, and escalating pressures to speed up the energy transition, today’s middle-income economies face ever more daunting odds. To become advanced economies despite the growing headwinds, they will have to make miracles. Drawing on the development experience and advances in economic analysis since the 1950s, World Development Report 2024 identifies pathways for developing economies to avoid the “middle-income trap.” It points to the need for not one but two transitions for those at the middle-income level: the first from investment to infusion and the second from infusion to innovation. Governments in lower-middle-income countries must drop the habit of repeating the same investment-driven strategies and work instead to infuse modern technologies and successful business processes from around the world into their economies. This requires reshaping large swaths of those economies into globally competitive suppliers of goods and services. Upper-middle-income countries that have mastered infusion can accelerate the shift to innovation—not just borrowing ideas from the global frontiers of technology but also beginning to push the frontiers outward. This requires restructuring enterprise, work, and energy use once again, with an even greater emphasis on economic freedom, social mobility, and political contestability. Neither transition is automatic. The handful of economies that made speedy transitions from middle- to high-income status have encouraged enterprise by disciplining powerful incumbents, developed talent by rewarding merit, and capitalized on crises to alter policies and institutions that no longer suit the purposes they were once designed to serve. Today’s middle-income countries will have to do the same.