Publication: Modelling Migration Dynamics in Albania : A Hazard Function Approach
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Published
2009
ISSN
1468-3857
Date
2012-03-30
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Since 1990, migration flows from Albania have been massive, relative to the size of the country and its population, but they have also fluctuated over time. In the first section of the paper various descriptive trends are presented, mainly in graphical form, and discussed. The data come from the 2005 Albanian Living Standards Measurement Survey, and cover the period 1990-2004. The resulting observed trends reflect changing push and pull factors in Albania and the two main host countries, Greece and Italy. The paper presents a hazard approach to modelling Albanian emigration and return migration. This analysis highlights the relevance of networks in Albanian migration dynamics, both to promote emigration and to delay return.
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Publication Modeling Migration Dynamics in Albania : A Hazard Function Approach(2009-05-01)Since 1990 migration flows from Albania have been massive, relative to the size of the country and its population, but they have also fluctuated over time. This paper presents and discusses various descriptive trends, mainly in graphical form. The data come from the Albanian Living Standards Measurement Survey, 2005 round, and cover the period 1990-2004. The resulting observed trends reflect changing push and pull factors in Albania and the two main host countries, Greece and Italy. The paper also presents a hazard approach to modeling Albanian emigration and return migration. This analysis highlights, among other things, the relevance of networks in Albanian migration dynamics, both to promote emigration and to delay return.Publication Gender and Migration from Albania(2010)This article examines the dynamics and causes of the shift in the gender composition of migration, and more particularly, in women's access to migration opportunities and decision-making. Our analysis focuses on Albania, a natural laboratory for studying international migration where outmigration was essentially nonexistent from the end of World War II to the end of the 1980s. Interest in the Albanian case is heightened because of the complex layers of inequality existing at the time when migration began: relatively low levels of inequality within the labor market and educational system's product of the Communist era--while household relations remained heavily steeped in tradition and patriarchy. We use micro-level data from the Albania 2005 Living Standards Measurement Study, including migration histories for family members since migration began. Based on discrete-time hazard models, the analysis shows a dramatic increase in male migration and a gradual and uneven expansion of the female proportion of this international migration. Female migration, which is shown to be strongly associated with education, wealth, and social capital, appears responsive to economic incentives and constraints. Using information on the dependency of female migration to the household demographic structure as well as the sensitivity of female migration to household-level shocks, we show how household-level constraints and incentives affect male and female migration differently. Throughout this period, however, women's migration behavior appears more directly aligned with household-level factors, and there is little evidence to suggest that increased female migration signals rising behavioral independence among Albanian women.Publication Migration and Labour Choice in Albania(2008-10)Very little analysis exists of the income-generating strategies of Albanian households, and how this relates to income dynamics, people's mobility and poverty. Results show that agricultural, migration and human capital assets have a differential impact across livelihood choices, and that this impact varies by gender and age. Two areas of policy concern derive from this analysis. First, migration is clearly crucial for the economic future of Albania, in terms of fuelling economic development in rural areas, and in reducing excess labour supply and poverty. The suggestion of a potential disincentive effect on labour effort and participation is, however, worrying, as it would have implications in terms of missed opportunities for development. Second, agriculture appears to be more of a survival strategy than part of a poverty exit strategy.Publication Agency, Education and Networks : Gender and International Migration from Albania(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-02)This paper examines the causes and dynamics of the shift in the gender composition of migration, and more particularly, in the access of women to migration opportunities and decision making. The context of the analysis is Albania, a natural laboratory for studying migration developments given that out-migration was practically eliminated from the end of World War II to the end of the 1980s. The authors use micro-level data from the Albania 2005 Living Standards Measurement Study including migration histories for family members since migration began. Based on discrete-time hazard models, the analysis shows an impressive expansion of female participation in international migration. Female migration, which is shown to be strongly associated with education, wealth, and social capital, appears responsive to economic incentives and constraints. Yet, using unique data on the dependency of female migration to the household demographic structure as well as the sensitivity of female migration to household-level shocks, the authors show that it is the households themselves that are the decision-making agents behind this economic calculus and there is little to suggest that increased female migration signals the emergence of female agency.Publication A Control Function Approach to Estimating Dynamic Probit Models with Endogenous Regressors, with an Application to the Study of Poverty Persistence in China(2010-08-01)This paper proposes a parametric approach to estimating a dynamic binary response panel data model that allows for endogenous contemporaneous regressors. This approach is of particular value for settings in which one wants to estimate the effects of an endogenous treatment on a binary outcome. The model is next used to examine the impact of rural-urban migration on the likelihood that households in rural China fall below the poverty line. In this application, it is shown that migration is important for reducing the likelihood that poor households remain in poverty and that non-poor households fall into poverty. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that failure to control for unobserved heterogeneity would lead the researcher to underestimate the impact of migrant labor markets on reducing the probability of falling into poverty.
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