Publication: Modeling Migration Dynamics in Albania : A Hazard Function Approach
Loading...
Published
2009-05-01
ISSN
Date
2012-03-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Since 1990 migration flows from Albania have been massive, relative to the size of the country and its population, but they have also fluctuated over time. This paper presents and discusses various descriptive trends, mainly in graphical form. The data come from the Albanian Living Standards Measurement Survey, 2005 round, and cover the period 1990-2004. The resulting observed trends reflect changing push and pull factors in Albania and the two main host countries, Greece and Italy. The paper also presents a hazard approach to modeling Albanian emigration and return migration. This analysis highlights, among other things, the relevance of networks in Albanian migration dynamics, both to promote emigration and to delay return.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Azzarri, Carlo; Carletto, Calogero. 2009. Modeling Migration Dynamics in Albania : A Hazard Function Approach. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4945. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/4138 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05)Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Informing Migration Policies : A Data Primer(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-11)Researchers in many fields, such as demography, economics, and sociology, have established various data collection methodologies and principles to answer a range of academic and policy questions on migration. Although the progress has been impressive, some basic challenges remain. This paper addresses some basic, yet fundamental, questions on identification of international migrants and how their various demographic, personal, and human capital characteristics are captured via different data sources. The critical issues are the construction of proper sampling frames in censuses, registers, and surveys and the design of questionnaires in household, labor market, and other relevant surveys. The paper discusses how these data sources can be used to answer policy questions in areas such as labor markets, education, or poverty. The focus is on how some of the existing shortcomings in availability, quality, and relevance of migration data can be overcome via improvements in data collection methods.Publication The Impact of Remittances on Growth Evidence from North African Countries(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2009-09-30)Remittances constitute financial flows that affect the receiving country's economy and its development through diverse channels, including income, consumption, investment, government policies, potential parental absence, and removal of potential entrepreneurial individuals from the community. In view of the economic significance of remittance flows to North African economies, this paper utilizes an econometric model aimed at empirically evaluating the growth impact of remittances on four receiving economies during the period from 1980 to 2007. The model focuses on assessing the role of financial development in determining the growth impact of remittance flows to the region. The paper is organized in four main sections. Section two looks at the scope of migration movements in the four North African countries and the importance of remittance flows to the region. It shows the historical, current and future importance of remittance flows to North African economies. The third section elaborates upon what is known about the economic impacts of remittances at large. It details the major potential macroeconomic impacts of remittances through a literature review on growth and remittances. It also looks at the various channels through which remittances can impact growth. Section four presents an econometric model evaluating the growth impact of remittances with and without the financial sector variable and the results. The fifth section summarizes the main results and concludes.Publication The Remitting Patterns of African Migrants in the OECD(2010-04-01)Recorded remittances to Africa have grown dramatically over the past decade. Yet data limitations still mean relatively little is known about which migrants remit, how much they remit, and how their remitting behavior varies with gender, education, income levels, and duration abroad. This paper constructs the most comprehensive remittance database on immigrants in the OECD currently available, containing microdata on more than 12,000 African immigrants. Using this microdata the authors establish several basic facts about the remitting patterns of Africans, and then explore how key characteristics of policy interest relate to remittance behavior. Africans are found to remit twice as much on average as migrants from other developing countries, and those from poorer African countries are more likely to remit than those from richer African countries. Male migrants remit more than female migrants, particularly among those with a spouse remaining in the home country; more-educated migrants remit more than less educated migrants; and although the amount remitted increases with income earned, the gradient is quite flat over a large range of income. Finally, there is little evidence that the amount remitted decays with time spent abroad, with reductions in the likelihood of remitting offset by increases in the amount remitted conditional on remitting.Publication International Migration, Economic Development and Policy(Washington, DC: World Bank and Palgrave Macmillan, 2007)This volume reflects the expansion of the World Bank Research Program on International Migration and Development into new substantive and geographic areas. It presents a new global migration database and includes studies of the determinants and impact of return and circular migration, the impact of the flow of ideas on fertility, host country policies and their impact on immigrants, and the impact of international migration and remittances on poverty and other development indicators. The studies cover countries from Latin America, North Africa, South Asia, the South Pacific, and Western Europe, and show that the impact of migration on education and health tends to benefit girls more than boys, that its impact on labor force participation tends to be stronger for women than men, that return migrants tend to do better than non-migrants, and that fertility has tended to decline in countries whose migration has been to the West and has failed to do so in countries whose migration has been to the Gulf. The purpose of the case studies is to illustrate and clarify many theoretical mechanisms and to advance understanding of the impact of different migration policies, given that introducing policy variables in econometric regressions is generally difficult. Each study in this volume aims to answer a variety of development- and policy-related questions using the most appropriate of these three methodologies. These empirical studies and analyses include exploration of some novel hypotheses; they are also new in terms of the topics selected and the regions/ countries examinedPublication Distortions in the International Migrant Labor Market : Evidence from Filipino Migration and Wage Responses to Destination Country Economic Shocks(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-04)The authors use an original panel dataset of migrant departures from the Philippines to identify the responsiveness of migrant numbers and wages to gross domestic product shocks in destination countries. They find a large significant elasticity of migrant numbers to gross domestic product shocks at destination, but no significant wage response. This is consistent with binding minimum wages for migrant labor. This result implies that labor market imperfections that make international migration attractive also make migrant flows more sensitive to global business cycles. Difference-in-differences analysis of a minimum wage change for maids confirms that minimum wages bind and demand is price sensitive without these distortions.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Interest Rate Caps(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04)Ceilings on lending rates remain a widely used policy tool that is intended to lower the overall cost of credit or protect consumers from exorbitant rates. Interest rate caps come in many forms and scopes and, according to their rationale, ceilings can affect a small segment or the overall market. Over the past years, many countries have introduced new or tightened existing restrictions, while only a few have removed or eased them. This paper takes stock of recent developments in interest rates caps globally and classifies them according to a novel taxonomy. The paper also presents six case studies of different types of interest rate caps. The case studies indicate that while some forms of interest rate caps can indeed reduce lending rates and help to limit predatory practices by formal lenders, interest rate caps often have substantial unintended side-effects. These side-effects include increases in non-interest fees and commissions, reduced price transparency, lower credit supply and loan approval rates for small and risky borrowers, lower number of institutions and reduced branch density, as well as adverse impacts on bank profitability. Given these potential negative consequences of interest rate caps, the paper discusses alternatives to reduce the cost of credit.Publication Reducing Investment Climate Constraints to Higher Growth : Lao People's Democratic Republic Private Sector and Investment Climate Assessment(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)The survey on Lao private sector and investment climate covered 303 firms in six sectors and seven provinces (Vientiane City, Oudomxay, Luang Prabang, Luangnamtha, Xayaboury, Savannakhet, and Champassack). The survey included 246 firms in manufacturing covering wood processing, construction materials, garments, textiles/handicraft, and food and beverage sectors and 57 firms in tourism covering hotels, tour operators, and travel agencies. With the exception of the garment and wood processing sectors, which traditionally have larger firms and more foreign investment, most firms in the sample were domestic small and medium enterprises (SMEs). The survey provided three types of information useful for the Investment Climate Assessment: perceptions of firms operating in Lao PDR regarding the relative importance of investment climate constraints to their businesses; quantitative data on firms' performance and productivity; and comparator country information from their ICAs, for benchmarking Lao PDR's investment climate against regional standards.Publication Global Report - Transformative Technologies in Transportation(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-18)Transport is quickly evolving, adapting, shaping, and being shaped by global megatrends, promoting energy efficiency and environmental quality. The transportation system enables access to essential services and job opportunities and facilitates the production, trade, and distribution of goods. The transportation infrastructure and services that utilize it are vital to economic prosperity and social wellbeing, and sustainable and smart mobility is an essential ingredient to achieve poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Historically, rapid expansion of the transportation network has been associated with economic growth and social development; however, it is now widely recognized that infrastructure expansion alone is not sufficient to address contemporary transportation and mobility problems. Equally important is the need to utilize the existing system more efficiently and enable a wide array of mobility solutions and innovative approaches that meet increasingly diverse needs in varying environments. Given increasing levels of congestion, road crash, local air pollution, energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, it is imperative to find a smarter path for future development. To many policy makers and practitioners, technological innovations are the key enablers of such transformationPublication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Malaysia Economic Monitor, June 2020(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06-24)Malaysia's economy has been severely affected by the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic. In 2020, Malaysia's economy is projected to contract by 3.1 percent. In Q1 2020, growth slowed to just 0.7 percent with efforts to flatten the curve of the pandemic through a series of movement control orders and with deep uncertainty regarding growth prospects severely constraining economic activity. A pronounced output contraction of around 10 percent in Q2 2020 is envisioned, reflecting the significant impact of the economic disruptions resulting from the MCO imposed during the quarter. This is expected to be followed by a partial recovery in the second half of the year, as the outbreak eases and mobility restrictions are gradually lifted. This forecast assumes that the spread of pandemic is broadly contained at the global level and that the massive fiscal and monetary policy support measures implemented by governments around the world limit the depth of contraction to global economic activity. With all these factors, the near-term outlook for Malaysia's economy is unusually uncertain at present. The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in an unprecedented crisis that requires large-scale and unconventional policy responses by governments everywhere. With the crisis severely affecting private demand and causing supply shocks, the government is tasked with the responsibility of facilitating economic recovery in the near term. Malaysia's economy remains resilient and rests on strong fundamentals. Its diversified economic structure, sound financial system, effective public health response and proactive macroeconomic policy support suggest that Malaysia will be able to ride out the storm better than many other countries. In the near term, Malaysia's fiscal strategy should be re-prioritized to create additional policy space. This will require efforts to re-allocate expenditures towards priority areas, identify new sources of nontax revenue, as well as legislative amendments to temporarily increase available fiscal space.