Publication:
Impacts of Extremist Ideologies on Refugees' Integration: Evidence from Afghan Refugees in Tajikistan

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (17.73 MB)
126 downloads
English Text (260.43 KB)
6 downloads
Date
2023-11-28
ISSN
Published
2023-11-28
Author(s)
Rozo, Sandra V.
Urbina, María José
Editor(s)
Abstract
Abstract amended in January 2024: This paper examines the effect of exposure to extremist ideologies in the home country on the subsequent integration of refugees in host countries. For this purpose, it combines a rich census of Afghan refugees living in Tajikistan in 2023, following the Taliban’s takeover in Afghanistan, with uniquely scraped district-yearly data on the territories controlled by the Taliban, U.S. allies, and contested territories between the two factions between 2017 and 2021. The empirical strategy compares the integration outcomes of refugees who experienced varying exposure to extremism generated by the exogenous and sudden dramatic shift in Taliban’s territorial control in their province of birth between 2017 and 2021. Findings suggest that refugees who were born in provinces with increased Taliban territorial control between 2017 and 2021, despite having comparable pre-migration characteristics to refugees born elsewhere in Afghanistan, are less integrated into their Tajik host communities than the other refugees. These refugees also show lower educational levels and more mental health problems.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Bossavie, Laurent; Rozo, Sandra V.; Urbina, María José. 2023. Impacts of Extremist Ideologies on Refugees' Integration: Evidence from Afghan Refugees in Tajikistan. Policy Research Working Paper; 10612. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40649 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Disentangling the Key Economic Channels through Which Infrastructure Affects Jobs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) Vagliasindi, Maria; Gorgulu, Nisan
    This paper takes stock of the literature on infrastructure and jobs published since the early 2000s, using a conceptual framework to identify the key channels through which different types of infrastructure impact jobs. Where relevant, it highlights the different approaches and findings in the cases of energy, digital, and transport infrastructure. Overall, the literature review provides strong evidence of infrastructure’s positive impact on employment, particularly for women. In the case of electricity, this impact arises from freeing time that would otherwise be spent on household tasks. Similarly, digital infrastructure, particularly mobile phone coverage, has demonstrated positive labor market effects, often driven by private sector investments rather than large public expenditures, which are typically required for other large-scale infrastructure projects. The evidence on structural transformation is also positive, with some notable exceptions, such as studies that find no significant impact on structural transformation in rural India in the cases of electricity and roads. Even with better market connections, remote areas may continue to lack economic opportunities, due to the absence of agglomeration economies and complementary inputs such as human capital. Accordingly, reducing transport costs alone may not be sufficient to drive economic transformation in rural areas. The spatial dimension of transformation is particularly relevant for transport, both internationally—by enhancing trade integration—and within countries, where economic development tends to drive firms and jobs toward urban centers, benefitting from economies scale and network effects. Turning to organizational transformation, evidence on skill bias in developing countries is more mixed than in developed countries and may vary considerably by context. Further research, especially on the possible reasons explaining the differences between developed and developing economies, is needed.
  • Publication
    Economic Consequences of Trade and Global Value Chain Integration
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2025-04-04) Borin, Alessandro; Mancini, Michele; Taglioni, Daria
    This paper introduces a new approach to measuring Global Value Chains (GVC), crucial for informed policy-making. It features a tripartite classification (backward, forward, and two-sided) covering trade and production data. The findings indicate that traditional trade-based GVC metrics significantly underestimate global GVC activity, especially in sectors like services and upstream manufacturing, and overstate risks in early trade liberalization stages. Additionally, conventional backward-forward classifications over-estimate backward linkages. The paper further applies these measures empirically to assess how GVC participation mediates the impact of demand shocks on domestic output, highlighting both the exposure and stabilizing potential of GVC integration. These new measures are comprehensively available on the World Bank’s WITS Platform, providing a key resource for GVC analysis.
  • Publication
    Participation in Pension Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-24) Giles, John; Joubert, Clément; Tanaka, Tomoaki
    Low- and middle-income countries are aging rapidly but stagnation of growth in participation in pension programs, due to widespread informal employment, presents a major fiscal challenge. Some claim that improving the design of pension program rules can encourage more pension contributions, while others push for universal non-contributory pensions. This paper reviews the recent academic literature on the determinants of active participation in pension systems in high- informality settings. An emerging body of evidence shows that participation responds significantly to financial incentives as well as nonfinancial obstacles. At the same time, pensions are imperfect substitutes for other strategies to cover longevity risk, including support through the family, which will remain crucial for many older people in fiscally constrained environments. Therefore, policy makers should integrate the design of contributory pensions, social pensions, and policies that facilitate other forms of elderly support and consider how all three interact. To inform such efforts, these interactions must be more systematically investigated, and the empirical evidence must be expanded beyond a small number of middle-income countries.
  • Publication
    Capitalizing on Digital Transformation to Enhance the Effectiveness of Property Institutions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-14) Deininger, Klaus; Hilhorst, Thea; Zevenbergen, Jaap; Nkurunziza, Emmanuel
    Property registries have long been a pillar of state capacity and a basis for private market activity. While registry establishment and operation traditionally were costly and time consuming, digital technology makes low-cost registry operation and wide outreach easier. To guide developing countries aiming to establish such registries and measure progress, this paper develops indicators (in terms of digital coverage, interoperability, and property taxation for local service delivery and public land management) of effective digital registry service provision. Data from 85 countries highlight vast differences and provide suggestions for strategic reforms as well as a basis for measuring progress over time. Expanding geographical coverage and collecting these indicators on a regular basis could provide guidance to improve the way in which, by protecting property, the state creates the basis for widely shared prosperity and a livable environment.
  • Publication
    Bridging the Gap
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-21) Kruse, Hagen; Ohnsorge, Franziska; Tourek, Gabriel; Xie, Zoe Leiyu
    This paper examines tax revenue shortfalls in South Asian countries. On average during 2019–23, South Asian revenues totaled 18 percent of GDP—well below the average 24 percent among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Econometric estimates from stochastic frontier analysis, which control for tax rates and the size of potential tax bases, suggest that tax revenues in the region are 1 to 7 percentage points of GDP below potential, with shortfalls in five of the region’s eight countries larger than in the average EMDE. Even after controlling for country characteristics, such as widespread informal economic activity outside the tax net and large agriculture sectors, sizable tax gaps remain, suggesting the need for improved tax policy and administration. The paper discusses and provides evidence from international experience with reforms to raise government revenues.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Refugees and Humanitarian Aid
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-08-29) Etang Ndip, Alvin; Rozo,, Sandra V.; Urbina, María José; Wieser, Christina
    This paper examines the impact of refugee camp hosting on local communities, specifically the Rohingya crisis in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh. It uses remote sensing measurements and panel data to compare areas and individuals at varying distances before and after the Rohingya arrived. The results highlight the complex dynamics of areas that host displaced populations. The paper finds that when the proximity of a grid to the refugee camps increases by 30 km (18.6 miles), night light density rises by 1.7 percent and deforestation expands by 0.02 percent. Land use results align with these findings, showing a decline in dense-open forest and an increase in land covered by grass and crops. The analysis of individual-level data suggests that the Rohingya’s presence manifests in higher job formality, better access to aid, and more food consumption—all largely attributable to the activities of humanitarian organizations. However, their presence is also associated with heightened safety concerns and a higher prevalence of viral diseases such as diarrhea, fever, and cough.
  • Publication
    Electoral Effects of Integrating Forced Migrants
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-03) Rozo, Sandra V.; Quintana, Alejandra; Urbina, María José
    How does easing the economic integration of forced migrants affect native voting behaviors in the Global South? This study assesses how a regularization program, which facilitated the temporal economic integration of half a million Venezuelan forced migrants, affected the electoral choices of Colombian voters. This is done by comparing the election results in municipalities with higher and lower take-up rates for the program, before and after its implementation. The findings show negligible impacts of the program on native voting behavior. A survey experiment was also conducted to investigate the lack of voter’s response. Even after receiving information about the program, Colombian voters showed no changes in voting intentions or prosocial views toward migrants. Hence, voter’s indifference did not stem from a lack of awareness about the program. Instead, theoretical and qualitative evidence suggests that it may be potentially explained by (1) the absence of negative economic effects of the program, (2) the low media and political salience of the program, (3) the cultural proximity between Colombia and Venezuela, and (4) the stabilization of Venezuelan inflows into Colombia after 2018.
  • Publication
    Least Protected, Most Affected
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-02) Urbina, Maria José; Rozo, Sandra V.; Moya, Andrés; Ibáñez, Ana María
    How can regularization programs improve forced migrants’ resilience to shocks This paper leverages panel data collected during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess whether Venezuelan forced migrants who were eligible for a regularization program in Colombia were more resilient and less affected by the pandemic than similar but non-eligible forced migrants. The results indicate that access to the program promoted better health access for eligible migrants, facilitating adherence to prevention guidelines and increasing detection rates. Additionally, eligible migrants had better housing and labor conditions, relative to non-eligible migrants.
  • Publication
    Life Out of the Shadows
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-02) Ibáñez, Ana María; Moya, Andrés; Ortega, María Adelaida; Rozo, Sandra V.; Urbina, Maria José
    This paper examines the well-being effects of a regularization program offered to half a million Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. It collects data on more than two thousand such migrants and used it to compare the well-being of those who arrived in Colombia before and after the date that defined program eligibility. This date was announced ex post and was generally unknown to the public, and thus enables us to credibly evaluate the program’s impact. The authors find that program beneficiaries experienced large improvements in well-being, including consumption per capita (a gain of 48 percent) and monthly labor income (an increase of 22 percent). These effects stemmed from greater registration rates in the system that assesses vulnerability and awards public transfers (22 pp) and from financial services (44.4 pp).
  • Publication
    The Fine Line between Nudging and Nagging
    (World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2023-10-17) Moya, Andrés; Rozo, Sandra V.; Urbina, María José
    This study assesses if nudges in the form of informational videos sent via WhatsApp are effective in boosting take-up rates among vulnerable populations, specifically in the context of a regularization program for Venezuelan forced migrants in Colombia. The study randomly assigned 1,375 eligible migrants to receive one of three informational videos or be in a control group. The videos aimed at solving issues related to awareness, trust, and bottlenecks in the step-by-step registration. The main results indicate that program take-up rates for individuals who received any video were eight percentage points lower compared to the control group. The effects are mostly driven by the treated individuals who received the links but did not watch the videos, who are older, busier, and have less internet access relative to other treated individuals. Additionally, the study evaluates the effectiveness of iterative WhatsApp surveys in collecting data from hard-to-reach populations. It finds that while iterative WhatsApp surveys had low retention rates, iterative contacts helped to reduce attrition. Furthermore, switching behaviors from nonresponse to response were common after iterative contact attempts.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    What Are We Learning from Business Training and Entrepreneurship Evaluations around the Developing World?
    (Oxford University Press on behalf of the World Bank, 2014-01-24) Woodruff, Christopher; McKenzie, David
    Business training programs are a popular policy option to improve the performance of enterprises around the world, and the number of rigorous impact evaluations of these programs is growing. A critical review reveals that many evaluations suffer from small sample sizes, measure impacts only within a year of training, and experience problems with survey attrition and measurement that limit the conclusions one can draw. Over these short time horizons, there are relatively modest effects of training on the survivorship of existing firms. However, there is stronger evidence that training programs help prospective owners launch new businesses more quickly. Most studies find that existing firm owners implement some of the practices taught in training, but the magnitudes of the improvement to practices is often modest. Few studies find significant impacts on profits or sales, although some studies with greater statistical power have done so. There is little evidence to guide policymakers regarding whether any identified effects are due to trained firms drawing sales from competing businesses rather than through productivity improvements or to guide the development of the provision of training at market prices. We conclude by summarizing some directions and key questions for future studies.
  • Publication
    The Regulation of Digital Trade
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-01-04) Daza Jaller, Lillyana; Gaillard, Simon; Molinuevo, Martín
    One day, people will wonder how global trade was even possible with before goods and services were bought and sold in global digital markets without regard or even knowledge of where sellers and buyers where located. We are not there yet --not by a long shot. For now, digital trade remains segmented mostly along national and regional boundaries, due largely to a combination of lack of consumer trust in online transactions and regulatory differences across borders, as well as the inherent challenges of moving goods internationally. Regulation plays a central role in building the foundations of digital markets. It can provide the legal tools necessary for remote contracts, clarify the rights and obligations of the multiple actors involved in digital transactions, and establish a framework that promotes consumer trust in digital markets, even when the consumer does not know the merchant or when the merchant is in a different country. However, regulation can also further segment digital trade, de facto restricting digital transactions to within national boundaries, or allowing for cross-border transactions with some partners to flourish, while limiting others. This can be the intended result of regulatory measures that limit cross-border data flows or online purchases or may be the undesired effect of regulatory differences across countries that leads businesses to offer different goods and services across boundaries.
  • Publication
    Adapting Skills Training to Address Constraints to Women’s Participation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04-29) Rubiano-Matulevich, Eliana; Beegle, Kathleen
    This Jobs Solutions Note identifies practical solutions for development practitioners to design and implement skills training programs that improve outcomes for women. Based on curated knowledge and evidence for a specific topic and relevant to jobs, the Jobs Solutions Notes are not intended to be exhaustive; they provide key lessons, solutions and approaches synthesized from the experiences of the World Bank Group and partners. This Note draws on rigorous evidence stemming from impact evaluations, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and mixed-methods. The Note focuses on adaptations to address supply-side constraints, while acknowledging the importance of demand-side factors in influencing returns to skills training and labor market outcomes.
  • Publication
    Benchmarking Financial Systems around the World
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-08) Čihák, Martin; Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslı; Feyen, Erik; Levine, Ross
    This paper introduces the Global Financial Development Database, an extensive dataset of financial system characteristics for 205 economies from 1960 to 2010. The database includes measures of (a) size of financial institutions and markets (financial depth), (b) degree to which individuals can and do use financial services (access), (c) efficiency of financial intermediaries and markets in intermediating resources and facilitating financial transactions (efficiency), and (d) stability of financial institutions and markets (stability). The authors document cross-country differences and time series trends.
  • Publication
    Bank Capital Regulation and Risk after the Global Financial Crisis
    (Elsevier, 2021-05-17) Anginer, Deniz; Bertay, Ata Can; Cull, Robert; Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Mare, Davide S.
    We explore and summarize the evolution in bank capital regulations and bank risk after the global financial crisis. Using a new survey of bank regulation and supervision covering more than 120 economies, we show that regulatory capital increased, but some elements of capital regulations became laxer. Analyzing bank-level data, we also document the importance of defining bank regulatory capital narrowly as the quality of capital matters in reducing bank risk. This is particularly true for banks that have more discretion in the computation of regulatory capital ratios and are subject to weaker market monitoring.