Publication: Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks
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2023-11-21
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2023-11-21
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Abstract
Against the background of high inflation, climate shocks, and concerns about rising food insecurity, this study documents the state of economic sentiments and expectations of households in five African countries—Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, and Uganda—that are home to 36 percent of the Sub-Saharan African population. Leveraging nationally representative phone survey data, 57 percent of households across the five countries report that their financial situation and their country’s economic situation have worsened significantly in the past 12 months. While expectations for the future are more positive, there are marked differences across countries that suggest uneven recovery prospects and nonnegligible uncertainty about the future. Households overwhelmingly report prices to have increased considerably over the past 12 months and expect prices to increase faster, or at the same rate, over the next 12 months. Close to 54 percent of households—home to 206 million individuals—further expect that climate shocks will have adverse impacts on their finances in the next year. Economic sentiments are closely related to livelihood outcomes such as food insecurity, lack of access to staple foods, income loss, and unemployment, and sentiments about the household financial situation, country economic situation, price increases, and climate shocks are also interdependent. Households whose financial situation has worsened in the past year are consistently more pessimistic about their financial future. Food insecure households, in particular, are not only more likely to report a worsening financial situation in the recent past and pessimism about the future, but also more likely to expect to be adversely impacted by climate shocks.
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“Wollburg, Philip; Bentze, Thomas; Kilic, Talip. 2023. Economic Sentiments and Expectations in Sub-Saharan Africa in a Time of Multiple Shocks. Policy Research Working Paper; 10604. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40638 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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