Publication: Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks
Loading...
Date
2023-07-19
ISSN
Published
2023-07-19
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Gender segmentation in labor markets shapes the local effects of international trade. This paper develops a theory that embeds trade in gender-segmented labor markets and shows that in this framework, foreign demand shocks may increase or decrease the female-to-male employment ratio. If a foreign demand shock from a relevant market happens in a female-intensive (male-intensive) sector, the model predicts that the female-to-male employment ratio should increase (decrease). The paper then uses plausibly exogenous variation in the exposure of Tunisian local labor markets to foreign demand shocks and shows that the empirical results are consistent with the theoretical prediction. In Tunisia, a country with a high degree of gender segmentation in the labor markets, foreign demand shocks have been relatively larger in male-intensive sectors. This induced a decrease in the female-to-male employment ratio, with households likely substituting female for male labor supply.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Góes, Carlos; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys; Robertson, Raymond. 2023. Gender-Segmented Labor Markets and Trade Shocks. Policy Research Working Papers; 10518. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/40062 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Local Labor Market Dynamics and Export Shocks(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-01)This paper studies the dynamic effects of export exposure on local labor markets in Indonesia, that is, how an increase in exports affects a range of labor market indicators over time. The paper develops an empirical strategy to instrument exposure to foreign demand shocks and validates it by showing that labor market responses are consistent with what a quantitative spatial model would predict after demand shocks. The results show that employment, labor force, real wages, and real wage bills increase more in districts that are more exposed to foreign demand shocks—that is, where exports increase more—relative to the least exposed regions. Extending the analysis over multiple response horizons shows that these shocks persist six years after the foreign demand shock. Lastly, employment responses are stronger among skilled workers relative to unskilled workers and in the formal sector relative to the informal sector.Publication International Trade and Labor Markets(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-05)Since the early 1990s, some developing countries have experienced a coincidence of rising exports—especially those related to global value chains—and improved labor market outcomes. During 2000–10, rising trade was associated with falling poverty and inequality in many developing countries. However, the Arab Republic of Egypt was not one of these countries, although it signed several trade agreements. The lack of trade-related improvements in labor market outcomes—including poverty, inequality, average wage levels, informality, and female labor force participation—could be explained by at least two possibilities. First, it is possible that trade agreements did not produce the same increase in trade for Egypt as for other countries. Second, it is possible that exports do not generate the same kinds of changes in labor market outcomes as experienced in other countries. After presenting the trends in key labor market outcomes over 2000–19, this paper evaluates both hypotheses. Using a gravity model approach, the results suggest that the changes in Egypt’s exports following trade agreements are above internationally estimated averages. Second, the results from a Bartik approach find no significant relationship between rising exports and wages, informality, or female labor force participation. Additional analysis shows that Egypt’s average wage levels are among the highest among countries that export the same goods exported by Egypt, possibly suggesting that Egypt has a relatively weak comparative advantage in currently exported goods, and thus might need to rethink its export basket.Publication Is International Trade Always Beneficial to Labor Markets?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-10)The Arab Republic of Egypt’s industries rely heavily on imported goods for production. Thus, an increase in imports could have a potentially positive effect on the labor market as it means more inputs for the production of exporting goods. Alternatively, minimal backward linkages in global value chains could also mean that increasing imports substitute for domestic production and, thus, lost employment opportunities. This paper evaluates the relationship between regional trade agreements using a gravity model and import flows to test whether rising imports have impacted wages, informality, and female labor force participation. The results suggest that imports are not to blame for disappointing labor market outcomes in Egypt.Publication Short and Long-Run Labor Market Effects of Developing Country Exports(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-03)This paper studies how a positive export shock -- the sharp increase in garment-sector exports that began at the end of the Multifibre Arrangement (MFA) -- spread through Bangladesh's labor markets. Although the end of the MFA was arguably exogenous to Bangladesh, the authors instrument export demand with OECD imports to ensure identification. The paper compares estimates of the local labor market effects (wages and informality) and estimates from wage equations that reflect the predictions from long-run, general-equilibrium neoclassical trade theory. As in other studies, this paper finds that the export shock was localized both in terms of sector and geography. Wages increased and informality decreased in sub-districts more exposed to the export shock. Unlike in other studies, these local labor market effects dissipate quickly. Furthermore, Bangladesh's export shock was sector specific, limited predominantly to the female-intensive garment and textile sector. The paper shows that, following the increase in exports of the female-intensive good, the male-female wage gap closes considerably throughout the country -- not just in the apparel sector. In relatively small Bangladesh, the national labor market seems to be more integrated compared to larger countries studied, possibly suggesting that labor adjustment costs are lower in smaller countries.Publication Dynamic Exports and Labor Markets for Inclusive Growth in Cambodia(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-09)Cambodia’s rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and structural transformation. This growth has been extensively associated with more employment, higher wages, shared prosperity, and poverty reduction. By combining two complementary approaches, the gravity model and the Bartik model, this paper estimates: (i) the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows, and (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and various local labor market outcomes. The gravity estimates show that trade agreements between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are positively related with trade flows, and that Cambodia’s specific gains from these increases in trade have been larger than for the average trade agreement. This has led to better results for workers in Cambodia’s local labor markets. The shift-share Bartik results suggest that increases in trade exposure in Cambodian districts between 2009 and 2019 correlate with reduced informality and an increase in hours worked, with more positive effects for female workers.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-29)Commodity prices are expected to decrease by 5 percent in 2025 and 2 percent in 2026. The projected declines are led by oil prices but tempered by price increases for natural gas and a stable outlook for metals and agricultural raw materials. The possibility of escalating conflict in the Middle East represents a substantial near-term upside risk to energy prices, with potential knock-on consequences for other commodities. However, over the forecast horizon, longer-term dynamics—including decelerating global oil demand, diversifying oil production, and ample oil supply capacity—suggest sizable downside risks to oil prices, especially if OPEC+ unwinds its latest production cuts. There are also dual risks to industrial commodity demand stemming from economic activity. On the one hand, concerted stimulus in China and above-trend growth in the United States could push commodity prices higher. On the other, weaker-than-anticipated global industrial activity could dampen them. Following several overlapping global shocks in the early 2020s, which drove parallel swings in commodity prices, commodity markets appear to be departing from a period of tight synchronization. A Special Focus analyzes commodity price synchronization over time and considers the relative importance across commodity cycles of a wide range of demand and supply shocks, including global demand shocks and shocks specific to different commodity markets. It concludes that, while supply shocks were the dominant commodity price driver in the early 2000s and around the global financial crisis, post-pandemic price movements have been more substantially shaped by commodity-specific shocks, such as those related to conflicts.Publication Gender-Based Violence Country Profile(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-06-01)With a population of approximately 18.2 million people, Guatemala is the most populous country in Central America. Guatemala has one of the highest rates of femicide in the world, with violent deaths of women increasing from 1.3 per 100,000 women in 2020 to 1.6 per 100,000 women in 2021, resulting in 527 femicides reported in 2021 and 534 in 2022, and 69 femicides reported by March 2023. High-risk groups facing multiple and intersecting forms of discrimination include young and adolescent girls, indigenous women, those who have experienced adolescent pregnancies, early unions or marriages, women and girls living with disabilities, and LGBTQ+ groups. In order to address violence and discrimination against women and girls in Guatemala, various initiatives and policies have been implemented by the government and civil society organizations. However, much work remains to be done to effectively address the root causes of these issues and ensure the safety and wellbeing of all women and girls in the country.Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication Cybersecurity Economics for Emerging Markets(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-17)In our increasingly interconnected world, where digital technologies are rapidly transforming multiple aspects of daily life, the critical role of cybersecurity cannot be overstated, especially in developing nations. As these countries strive to harness the power of modern technology to drive economic growth, enhance public services, and elevate living standards, they concurrently face heightened risks associated with cyber threats. The increasing exposure of developing countries to cyber incidents is often compounded by various factors, including scarce resources, inadequate infrastructure, political unrest, inefficiencies in cybersecurity and technology markets, shortages of skilled cybersecurity professionals, legislative voids, and rapid rates of digital adoption. "Cybersecurity Economics for Emerging Markets" is a pioneering research work that delves into the drivers and profound consequences of cyber incidents worldwide. From economic setbacks that can destabilize entire economies to interruptions of vital services and impediments to social and economic development, the impacts of cyber incidents are far-reaching. This book analyzes hundreds of scholarly works and thousands of publicly disclosed cyber incidents over the past decade across some 190 countries. It sheds light on these incidents’ characteristics and trends, as well as the proactive roles that private market players and governments can assume to safeguard infrastructure in cyberspace effectively. The book presents practical, evidence-based policy suggestions that include efforts to strengthen the resilience of the most essential and interconnected sectors. It advocates for bolstering the national cybersecurity industries, strategizing cybersecurity research and development, addressing market failures through cybersecurity awareness and training programs, and taking proactive steps to reduce and control contagion effects from cyber incidents. By revealing crucial empirical and theoretical dimensions of cybersecurity economics, this book provides insights that could inform the creation of effective cybersecurity investments, with a focus on developing countries. These insights are invaluable for policy makers and stakeholders committed to fortifying the digital ecosystem against the ever-evolving landscape of cyber threats.