Publication: Groundswell Africa: Internal Climate Migration in the Lake Victoria Basin Countries
Loading...
Date
2021-10-18
ISSN
Published
2021-10-18
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in the Lake Victoria Basin. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. Without concrete climate and development action, the five Lake Victoria Basin countries could see between 16.6 and 38.5 million people moving within their countries in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. Concrete climate and development action could reduce the scale of internal climate migration across the Basin countries by 30 percent. No country in the Lake Victoria Basin is immune to internal climate migration, but there are differences among countries depending on their demographic, economic, and climate trends. Tanzania and Uganda are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050, reaching a high of 16.6 million and 12.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario (which combines high emissions with unequal development pathways). This will be followed by Kenya (7.6 million), Rwanda (1.2 million), and Burundi (1.0 million). This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that the countries in the Basin are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration - the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Rigaud, Kanta Kumari; de Sherbinin, Alex; Jones, Bryan; Adamo, Susana; Maleki, David; Arora, Anmol; Casals Fernandez, Anna Taeko; Chai-Onn, Tricia; Mills, Briar. 2021. Groundswell Africa: Internal Climate Migration in the Lake Victoria Basin Countries. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/36403 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)This report, as part of the Groundswell Africa series, reaffirms the potency for climate change to drive internal migration in West African countries. The results described in this report are based on the application of an enhanced version of the pioneering Groundswell model with a more granular analysis and additional features better placed to inform policy dialogue and action. The study finds that without concrete climate and development action, up to 32 million people in West Africa could be compelled to move within their countries by 2050 as a consequence of slow onset climate impacts in response to water scarcity, declines in crop productivity and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise, augmented by storm surge. The analysis also includes consideration of nonclimate factors. The countries will see an emergence of climate in- and climate out-migration hotspots, as early as 2030, but with continued spread and intensification by 2050. These numbers are not predestined—and could be reduced at the regional level by about 60 percent with concrete climate and development action. Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal are projected to have the highest numbers of internal climate migrants by 2050: reaching a high of 19.1 million, 9.4 million, and 1.0 million, respectively, under the pessimistic scenario. A special focus on the 5-kilometer coastal zone of West Africa reveals that between 0.3 million and 2.2 million people could be compelled to move within their countries just for this coastal belt by 2050. This report presents the Migration and Climate-informed Solutions (MACS) framework that brings together domains of action, buttressed by core policy areas, to reduce the scale of climate-induced migration, usher in social and economic transformations, and reduce vulnerabilities. This anticipatory approach will ensure that West African countries are braced not just for the challenges but have the readiness to harness the opportunities of internal climate migration. The urgency to reduce greenhouse gases remains paramount to reduce the scale of climate impacts that could otherwise drive increased levels of climate migration –the window of opportunity is rapidly narrowing.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)Between its natural wealth with diverse cultures, increasingly rapid urbanization, and some of the world’s most impressive wildlife, Tanzania strikes visitors as a country of diversity and dynamism. At the same time, the country is facing challenges from climate change that will put its people, policymakers, and ecosystems to a test. Migration has long been a strategy of Tanzanians to deal with adverse climatic conditions, but as this report illustrates, climate change will put further pressure on people to leave their homes and look for new opportunities elsewhere within the country’s borders. This study shows that Tanzania could see as many as 16.6 million internal climate migrants by 2050. Immediate, rapid and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community, and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration, on average, by about 27 percent.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)Uganda is a diverse and verdant country. From the tall volcanic mountains along the eastern and western borders to the densely forested wetlands of the Albert Nile River and the rainforests in the center of the country, it encompasses many different ecosystems. Kampala, the capital city, is built around seven hills not far from the shores of Lake Victoria. These varying landscapes provide Ugandans with ample resources to capitalize on tourism and cultivate crops, including Ugandan coffee, which has become a favorite of coffee drinkers around the world. These rich and beautiful landscapes, however, are under threat from climate change, which could have disastrous effects for Ugandans. This report shows that by 2050, as many as 12 million people, or 11 percent of the population could move within Uganda because of slow onset climate factors, without concrete climate and development action. Immediate, rapid, and aggressive action on the cutting down emissions as a global community and pursuing inclusive resilient development at the national level could bring down this scale of climate migration by about 35 per cent. Contextualizing the results from an innovative climate migration model applied to Lake Victoria Basin countries, it finds that such climate-induced migration, if unattended, may deepen existing vulnerabilities across the country, potentially leading to greater poverty, fragility, and conflict. As lives, livelihoods, and the economy are integrally linked to the environment, addressing climate change is an imperative for Uganda. Adopting inclusive development policies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and integrate climate resilience could decrease the number of internal migrants significantly. Acting early and focusing on improved management of forest and other landscapes, developing local job opportunities, and providing basic services for both host communities and refugees will be important to help these communities survive and thrive in a changing climate. The right mix of policies would also encourage the ingenuity and energy of Uganda’s youthful population, which is projected to almost triple by 2050.Publication Groundswell Part 2(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-09-13)This sequel to the Groundswell report includes projections and analysis of internal climate migration for three new regions: East Asia and the Pacific, North Africa, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Qualitative analyses of climate-related mobility in countries of the Mashreq and in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are also provided. This new report builds on the scenario-based modeling approach of the previous Groundswell report from 2018, which covered Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America. The two reports’ combined findings provide, for the first time, a global picture of the potential scale of internal climate migration across the six regions, allowing for a better understanding of how slow-onset climate change impacts, population dynamics, and development contexts shape mobility trends. They also highlight the far-sighted planning needed to meet this challenge and ensure positive and sustainable development outcomes. The combined results across the six regions show that without early and concerted climate and development action, as many as 216 million people could move within their own countries due to slow-onset climate change impacts by 2050. They will migrate from areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by sea-level rise and storm surges. Hotspots of internal climate migration could emerge as early as 2030 and continue to spread and intensify by 2050. The reports also finds that rapid and concerted action to reduce global emissions, and support green, inclusive, and resilient development, could significantly reduce the scale of internal climate migration.Publication Groundswell Africa(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-18)The World Bank’s flagship report Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration finds that Sub-Saharan Africa is likely to witness high levels of climate-induced mobility (Rigaud et al. 2018). An expanded and deeper analysis through Groundswell Africa, focusing on West African countries, reaffirms this pattern region. The recent study projects that by 2050, without concrete climate and development action, West Africa could see as many as 32.0 million people move because of slow-onset climate impacts, such as water stress, drops in crop and ecosystem productivity, and sea level rise compounded by storm surge. These spatial population shifts will represent up to 3.5 percent of the total population of West Africa. Understanding the scale and the patterns of these climate-induced spatial population shifts is critical to inform policy dialogue, planning, and action to avert, minimize, and better manage climate-induced migration for dignified, productive, and sustainable outcomes. By 2050, internal climate migration in Senegal could reach more than 1 million. This figure represents 3.3 percent of the population, at the high end of the confidence interval under the pessimistic scenario, which combines high emissions with unequal development. In alternative scenarios, more inclusive and climate-friendly, the scale of climate migration would be reduced. The greatest gains in modulating the scale of climate migration are realized under the optimistic scenario, which combines low emissions with moderate development pathways. The number of climate migrants would drop from a mean value of 600,000 under the pessimistic and reference scenario in 2050 to 90,000 in 2050 under the optimistic scenario, which translates into a reduction of 85 percent. This major drop underscores the critical need for both inclusive development and low emissions to modulate the scale of climate migration, with the greatest gains achieved through early action.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Ten Steps to a Results-Based Monitoring and Evaluation System : A Handbook for Development Practitioners(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004)An effective state is essential to achieving socio-economic and sustainable development. With the advent of globalization, there are growing pressures on governments and organizations around the world to be more responsive to the demands of internal and external stakeholders for good governance, accountability and transparency, greater development effectiveness, and delivery of tangible results. Governments, parliaments, citizens, the private sector, Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs), civil society, international organizations, and donors are among the stakeholders interested in better performance. As demands for greater accountability and real results have increased, there is an attendant need for enhanced results-based monitoring and evaluation of policies, programs, and projects. This handbook provides a comprehensive ten-step model that will help guide development practitioners through the process of designing and building a results-based monitoring and evaluation system. These steps begin with a 'readiness assessment' and take the practitioner through the design, management, and importantly, the sustainability of such systems. The handbook describes each step in detail, the tasks needed to complete each one, and the tools available to help along the way.Publication Zimbabwe(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-03-01)This report presents an assessment of Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector disaster risk and management capacity. The findings indicate that Zimbabwe is highly exposed to agricultural risks and has limited capacity to manage risk at various levels. The report shows that disaster-related shocks along Zimbabwe’s agricultural supply chains directly translate to volatility in agricultural GDP. Such shocks have a substantial impact on economic growth, food security, and fiscal balance. When catastrophic disasters occur, the economy absorbs the shocks, without benefiting from any instruments that transfer the risk to markets and coping ability. The increasing prevalence of ‘shock recovery-shock’ cycles impairs Zimbabwe’s ability to plan and pursue a sustainable development path. The findings presented here confirm that it is highly pertinent for Zimbabwe to strengthen the capacity to manage risk at various levels, from the smallholder farmer, to other participants along the supply chain, to consumers (who require a reliable, safe food supply), and ultimately to the government to manage natural disasters. The assessment provides the following evidence on sources of risks and plausible risk management solutions. It is our hope that the report contributes to action by the Government of Zimbabwe to adopt a proactive and integrated risk management strategy appropriate to the current structure of the agricultural sector.Publication World Development Report 2019(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019)Work is constantly reshaped by technological progress. New ways of production are adopted, markets expand, and societies evolve. But some changes provoke more attention than others, in part due to the vast uncertainty involved in making predictions about the future. The 2019 World Development Report will study how the nature of work is changing as a result of advances in technology today. Technological progress disrupts existing systems. A new social contract is needed to smooth the transition and guard against rising inequality. Significant investments in human capital throughout a person’s lifecycle are vital to this effort. If workers are to stay competitive against machines they need to train or retool existing skills. A social protection system that includes a minimum basic level of protection for workers and citizens can complement new forms of employment. Improved private sector policies to encourage startup activity and competition can help countries compete in the digital age. Governments also need to ensure that firms pay their fair share of taxes, in part to fund this new social contract. The 2019 World Development Report presents an analysis of these issues based upon the available evidence.Publication The Power of Survey Design : A User's Guide for Managing Surveys, Interpreting Results, and Influencing Respondents(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2006)The vast majority of data used for economic research, analysis, and policy design comes from surveys-surveys of households, firms, schools, hospitals, and market participants, and, the accuracy of the estimate will depend on how well the survey is done. This innovative book is both a 'how-to' go about carrying out high-quality surveys, especially in the challenging environment of developing countries, and a 'user's guide' for anyone who uses statistical data. Reading this book will provide data users with a wealth of insight into what kinds of problems, or biases to look for in different data sources, based on the underlying survey approaches that were used to generate the data. In that sense the book is an invaluable 'skeptics guide to data'. Yet, the broad storyline of the book is something that should be absorbed by statistical data users. The book will teach and show how difficult it often is to obtain reliable estimates of important social and economic facts, and, therefore encourages you to approach all estimates with sensible caution.Publication Supporting Youth at Risk(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008)The World Bank has produced this policy Toolkit in response to a growing demand from our government clients and partners for advice on how to create and implement effective policies for at-risk youth. The author has highlighted 22 policies (six core policies, nine promising policies, and seven general policies) that have been effective in addressing the following five key risk areas for young people around the world: (i) youth unemployment, underemployment, and lack of formal sector employment; (ii) early school leaving; (iii) risky sexual behavior leading to early childbearing and HIV/AIDS; (iv) crime and violence; and (v) substance abuse. The objective of this Toolkit is to serve as a practical guide for policy makers in middle-income countries as well as professionals working within the area of youth development on how to develop and implement an effective policy portfolio to foster healthy and positive youth development.