Publication: The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds: Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine
Date
2021-06-25
ISSN
Published
2021-06-25
Author(s)
World Bank
Abstract
Since 2014, the armed conflict in
Ukraine’s eastern provinces (oblasts) of Donetsk and Luhansk
has dealt a heavy blow to people’s lives. The conflict has
magnified the long-standing problems and created new ones.
This study shows that scaling up efforts in the
government-controlled areas (GCAs) of Donbas is desirable
despite the subdued productivity in the region. This study
recommends a decision tree approach to programming recovery
in Donbas. Given the looming uncertainties and
scenario-sensitivity of optimal policies, the recovery
strategy should distinguish contingent policies from
no-regret policies. Contingent policies change between the
status quo and the reintegration scenarios, and they include
interventions to mitigate conflict-related risks,
risk-related transfers to address skill-shortages in GCAs,
and investments for a contingent infrastructure strategy. By
comparison, no-regret policies are desirable regardless of
the conflict dynamics. They include the reforms to eliminate
regulatory burdens and corruption; policies to open up the
housing market; investments to modernize education for jobs
and target low-hanging fruits in infrastructure; and efforts
to produce better data to address knowledge gaps.
Citation
“World Bank. 2021. The Economics of Winning Hearts and Minds : Programming Recovery in Eastern Ukraine. © World Bank, Washington, DC. http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35908 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”