Publication: From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries
Date
2011-06-01
ISSN
Published
2011-06-01
Author(s)
Abstract
Economic development is a process of
continuous industrial and technological upgrading in which
any country, regardless of its level of development, can
succeed if it develops industries that are consistent with
its comparative advantage, determined by its endowment
structure. The secret winning formula for developing
countries is to exploit the latecomer advantage by building
up industries that are growing dynamically in more advanced
fast growing countries that have endowment structures
similar to theirs. By following carefully selected lead
countries, latecomers can emulate the leader-follower,
flying-geese pattern that has served well successfully
catching-up economies since the 18th century. The emergence
of large middle-income countries such as China, India, and
Brazil as new growth poles in the world, and their dynamic
growth and climbing of the industrial ladder, offer an
unprecedented opportunity to all developing economies with
income levels currently below theirs --including those in
Sub-Saharan Africa. Having itself been a "follower
goose," China is on the verge of graduating from
low-skilled manufacturing jobs and becoming a "leading
dragon." That will free up nearly 100 million
labor-intensive manufacturing jobs, enough to more than
quadruple manufacturing employment in low-income countries.
A similar trend is emerging in other middle-income growth
poles. The lower-income countries that can formulate and
implement a viable strategy to capture this new
industrialization opportunity will set forth on a dynamic
path of structural change that can lead to poverty reduction
and prosperity.
Citation
“Lin, Justin Yifu. 2011. From Flying Geese to Leading Dragons : New Opportunities and Strategies for Structural Transformation in Developing Countries. Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5702. © http://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/3466 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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