Publication:
Nigeria Biannual Economic Update, April 2019: Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene – A Wake-up Call

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (8.17 MB)
1,946 downloads
English Text (231.9 KB)
106 downloads
Date
2019-04-01
ISSN
Published
2019-04-01
Editor(s)
Abstract
Nigeria's emergence from recession remains slow: real GDP grew by 1.9 percent in 2018. While this was above the 0.8 percent growth of 2017, it was below the population growth rate, government projections and pre-recession levels. The oil and gas sector reverted to contraction from the second quarter of the year and the non-oil economy was thus the main driver of growth in 2018. While agriculture slowed down significantly due to conflict and weather events, whose effects were not counteracted by direct interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), non-oil, non-agricultural growth, which remained negative up to the third quarter of 2017 strengthened through 2018 - but remained weak – with services (primarily ICT) resuming as the key driver. As the oil sector is not labor-intensive, and the non-oil economy was still relatively weak, nearly a quarter of the work force was unemployed in 2018; and another 20 percent under-employed. With 3.9 million net entrants into the labor force (now 90.5 million people) during 2018 (up to September) (4.5 percent growth), but virtually no growth in the stock of jobs, unemployment rose by 2.7 percentage points since end-2017, and more than doubled compared to the pre-recession levels (9.9 percent in Q3 of 2015).
Link to Data Set
Citation
World Bank Group. 2019. Nigeria Biannual Economic Update, April 2019: Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene – A Wake-up Call. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31514 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Nigeria Biannual Economic Update, April 2018
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-04) World Bank Group
    The Nigeria Biannual Economic Update is a product of the staff of the World Bank and has three broad aims. First, it reports on the key developments in the Nigerian Economy in the recent past Secondly, it summarizes the likely economic outcomes in the short-to-medium term, given the policy developments, and highlights key short-term risks and upside potentials. Finally, the Update provides a more in-depth examination of selected highly relevant economic issues. The Nigeria Biannual Economic Update is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged inNigeria’s economy.
  • Publication
    Nigeria Biannual Economic Update, Fall 2018
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-11-21) World Bank Group
    The Nigerian economy remains dependent on the small oil sector (under 10 percent of GDP) for the bulk of its fiscal revenues and foreign exchange earnings. This makes Nigeria’s balance of payments and government budgets vulnerable to volatilities in oil prices. Indeed, growth and investment in Nigeria have been negatively impacted by repeated oil-price driven boom-bust cycles. The oil price shock of late 2014 and its aftermath pushed the economy into recession and precipitated a major budgetary crisis at the national and state levels which brought to light the longer-term trend of weak domestic revenue mobilization. Nigeria’s weak revenue mobilization has major implications for growth and development, including for improving its dire social service delivery outcomes. Thus, the country needs to take concrete steps to break its oil dependency to improve its economic and social outcomes. Oil revenues are recovering with increasing oil prices, but distributions to the tiers of government are constrained by the unbudgeted fuel subsidy and other deductions. The fuel subsidy, no longer an explicit first line deduction from oil revenues, mostly benefits the affluent and it is also widely-known that a portion of Nigeria’s imported petrol is smuggled out to neighboring countries where petrol is more expensive. The constrained net oil revenues, combined with non-oil revenues that are constrained by limited tax policy reforms and are thus stagnated (relative to GDP), limit overall revenue realization, thus constraining budget execution and the build-up of fiscal buffers. The growth in the public debt stock between the first half of 2017 and the first half of 2018 was mainly attributable to the increased Eurobond issuances, some of which were used to liquidate costlier domestic short-term debt. The Nigeria Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) 2017-2020 aims to achieve macroeconomic stability and economic diversification and there is thus the need to accelerate its implementation progress. The special focus topic for this report is on human capital development in Nigeria. Studies show that between 10 and 30 percent of the differences in per capita income between countries can be attributed to human capital. The economic burden of malaria alone in Nigeria, accounting for direct and indirect costs excluding mortality, is estimated at 13.5 percent of GDP. However, in the quest for sustainable growth, Nigeria, like many other countries, has underinvested in human capital. While physical capital remains critical, it does not fully account for improvements in growth.
  • Publication
    Cote d'Ivoire Economic Update, March 2015
    (World Bank, Abidjan, 2015-03) World Bank Group
    First in a series, which aims to analyze the recent economic and financial situation in Côte d'Ivoire, this report analyzes the main macroeconomic developments and structural policies of the country from 2013 until mid-2014. It also reflects on the underlying factors of the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire since the end of the post-election crisis, to assess the likelihood of sustained economic growth and significant poverty reduction in the country. Finally, the report analyzes the effects of declining oil prices and the appreciation of the dollar against the euro and the CFA franc on the Ivorian economy. This edition does not examine the impact of strong economic growth on the Ivoirian population's well-being indicators such as, poverty, employment and inequality. Within the scope of this report, the objective is to understand the factors contributing to the strong economic recovery in Côte d'Ivoire. This economic update is targeted toward a larger audience, in order to stimulate constructive debate on public policy in the country and between the country and its development partners.
  • Publication
    Nigeria Bi-Annual Economic Update, April 2017
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04) World Bank
    This economic update provides an overview of recent developments in the Nigerian economy.Low oil revenues and the lack of major tax policy reforms to significantly increase non-oil revenues led to large revenue shortfalls at all levels of governmentin 2016. Monetary policy remained accommodative, with broad money growth at 18.5 percent, driven by increased lending from the Central Bank to the Government to finance the budget deficit. After a sharp depreciation of the exchange rate following the June 2016 liberalization of the Naira,the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintained theinterbank exchange rate at around N 305 per USD. The chapter second describes the World Bank's view on Nigeria's economic outlook for 2017. The chapter third summarizes the findings of a forthcoming Bank report Toward Sustainable Growth in Nigeria: Empirical Analysis and Policy options, which analyzes the patterns of economic growth in Nigeria; the underlying determinants of growth from both a macro and micro perspective; and policy priorities tosupport higher growth. In addition, analysis of constraints to doing business and the impact of current trade policies highlights the need to improve access to finance, improve the reliability of power supply, and adjust trade policies to promote productivity growth.
  • Publication
    Kyrgyz Republic Biannual Economic Update, Fall 2015
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10) World Bank Group
    GDP grew at a rate of 6.8 percent, year-on-year (y/y), between January and August, boosted by frontloaded gold production and a strong performance of the agricultural sector. Gold output grew by 46 percent (y/y), while the non-gold GDP growth rate reached 4.5 percent, up 0.9 percentage points from the same period in the previous year. However, gold production is projected to decelerate markedly during the remainder of 2015, while increasingly adverse external conditions and exchange-rate developments are expected to depress domestic consumption and private investment, as well as foreign demand. As a result, the overall growth rate for 2015 is projected to slow to 2 percent. As of August the headline inflation rate had fallen to 5.8 percent (y/y) from 10.5 percent at end-2014, but the combined effect of higher public spending and exchange-rate pressures are expected to drive up prices during the final months of the year, underscoring the importance of maintaining a tight monetary stance. Looking beyond 2015, the Kyrgyz economy is projected to recover over the medium term, and public finances are expected to stabilize, but this generally positive outlook is subject to significant downside risks. In the baseline scenario, growth is projected to accelerate to 4.2 percent in 2016, driven by higher gold production and an expected acceleration in regional economic activity. Growth in the non-gold sectors should be relatively robust at around 3.7 percent, but a slower-than-anticipated recovery in Russia and Kazakhstan could threaten this projection. Moreover, slower growth in both the domestic and regional economies could complicate the process of fiscal consolidation.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05) World Bank
    Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    The Container Port Performance Index 2023
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18) World Bank
    The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-01-09) World Bank
    Note: Chart 1.2.B has been updated on January 18, 2024. Chart 2.2.3 B has been updated on January 14, 2024. Global growth is expected to slow further this year, reflecting the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy to rein in inflation, restrictive credit conditions, and anemic global trade and investment. Downside risks include an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East, financial stress, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected activity in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters. Against this backdrop, policy makers face enormous challenges. In emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), commodity exporters face the enduring challenges posed by fiscal policy procyclicality and volatility, which highlight the need for robust fiscal frameworks. Across EMDEs, previous episodes of investment growth acceleration underscore the critical importance of macroeconomic and structural policies and an enabling institutional environment in bolstering investment and long-term growth. At the global level, cooperation needs to be strengthened to provide debt relief, facilitate trade integration, tackle climate change, and alleviate food insecurity.