Publication: Kyrgyz Republic Biannual Economic Update, Fall 2015: Resilience Amid Turbulence
Loading...
Published
2015-10
ISSN
Date
2015-11-10
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
GDP grew at a rate of 6.8 percent, year-on-year (y/y), between January and August, boosted by frontloaded gold production and a strong performance of the agricultural sector. Gold output grew by 46 percent (y/y), while the non-gold GDP growth rate reached 4.5 percent, up 0.9 percentage points from the same period in the previous year. However, gold production is projected to decelerate markedly during the remainder of 2015, while increasingly adverse external conditions and exchange-rate developments are expected to depress domestic consumption and private investment, as well as foreign demand. As a result, the overall growth rate for 2015 is projected to slow to 2 percent. As of August the headline inflation rate had fallen to 5.8 percent (y/y) from 10.5 percent at end-2014, but the combined effect of higher public spending and exchange-rate pressures are expected to drive up prices during the final months of the year, underscoring the importance of maintaining a tight monetary stance. Looking beyond 2015, the Kyrgyz economy is projected to recover over the medium term, and public finances are expected to stabilize, but this generally positive outlook is subject to significant downside risks. In the baseline scenario, growth is projected to accelerate to 4.2 percent in 2016, driven by higher gold production and an expected acceleration in regional economic activity. Growth in the non-gold sectors should be relatively robust at around 3.7 percent, but a slower-than-anticipated recovery in Russia and Kazakhstan could threaten this projection. Moreover, slower growth in both the domestic and regional economies could complicate the process of fiscal consolidation.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2015. Kyrgyz Republic Biannual Economic Update, Fall 2015: Resilience Amid Turbulence. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22951 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2013(Washington, DC, 2013-04)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 31, March 2014 : Confidence Crisis Exposes Economic Weakness(Moscow, 2014-03)Real Gross Domestic Product or GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.3 percent in 2013 from 3.4 percent of 2012. In January 2013, we projected 3.6 percent growth for 2013, but while the global economy has continued to improve at a moderate pace, Russia's is struggling to find its footing. The first part of this report explores the recent economic developments that underlie this slowdown. To emerge from the downturn with improved long-term prospects Russia will need a combination of cyclical and structural policy measures. As the relative weight of the reasons for Russia's downturn is tilted toward structural factors, structural measures will need to lead the rebound. The lack of more comprehensive structural reforms in the past has led to a gradual erosion of investor confidence. This was masked by a growth model based on large investment projects, continued increases in public wages, and transfers, all fueled by sizeable oil revenues. Recent events around the Crimea have compounded the lingering confidence problem into a crisis of confidence and more clearly exposed the economic weakness of this growth model. Investor pessimism became the decisive factor affecting Russia's economic outlook, presented in part two of the report. The special focus note in part three discusses the link between Russia's growth in the past decade and how it fueled an unprecedented growth in household welfare.Publication Taking Stock, June 2010(World Bank, Hanoi, 2010-06)Vietnam has navigated the global crisis better than many other countries. GDP grew by 5.3 percent in 2009, accelerating to 6.9 percent in the last quarter of the year. At 5.8 percent, the figure for the first quarter of 2010 was less impressive, but claims that growth has slowed down are most probably unwarranted. Exports declined in 2009, for the first time since the beginning of economic reforms, but their decline was smaller than in other countries of the region. By now export growth is converging back to the 30 percent annual growth rate observed before the crisis. Inflation, which had reached 19.9 percent in 2008, was down to 6.5 percent in 2009. While there were some worrying signs of inflation acceleration in late 2009 and early 2010, by now the monthly increase of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is again moderate. And as in previous years, there were no banking crises despite the continuation of macroeconomic turbulence. More generally, lack of clarity by markets forces the government to overshoot in its policy reactions. Because markets are not sure to understand what the government is up to, they need to see very strong action in order to be convinced that the right course of action has been taken. As a result, Vietnam has had to go through dramatic shifts in the policy stance as circumstances changed. The stabilization policies of 2008 effectively 'killed' the real estate bubble and brought inflation rates to zero in just a few months, but such speed took a toll on economic activity. The stimulus policies of 2009 were equally strong and determined, but they ended up putting too much pressure on international reserves. With more information disclosure and better communication, policy shifts could perhaps be less extreme. Combined with stronger macroeconomic management, it should be possible for Vietnam to gradually free itself from the 'stop-and-go' cycle that has characterized macroeconomic policies over the last three years.Publication Russia Economic Report, No. 30, September 2013 : Structural Challenges to Growth Become Binding(Washington, DC, 2013-09)Russia's economy lost steam in 2013. Growth slowed to 1.4 percent in the first half (H1) of 2013, compared to 4.5 percent in H1 2012. This report examines in its first part several aspects of the economic slowdown. It shows that the slowdown was largely the result of weaker demand, which was due to a combination of external and domestic factors, some of which are cyclical and others structural. The structural challenges to the Russian economy and its growth, such as non-competitive sectors and markets, are another important factor to consider in the economic slowdown. The special focus note in part three of this report discusses the link between growth patterns in Russia, firm survival and diversification in manufacturing and will also highlight the impact of limited competition as a structural constraint. This note looks at the role of growth volatility as a possible explanation. It examines the role of surges and slumps in manufacturing output and its microeconomic implications in the dynamics of emergence and sustainability of nascent economic activities. The dynamics of the industrial output of the economy as whole, between 1993 and 2009, are the focus of this study. This note examines the downturns that magnify and accelerate the cleansing effects to the economy in forcing inefficient firms to exit, as well as the upturns that set the foundations of economic diversification by giving new economic activities the opportunity to emerge. This note has three main findings. First, Russian manufacturing output growth is characterized by a higher volatility than other comparator countries. Second, this volatility is mostly driven by more numerous, deeper and longer slumps and is mostly associated with aggregate slumps that have yearly effects. Third, while the economic surges increase the probability that productive firms remain in the market, the same is not true of economic slumps-older firms, not necessarily more productive ones, are more likely to survive the downturn. Furthermore, in sectors in which competition is less fierce, firms have a higher likelihood of weathering a slump.Publication Nepal Development Update, October 2013(World Bank, Kathmandu, 2013-10)Nepal's political developments continue to overshadow and impede its economic development. Over the short term, whether the scheduled elections are held and, if so, whether they achieve a modicum of consensus will be a major test. Political instability clouded the outlook in FY2013 and remains the principal source of vulnerability going forward. While Nepal's macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable, sources of vulnerability have not disappeared. Although the financial sector has rebuilt strength, it remains an important source of weakness. Important initiatives to improve the governance environment have been taken, but these initiatives can be amplified further. For FY2014, the baseline scenario is a gradual return to trend, with higher growth and sustainable fiscal expansion. While important psychologically and for some sectors of the economy, the recent depreciation of the Nepal rupee is not expected to hold back growth or to threaten macroeconomic stability. While a revision of the peg with India may eventually be warranted, the report agrees with Nepali policy makers that this is not the time when markets are unstable to move impulsively. Instead, such a major policy shift should be based on clear policy objectives and in-depth analysis of likely economic outcomes, including the long-term impact on Nepal's trade competitiveness. The report is structured as follows: chapter one gives summary; chapter two gives recent economic developments; chapter three gives policies and short- to medium-term development challenges; chapter four presents short and medium-term economic projections; chapter five focuses on bank support and activities; and chapter six presents special focus.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.