Russia Economic Report, May 2017

Abstract

Global growth and trade started to strengthen at the end of 2016. Russia’s economy showed signs of overcoming the recession caused by the shocks of low oil prices and economic sanctions. Tradable sectors benefitted from the relative price adjustment and stabilizing commodity prices in the second half of 2016 and became the main drivers of economic growth, partly through increased exports. This report highlights the varying implications of the oil price shock on oil exporters, and how Russia has adapted well compared to others. SME is a priority sector for the Russian government that was hit the hardest by the recession as SME loans experienced the sharpest decline compared to other market segments. These, and other related disparities, are discussed in detail in the report. Part 3 of the report discusses in detail, Russian regions have weathered the slowdown in the economy fairly well in the recent past – showcasing low deficits and broadly moderate debt levels. The report elaborates, being among the top three oil exporters in the world, the Russian oil sector has demonstrated resilience, increasing production and exports despite headwinds, thanks to increased production by small- and medium size producers. Finally the report discusses various methods and measures of total factor productivity (TFP) growth in Russia, all which yield the same conclusion as summarized.