Publication: The Impact of Aquatic Salinization on Fish Habitats and Poor Communities in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Southwest Coastal Bangladesh
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Date
2017-09
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0921-8009
Published
2017-09
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Fisheries constitute an important source of livelihoods for tens of thousands of poor people in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh, and they supply a significant portion of protein for millions. Among the various threats fisheries in the southwest coastal region will face because of climate change, adverse impacts from increased aquatic salinity caused by sea level rise will be one of the greatest challenges. This paper investigates possible impacts of climate change on aquatic salinity, fish species habitats, and poor communities using the salinity tolerance ranges of 83 fish species consumed in the region and aquatic salinity in 27 alternative scenarios of climate change in 2050. The results provide striking evidence that projected aquatic salinization may have an especially negative impact on poor households in the region. The estimates indicate that areas with poor populations that lose species are about six times more prevalent than areas gaining species.
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Publication Impact of Climate Change and Aquatic Salinization on Fish Habitats and Poor Communities in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh and Bangladesh Sundarbans(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03)Fisheries constitute an important source of livelihoods for tens of thousands of poor people in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh living near the UNESCO Heritage Sundarbans mangrove forest, and they supply a significant portion of protein for millions. Among the various threats fisheries in the southwest coastal region and Sundarbans mangrove forest will face because of climate change, adverse impacts from increased aquatic salinity caused by sea level rise have been identified as one of the greatest challenges. This paper focuses on 83 fish species consumed by poor households in the region. Using the salinity tolerance range for each species, 27 alternative scenarios of climate change in 2050 were investigated to assess the possible impacts of climate change and sea level rise on aquatic salinity, fish species habitats, and the poor communities that consume the affected fish species. The results provide striking evidence that projected aquatic salinization may have an especially negative impact on poor households in the region. The estimates indicate that areas with poor populations that lose species are about six times more prevalent than areas gaining species.Publication Impact of Climate Change and Aquatic Salinization on Mangrove Species and Poor Communities in the Bangladesh Sundarbans(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-06)This paper investigates possible impacts of climate change on the poor communities of the Bangladesh Sundarbans via changes in aquatic salinity and mangrove species. The implications for poor communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results indicate that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of the highest value timber of Heretiera fomes. In addition, augmented potential for honey production is likely to increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region.Publication River Salinity and Climate Change : Evidence from Coastal Bangladesh(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-03)In a changing climate, saltwater intrusion is expected to worsen in low-lying coastal areas around the world. Understanding the physical and economic effects of salinity ingress, and planning adaptation, are key to the long-term development of countries for which sea level rise has been identified as a major risk from climate change. This paper presents a study conducted in Bangladesh, which quantifies the prospective relationship between climate-induced changes in sea level, temperature, rainfall, and altered riverine flows from the Himalayas, and the spread and intensity of salinization on river water in the coastal zone for 2050. The research takes into account the projected land subsidence of the Ganges Delta, as well as alternative scenarios of upstream withdrawal of freshwater. The findings indicate that climate change will cause significant changes in river salinity in the southwest coastal area of Bangladesh by 2050. These changes are likely to lead to significant shortages of drinking water in the coastal urban areas, scarcity of water for irrigation for dry-season agriculture, and significant changes in the coastal aquatic ecosystems. Changes in the availability of freshwater fish will likely affect the composition of capture fishery, although the increase in brackish water will enhance opportunities for brackish water aquaculture. Assessment of location-specific economic impacts of the changes in river salinity, identification of suitable adaptation alternatives, and costing of adaptation are high priorities for further analysis.Publication Climate Change, Soil Salinity, and the Economics of High-Yield Rice Production in Coastal Bangladesh(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-12)It is a virtual certainty that sea-level rise will continue throughout the century and beyond 2100 even if greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized in the near future. Understanding the economic impacts of salinity intrusion thus is essential for planning adaptation in low-lying coastal areas around the world. This paper presents a case study in Bangladesh on how climate change leads to the spread of soil salinity and the impact on agricultural production in the coastal region. The analysis is conducted in two stages. The first stage predicts future soil salinity for 69 subdistricts, taking into account climate-induced changes in river salinity, temperature, and rainfall by 2050. The second stage uses econometric analysis to predict the impact of climate-induced increases in soil salinity on the output and price of high-yielding-variety rice. The findings indicate output declines of 15.6 percent in nine subdistricts where soil salinity will exceed 4 deciSiemens per meter before 2050. Without newly developed coping strategies, the predicted changes will produce significant income declines from high-yielding-variety rice production in many areas, including a 10.5 percent loss in Barisal region and a 7.5 percent loss in Chittagong region.Publication Climate Change, Groundwater Salinization and Road Maintenance Costs in Coastal Bangladesh(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-12)The potentially-adverse impact of salinity on paved roads is well-established in the engineering literature. The problem seems destined to grow, as climate-related changes in sea level and riverine flows drive future increases in groundwater salinity. However, data scarcity has prevented systematic analysis for poor countries. This paper assesses the impact of groundwater salinity on road maintenance expenditures in the coastal region of Bangladesh. The assessment draws on new panel measures of salinity from 41 stations in coastal Bangladesh, and road maintenance expenditures, income, road network length, and road surfaces from 20 coastal municipalities. In a model relating maintenance expenditure for paved roads to groundwater salinity, municipal income, and road network length, large and significant effects are found for salinity. The regression model is used to predict the effect of within-sample salinity variation on road maintenance expenditure share, holding municipal income and road length constant at sample mean values. Increasing salinity from its sample minimum to its sample maximum increases the predicted road maintenance expenditure share by 252 percent. The implied welfare impact may also be substantial, particularly for poor households, if diversion of expenditures to road maintenance reduces support for community sanitation, health, and other infrastructure related programs.
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