Publication:
Impact of Climate Change and Aquatic Salinization on Mangrove Species and Poor Communities in the Bangladesh Sundarbans

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.1 MB)
507 downloads
English Text (66.2 KB)
35 downloads
Published
2016-06
ISSN
Date
2016-07-11
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper investigates possible impacts of climate change on the poor communities of the Bangladesh Sundarbans via changes in aquatic salinity and mangrove species. The implications for poor communities are assessed by computing changes in high-value mangrove species for the five sub-districts in the Sundarbans. The results of the impact analysis indicate highly varied patterns of gain and loss across the five sub-districts. Overall, however, the results indicate that salinity-induced mangrove migration will have a strongly regressive impact on the value of timber stocks because of the loss of the highest value timber of Heretiera fomes. In addition, augmented potential for honey production is likely to increase conflicts between humans and wildlife in the region.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Dasgupta, Susmita; Sobhan, Istiak; Wheeler, David. 2016. Impact of Climate Change and Aquatic Salinization on Mangrove Species and Poor Communities in the Bangladesh Sundarbans. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7736. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24653 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
    Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.
  • Publication
    The Evolution of Local Participatory Democracy in Nepal
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-05) Bhusal, Thaneshwar; Breen, Michael G; Rao, Vijayendra
    Nepal is, according to its constitution, among the world’s most decentralized countries, with a long and complex tradition of local-level public participation. This paper traces the evolution of Nepal’s modern participatory institutions, examining the extent to which they are “induced” by external interventions versus being “organically” rooted in indigenous practices. The paper identifies three broad phases: an initial focus on participation in project implementation; a subsequent phase that expanded citizen engagement; and a third phase of citizen empowerment, culminating in the 2015 federal constitution, which granted unprecedented local autonomy. The analysis yields five key findings. First, over the past 50 years, successive reforms have progressively expanded opportunities for citizens to influence local decision-making. Second, these reforms have integrated traditional participatory mechanisms into formal institutions of local government. Third, although central-level initiatives exist, most participatory platforms continue to operate at the local level. Fourth, the federal constitution has created a new landscape of local democracy, embedding autonomy and accountability. Fifth, although they are still valued in many ethnic and territorial communities, traditional participatory practices are gradually disappearing. The paper concludes by offering policy recommendations to help donor agencies and governments strengthen Nepal’s democratic trajectory. It argues that effective interventions should build on Nepal’s deep participatory traditions while recognizing the constitutional reality of far-reaching local autonomy.
  • Publication
    Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Kim, Galileu; Kumar, Tanu; Ramalho, Rita; Russell, Stuart
    State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.
  • Publication
    Closing the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship: Overcoming Challenges in Law and Practice for Female Entrepreneurs
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Behr, Daniela M.; Xi, Yue
    Despite significant strides toward gender equality, women around the world continue to encounter systemic obstacles that hinder their entrepreneurial success. This paper systematically reviews the literature on the barriers female entrepreneurs face and the solutions proposed to overcome these challenges. It discusses institutional factors, financial factors, human capital factors, and social and cultural factors. The literature overview is complemented by a series of stylized facts that illustrate how overcoming some of these existing barriers is correlated with improved women’s entrepreneurship and female labor force participation, drawing on the World Bank’s Women, Business and the Law database as well as the World Bank’s Enterprise Surveys. The findings underscore the need for creating an enabling environment where women can thrive as entrepreneurs.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Impact of Climate Change and Aquatic Salinization on Fish Habitats and Poor Communities in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh and Bangladesh Sundarbans
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) Dasgupta, Susmita; Huq, Mainul; Mustafa, Md. Golam; Sobhan, Md Istiak; Wheeler, David
    Fisheries constitute an important source of livelihoods for tens of thousands of poor people in the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh living near the UNESCO Heritage Sundarbans mangrove forest, and they supply a significant portion of protein for millions. Among the various threats fisheries in the southwest coastal region and Sundarbans mangrove forest will face because of climate change, adverse impacts from increased aquatic salinity caused by sea level rise have been identified as one of the greatest challenges. This paper focuses on 83 fish species consumed by poor households in the region. Using the salinity tolerance range for each species, 27 alternative scenarios of climate change in 2050 were investigated to assess the possible impacts of climate change and sea level rise on aquatic salinity, fish species habitats, and the poor communities that consume the affected fish species. The results provide striking evidence that projected aquatic salinization may have an especially negative impact on poor households in the region. The estimates indicate that areas with poor populations that lose species are about six times more prevalent than areas gaining species.
  • Publication
    Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Adaptation : Nature-based Solutions from the World Bank Portfolio
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008) World Bank
    Climate change is a serious environmental challenge that could undermine the drive for sustainable development. Since the industrial revolution, the mean surface temperature of earth has increased an average of 1degree celsius per century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Furthermore, most of this change has occurred in the past 30 to 40 years, and the rate of increase is accelerating, with significant impacts both at a global scale and at local and regional levels. While it remains important to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reverse climate change in the long run, many of the impacts of climate change are already in evidence. As a result, governments, communities, and civil society are increasingly concerned with anticipating the future effects of climate change while searching for strategies to mitigate, and adapt to, it's current effects.
  • Publication
    Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Adaptation : Nature-Based Solutions from the World Bank Portfolio
    (Washington, DC, 2008-09) World Bank
    Climate change is a serious environmental challenge that could undermine the drive for sustainable development. Since the industrial revolution, the mean surface temperature of earth has increased an average of 1degree celsius per century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Furthermore, most of this change has occurred in the past 30 to 40 years, and the rate of increase is accelerating, with significant impacts both at a global scale and at local and regional levels. While it remains important to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reverse climate change in the long run, many of the impacts of climate change are already in evidence. As a result, governments, communities, and civil society are increasingly concerned with anticipating the future effects of climate change while searching for strategies to mitigate, and adapt to, it's current effects.
  • Publication
    Sri Lanka - Valuation of Environmental Services in Sri Lanka : A Case Study of Soil and Watershed Benefits in the Southern Province
    (Washington, DC, 2010-06) World Bank
    This 2010 report, Valuation of Environmental Services in Sri Lanka : A Case Study of Soil and Watershed Benefits in the Southern Province, uses valuation tools to evaluate environmental services to allow policymakers to efficiently address sustainable economic development and environment protection within the country s economic policy. The Government of Sri Lanka has committed to a 10-year development framework of increased growth and policymakers in the Southern Province have embarked on an ambitious program of improved roads and other large infrastructure projects. Watershed management is perhaps the most significant issue since they supply such a wide variety of environmental services to the population and environment. Due to the numerous beneficial flows it is difficult to visualize any development that would not affect any of these values to some degree.
  • Publication
    Environment Matters at the World Bank, 2009 Annual Review : Banking on Biodiversity
    (World Bank, 2010) World Bank
    This issue of environment matters celebrates the 2010 international year of biodiversity and describes some of the challenges and opportunities in protecting biodiversity for the benefit of humankind. From the world's highest mountain ranges to the lowland plains, and from the great oceans and coastal wetlands to agricultural landscapes, nations and communities rely on the bounty and services of natural ecosystems. Biological resources and the goods and ecosystem services they provide underpin every aspect of human life and livelihoods, from food and water security to general well-being and spiritual fulfillment. In many countries, it is the poorest of the poor who are most dependent on these benefits. Yet, as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment showed, biodiversity is under severe threat, as ecosystems are being lost and degraded more rapidly and extensively than at any comparable period in our history. Habitat loss and fragmentation, overexploitation of resources, pollution, invasive alien species, and, increasingly, climate change will all lead to further biodiversity loss. One of the key challenges of the coming decades will be how to reconcile biodiversity conservation and development if we are to achieve the twin goals of poverty alleviation and a sustainable future for all. The World Bank is already a major global funder of biodiversity initiatives, including support to more than 624 projects in over 122 countries during the last 20 years. It is actively supporting national actions to safeguard biodiversity and improve natural resource management. Many of these projects have supported globally important protected areas, but efforts have also been made to mainstream biodiversity conservation in the production landscape. As well as national efforts, the Bank has supported numerous partnerships with international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to promote global and regional biodiversity initiatives.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Building Resilience for Sustainable Development of the Sundarbans : Strategy Report
    (Washington, DC, 2014) World Bank
    Recognizing the importance and uniqueness of the Sundarbans, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) declared the Indian portion of the forest a World Heritage Site in 1987, and the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Program has included the Sundarbans Biosphere Reserve in the Global Network of Island and Coastal Biosphere Reserves Contributing to Action on Climate Change and Sustainable Development. While the Sundarbans region is celebrated for its ecological attributes, it is a difficult place to live in. The inhabited portions of India s Sundarbans are characterized by severe poverty, which both contributes to and arises from the vulnerability of the population to a growing range of natural hazards. Resilience is characterized by a capacity to adapt to changing conditions and persistent stresses by responding effectively. However, the resilience of those residing in the Sundarbans has been undermined by a long series of persistent pressures. Sea level rise, salinization of soil and water, cyclonic storms and flooding have combined over the past century to render this one of the most hazardous areas in the Indian subcontinent.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Biodiversity, Climate Change, and Adaptation : Nature-Based Solutions from the World Bank Portfolio
    (Washington, DC, 2008-09) World Bank
    Climate change is a serious environmental challenge that could undermine the drive for sustainable development. Since the industrial revolution, the mean surface temperature of earth has increased an average of 1degree celsius per century due to the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Furthermore, most of this change has occurred in the past 30 to 40 years, and the rate of increase is accelerating, with significant impacts both at a global scale and at local and regional levels. While it remains important to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and reverse climate change in the long run, many of the impacts of climate change are already in evidence. As a result, governments, communities, and civil society are increasingly concerned with anticipating the future effects of climate change while searching for strategies to mitigate, and adapt to, it's current effects.
  • Publication
    Building Climate Resilience
    (World Bank, Entebbe, 2015-05-01) World Bank Group
    Climate change is a critical issue facing the countries of the Nile basin. While individual weather events are difficult to attribute to climate change, their sum is already having adverse effects on socioeconomic conditions across the region. While climate change was not an overt focus of the Nile basin initiative’s (NBI’s) mandate when it was launched in 1999, it has emerged as a key challenge for countries of the Nile to take seriously. Understanding variability in river flows is one of the first steps in understanding climate change impacts and planning how to respond to them. Developing this understanding and getting it into use has been at the heart of the NBI’s technical work.
  • Publication
    Doing Business Economy Profile 2016
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10) World Bank Group
    This economy profile for Doing Business 2016 presents the 11 Doing Business indicators for Guyana. To allow for useful comparison, the profile also provides data for other selected economies (comparator economies) for each indicator. Doing Business 2016 is the 13th edition in a series of annual reports measuring the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business; for 2015 Guyana ranks 137. A high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe and over time. Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and labor market regulation. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2015 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period from January to December 2014).