Publication: The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms in Honduras: Evidence from Monthly Tax Returns
Loading...
Date
2021-01
ISSN
Published
2021-01
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
We measure the impact of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) crisis and the resulting lockdown on formal firms in Honduras, using monthly value-added tax records for January 2018 to August 2020. Firms' revenue fell by 26 percent, or 342.6 billion lempiras (USD 14.3 billion), in real terms between March and August 2020 and the same period in 2019. Sectors subject to stricter containment measures experienced larger revenue losses. The service sector was the most severely affected, experiencing a 45 percent revenue loss. Larger firms experienced smaller revenue losses than smaller firms, even when accounting for the sectoral composition of firm-size groups. A non-negligible number of firms remained shut down until the end of available data in August 2020.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Bachas, Pierre; Brockmeyer, Anne; Semelet, Camille. 2021. The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms in Honduras: Evidence from Monthly Tax Returns. MTI Practice Notes;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35093 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication The Impact of COVID-19 on Formal Firms(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)How is the COVID-19 pandemic affecting firm profits and tax payments in developing countries? This paper uses administrative corporate tax records from 10 low- and middle-income countries around the world to provide plausible estimates. Modeling the lockdown-triggered revenue shock with simple and transparent assumptions, the analysis predicts that less than half of all firms will remain profitable by the end of 2020, about 5-10 percent of the formal aggregate annual payroll will be lost, and firm exit rates will double. As a result, it is expected that tax revenue remitted by the corporate sector will fall by at least 1.5 percent of baseline gross domestic product. Differences in sectoral composition and firms' cost structures generate heterogeneity in the results across countries: wage subsidies are less effective in low-income countries and government revenue losses are smaller.Publication Effective Tax Rates and Firm Size(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-02)This paper provides novel evidence on the relationship between firm size and effective corporate tax rates, using full-population administrative tax data from 13 countries. In all countries, small firms face lower effective corporate tax rates than mid-sized firms due to reduced statutory tax rates and a higher propensity to register losses. In most countries, effective corporate tax rates fall for the largest firms due to the take-up of tax incentives. As a result, a third of the top 1 percent of firms face effective corporate tax rates below the global minimum tax of 15 percent. The minimum tax could raise corporate tax revenue by 27 percent in the median sample country.Publication The Firm-Level Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10-28)The economic impact of the second wave of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic in Myanmar has been significantly more severe on businesses than the first wave, according to the World Bank’s firm-level survey. The latest survey, the fourth in a series of eight surveys planned, was administered between September 11, 2020 and October 1, 2020, and covered a nationally representative sample of five hundred firms. The fourth round of the survey overlaps with the beginning of the second-wave of Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases and re-introduction of stay-at-home orders that started initially in Rakhine in late August and then in Yangon in early September. This note provides a snapshot of how the firms' outcomes and response to the pandemic have changed between the months of September and October 2020.Publication How COVID-19 is Affecting Firms in Indonesia(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-20)This brief presents findings from the first round of a survey of 850 firms in Indonesia. The survey was implemented through phone interviews and found that Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has had pronounced effects on Indonesia’s private sector. To help the private sector during this crisis, the government needs to improve the effectiveness of its support through better communication and easier access to support programs.Publication Unmasking the Impact of COVID-19 on Businesses(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the short-term impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on businesses worldwide with a focus on developing countries. The results are based on a novel data set collected by the World Bank Group and several partner institutions in 51 countries covering more than 100,000 businesses. The paper provides several stylized facts. First, the COVID-19 shock has been severe and widespread across firms, with persistent negative impact on sales. Second, the employment adjustment has operated mostly along the intensive margin (that is leave of absence and reduction in hours), with a small share of firms laying off workers. Third, smaller firms are disproportionately facing greater financial constraints. Fourth, firms are increasingly relying on digital solutions as a response to the shock. Fifth, there is great uncertainty about the future, especially among firms that have experienced a larger drop in sales, which is associated with job losses. These findings provide a better understanding of the magnitude and distribution of the shock, the main channels affecting businesses, and how firms are adjusting. The paper concludes by discussing some avenues for future research.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.