Publication: Malawi Economic Monitor, October 2015: Adjusting in Turbulent Times
Loading...
Date
2015-10
ISSN
Published
2015-10
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The Malawi economic monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavors to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. The focus of the special topic is on the effectiveness of public spending on primary education and the means by which this can be improved. With more than half of Malawi’s population under the age of 18, the country faces significant challenges in its efforts to provide quality education to a growing population of students. Malawi also faces ongoing fiscal pressures, so there is a need to find ways to maximize the development impact within the limits of the finite resources available for investment in education. The MEM consists of two parts: part one presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part two focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi’s development prospects.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Asim, Salman; Record, Richard; Chilima, Efrem; Kandoole, Priscilla; Kalemba, Sunganani. 2015. Malawi Economic Monitor, October 2015: Adjusting in Turbulent Times. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/22895 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, May 2016(World Bank, Lilongwe, Malawi, 2016-05)This report consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects. This report focuses on agricultural risk management. Malawi is now set to suffer a second year of poor harvests due to the effects of a drought that is sweeping Southern Africa. This drought has had a serious impact both on the economy and on food security, requiring a major humanitarian response. The current situation underscores Malawi's serious need to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector and to develop a better system of risk management. With the country expected to continue to face climate-induced shocks into the future, it is vital that the Government considers how best to mitigate the impact of such shocks. In 2015 Malawi recorded a GDP growth rate of just 2.8 percent, with this low rate the result of both adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic instability. Flooding in southern districts followed by a countrywide drought resulted in a contraction in agricultural production. Maize, the key crop in terms of food security, recorded a 30.2 percent year-on-year drop in production. As a result, an estimated 2.8 million people (17 percent of the population) were unable to meet their 2015/16 food requirements.Publication Africa's Pulse, April 2014 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future(Washington, DC, 2014-04)This Africa's pulse newsletter includes the following The economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa remains robust, but growth is vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows, the frequency and strength of growth spurts have increased, and growth has shifted the structure of African economies in favor of the resources and services sectors.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Papua New Guinea(Washington, DC, 2010-12)At the request of the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), a mission comprised of Jeff Chelsky (PRMVP, mission lead), Tomas Magnusson (BDM, consultant), Greg Horman (BDM, consultant) and Tim Bulman (EAP, country economist), visited Port Moresby between November 22nd and December 3rd to undertake a DeMPA exercise. The team met with officials from the Department of Treasury, Bank of Papua New Guinea, Department of Finance, Department of National Planning and Monitoring, State Solicitor's Office, Auditor General's Office, Independent Public Business Corporation (IPBC), AUSAid, Asian Development Bank, ANZ Bank, Nambawan Super, and Bank South Pacific (BSP). This report reflects comments received from the PNG authorities in February 2011. The mission found that, in a number of areas, PNG meets or exceeds minimum DeMPA requirements. Strengths include the quality of the debt management strategy, the framework for domestic debt issuance, coordination with monetary policy, and the legal framework (except for the issuance of T-bills for which the law contains no explicit borrowing purposes). Looking ahead, the Government has expressed its intention, as part of the 2011 budget and its updated 2011 Medium-term Debt Management Strategy, to remove the nominal cap on external debt, replacing it with a cap of 30 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. The commitment to allocate a portion of excess government revenue to debt reduction will only apply when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 30 percent of GDP. At the same time, the Government has reiterated its commitment to reducing the exchange rate risks to its debt portfolio by targeting 40 percent of total debt over the medium term for the external portion of the portfolio. Interest rate risk will be reduced through continued efforts to extend the maturity of domestic debt.Publication Crisis Preparedness and Debt Management in Low Income Countries : Strengthening Institutions and Policy Frameworks(2010-07-01)The magnitude of the public liabilities incurred as a result of the unprecedented government action in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, and the consequences of exiting from the projected high debt scenario, have become a major source of concern about a future sovereign debt crisis. As Low-Income Countries (LICs) face unique challenges in debt management (DeM) due to their more limited financing sources and higher capacity constraints, their ability to successfully manage their public debt burdens effectively through a crisis of this magnitude is far from assured. Therefore, the challenges of the last two years will require a re-evaluation of existing DeM strategies in LICs, focusing on the identification of institutional weaknesses and the assessment and mitigation of potential risk. It is in this context that this paper examines the application of two global public goods in LICs: the Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) and the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) tools. The results of the application of these tools from 2007-2009 provide valuable information to policymakers and other stakeholders on the development of sound public DeM practices and analytical capacity, with the goal of strengthening the public balance sheet and reducing vulnerability to financial crises.Publication Pakistan Development Update, April 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04)The Pakistani economy faced four major domestic shocks as of April 2015: (i) a political sit-in by opposition parties in Islamabad that lasted between August and December and raised significant political uncertainty; (ii) the September floods in Punjab that affected agricultural crops; (iii) the postponed sale of Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) equity shares in November that reduced its expected privatization proceeds and foreign direct inflows (FDI); and (iv) the terrorist attack in a school in Peshawar that heightened security concerns. However, supported by a favorable slump in international oil prices, and steady implementation of structural reforms by the government, the economy is improving. Preliminary data for the first half of FY15 show growth picking up, driven mainly by strong performance in the agriculture and services sectors. Despite the floods last year, growth improved in the cotton, wheat, and rice crops. The services sector was boosted by transport, storage, communications, finance, and insurance. On the demand side, growth continues to be driven by private consumption partly fuelled by high remittance inflows. Credit to the private sector continued to grow, but slightly less rapidly than last year: as a percentage of GDP, it fell to 13.4 percent in January 2015 compared with 14.1 percent in January 2014. Pakistan is on track to meet a fiscal deficit target of 4.8 percent of GDP in FY15. The newly elected government appears to be committed to fiscal discipline and has made fiscal consolidation the cornerstone of its economic program supported by the IMF, the World Bank and other donors. At present, Pakistan is facing three sources of risk: first is the prospect of an early reversal of the fall in oil prices. Second is the repeat of political events of the first half that keep FDI flows and private investment low; and also affects foreign reserves, privatization program and growth prospects. An uncertain political environment undermines investor confidence and depresses economic activity. Third is the continuation of a troubled domestic energy sector that continues to endure a long-due complex inheritance on its circular debt. Given past trends and the current growth rate, poverty is expected to continue to fall and shared prosperity to improve in this and the next fiscal year. However, a large mass of the population is clustered around the official poverty line, so that small improvements in household real consumption can translate into substantial movement in poverty in either direction.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Argentina Country Climate and Development Report(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11)The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication World Development Report 2006(Washington, DC, 2005)This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022(Washington, DC, 2022-11)The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.