Publication: Malawi Economic Monitor, May 2016: Absorbing Shocks, Building Resilience
Loading...
Published
2016-05
ISSN
Date
2016-06-22
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report consists of two parts: Part 1 presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part 2 focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi's development prospects. This report focuses on agricultural risk management. Malawi is now set to suffer a second year of poor harvests due to the effects of a drought that is sweeping Southern Africa. This drought has had a serious impact both on the economy and on food security, requiring a major humanitarian response. The current situation underscores Malawi's serious need to improve the resilience of the agricultural sector and to develop a better system of risk management. With the country expected to continue to face climate-induced shocks into the future, it is vital that the Government considers how best to mitigate the impact of such shocks. In 2015 Malawi recorded a GDP growth rate of just 2.8 percent, with this low rate the result of both adverse weather conditions and macroeconomic instability. Flooding in southern districts followed by a countrywide drought resulted in a contraction in agricultural production. Maize, the key crop in terms of food security, recorded a 30.2 percent year-on-year drop in production. As a result, an estimated 2.8 million people (17 percent of the population) were unable to meet their 2015/16 food requirements.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2016. Malawi Economic Monitor, May 2016: Absorbing Shocks, Building Resilience. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/24587 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Malawi Economic Monitor, October 2015(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10)The Malawi economic monitor (MEM) provides an analysis of economic and structural development issues in Malawi. The aim of the publication is to foster better informed policy analysis and debate regarding the key challenges that Malawi faces in its endeavors to achieve high rates of stable, inclusive, and sustainable economic growth. The focus of the special topic is on the effectiveness of public spending on primary education and the means by which this can be improved. With more than half of Malawi’s population under the age of 18, the country faces significant challenges in its efforts to provide quality education to a growing population of students. Malawi also faces ongoing fiscal pressures, so there is a need to find ways to maximize the development impact within the limits of the finite resources available for investment in education. The MEM consists of two parts: part one presents a review of recent economic developments and a macroeconomic outlook. Part two focuses in greater depth on a special, selected topic relevant to Malawi’s development prospects.Publication Rwanda Economic Update, No. 7 : Managing Uncertainty for Growth and Poverty Reduction(Kigali, Rwanda, 2015-02)The Rwanda Economic Update reports on and synthesizes recent economic developments and places them in a medium-term and global context. It analyzes the implications of these developments and policies for the outlook for Rwanda s economy. Rwanda s economic growth recovered in the first three quarters of 2014. The economy grew 7.1 percent. Faster GDP growth reflected higher growth of the services sector, at 9.1 percent, up from 5.4 percent in 2013, when the economy suffered from the lagged impact of the 2012 aid shortfall. The first section on macroeconomic issues of this edition of the Rwanda Economic Update examines two key questions: What led to the growth recovery in the first three quarters of 2014, and what are growth prospects for 2014, 2015, and 2016? The growth recovery mainly reflected increased government expenditure, which boosted domestic demand such as private consumption and investment. The expansion of domestic demand was partially offset by lower external demand for Rwanda s traditional commodities. Higher government expenditure contributed to growth recovery in the services sector through government consumption of private services. Inflation declined throughout 2014, reflecting lower growth in import prices. The recent decline in oil prices is expected to contribute not only to lower inflation but also to more stable exchange rate, an improved balance of payments, and smaller electricity subsidies. The special focus section of this report identifies and quantifies risks in the agriculture sector, with targeted interventions that complement the lessons learned under PSTA 2/CAADP 1 to more effectively manage these risks and to achieve further growth in the agriculture sector.Publication Africa's Pulse, April 2014 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future(Washington, DC, 2014-04)This Africa's pulse newsletter includes the following The economic outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa remains robust, but growth is vulnerable to lower commodity prices and a slowdown in capital flows, the frequency and strength of growth spurts have increased, and growth has shifted the structure of African economies in favor of the resources and services sectors.Publication Taking Stock, December 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-12)The global economy is showing signs of recovery, but at an uneven pace; global growth is expected to rise modestly to 2.6 percent in 2014, and an average 3.3 percent in 2015-17. The gradual strengthening of activity in the Euro Area and especially the US will boost demand for exports from developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP), helping the region sustain its growth performance. There are early signs of firming up of economic recovery in Vietnam. GDP growth picked up to a relatively brisk 6.2 percent (y-o-y) in the third quarter of 2014, contributing to an overall growth rate of 5.6 percent for the first nine months of the year. Credit growth continues to come in below target, hampering the State Bank of Vietnam's efforts to carry out credit expansion to support economic growth. The Government has taken some important measures in 2014 to improve business conditions, which are expected to bear fruit from 2015 onward. The Government issued Resolution 19 (March 18, 2014), which prioritizes shortening the time for processing and completion of administrative procedures, reducing administrative costs, and strengthening transparency and accountability of state administrative agencies. The Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) provides a comprehensive framework to identify financial system vulnerabilities and develop appropriate policy responses. Recognizing its importance, in July 2012 the Government of Vietnam invited the World Bank and the IMF to initiate an FSAP for Vietnam. In recent years the Vietnamese economy had shown signs of corporate and financial distress, and slowdown in GDP growth. In response to this, the government announced a comprehensive reform program designed to address the problems faced by the financial and corporate sectors. The FSAP provides a broad set of policy recommendations that can be used to operationalize the SEDP and the banking restructuring program. The recommendations include recapitalization plans, the workout of NPLs, regulatory and other reforms, and the temporary extension of the safety net.Publication Small States : Performance in Public Debt Management(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-02)This paper analyzes the status of public debt management performance in 17 small states through the findings of the Debt Management Performance Assessment reports. Empirical evidence indicates that the higher the quality of a country's policies and institutions, the better is its capacity to carry debt and withstand exogenous shocks. Borrowing for productive purposes can be an important element in boosting growth of gross domestic product but, conversely, excessive borrowing or poorly structured debt in terms of maturity, currency, or interest rate composition can quickly offset the positive impact, deter new foreign and domestic investment, compromise reform programs, depress growth of gross domestic product, exacerbate the challenge of meeting debt service obligations, and may induce or propagate economic crises. Arguments in favor of sound debt management are especially compelling for small states that must mitigate the particular risks to which their economies are exposed. Against this backdrop, the paper identifies aspects of debt management where small states do relatively well and those where they perform poorly, relative to other developing countries, and examines the underlying factors at play. It elaborates on some of the successful measures taken by small states to enhance debt management performance and considers how these may be applied more broadly in other small states. The paper offers a number of practical suggestions to strengthen debt management performance.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication School Construction Strategies for Universal Primary Education in Africa : Should Communities Be Empowered to Build their Schools?(World Bank, 2009)This book examines the scope of the infrastructure challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa and the constraints to scaling up at an affordable cost. It assesses the experiences of African countries with school planning, school facility designs, construction technologies, and construction management over the past thirty years, and draws lessons on promising approaches to enable African countries to scale up the facilities required to achieve the Education for All (EFA) goals and Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) of complete quality primary education for all children at the lowest marginal cost. The book is organized along the following lines. Chapter one reviews the nature and scope of the primary school infrastructure challenges. Chapter two reviews the experience of African countries with school planning and resource allocation norms and how they have affected the volume, functionality, and distribution of primary school facilities. Chapters three, four, and five examine the impact of construction technology and approaches to construction management on the cost of school infrastructure and the ability to scale up. Chapter six delves more deeply into how to set up one of the most cost- effective approaches to school provision the community-based approach. Chapter seven looks at maintenance issues. Chapter eight deals with corruption and chapter nine with donors. Chapter ten provides an estimate of the infrastructure cost of the EFA challenge and recommendation for countries and donors to improve the efficiency of the resources spent for school construction.Publication Urban Mobility in Eastern Poland(Washington, DC, 2015-05-12)In the second half of 2013, the World Bank secured grant funding from the Korea Green Growth Partnership for analytical support and technical assistance related to sustainable urban transport systems in select cities in Eastern Poland. Established in 2011, the Korea Green Growth Partnership strengthens cooperation between the Government of Korea and the World Bank Group to help countries achieve sustainable and inclusive development by developing and sharing practical knowledge around innovative green growth solutions. The objective of the first phase of this technical assistance involved assessing the urban transport sector in the selected cities, Bialystok, Lublin, Olsztyn, and Rzeszow, with a primary focus on public transportation and the aim of identifying areas for improvement. The second phase of this technical assistance will focus on areas identified in the first phase, subject to agreement from the participating cities, as well as capacity building activities. This report provides a set of recommendations related to the legal and institutional framework for urban transport in Poland; summarizes the assessment of urban mobility for Bialystok, Lublin, Olsztyn, and Rzeszow; and assesses the framework for inter-municipal coordination in Poland.Publication Economic Growth in Guinea and How to Accelerate It(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-10)This paper addresses two main questions: (1) What are the binding constraints to Guinea's economic growth? and (2) What would it take to accelerate growth in the country? Using the growth diagnostic approach, the paper finds three binding constraints to growth: (i) lack of good infrastructure (roads and electricity), (ii) low access to finance, and (iii) poor governance. Simulation results highlight the need for total factor productivity growth for higher gross domestic product growth rates over the medium term. Specifically, Guinea needs 1 to 2 percent total factor productivity growth to maintain 5 to 7 percent gross domestic product growth, with a 16 to 21 percent investment rate by 2020. The lower bound of the range of the investment rate is similar to Guinea's experience in the past decade; the upper bound is slightly superior to the country's recent performance. The paper discusses some of the policy options to consider to address the key binding constraints to economic growth as well as to overcome the challenge of increasing total factor productivity growth in Guinea.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Drivers and Obstacles to Banking SMEs : The Role of Competition and the Institutional Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2008-12)This paper studies the factors banks perceive as drivers and obstacles to financing small and medium enterprises (SMEs), focusing on the role of competition and the institutional framework. Using a survey of banks in Argentina and Chile, the paper shows that, despite alleged differences in the countries' environments regarding rules, regulations, and ease of doing business, SMEs have become a strategic segment for most banks in both countries. In particular, banks have begun to target SMEs due to the significant competition in the corporate and retail sectors. They perceive the SMEs market as highly profitable, large, and with good prospects. Moreover, banks are developing coping mechanisms to overcome the particular institutional obstacles present in each country and to compete for SMEs. Banks' interest in SMEs is not based on government programs, yet policy action might help reduce the cost of providing financing, especially long-term lending.