Publication:
Mining and Economic Development: Did China's WTO Accession Affect African Local Economic Development?

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (793.04 KB)
438 downloads
English Text (124.19 KB)
28 downloads
Published
2016-12
ISSN
Date
2017-01-04
Editor(s)
Abstract
This paper investigates China's influence on local economic development in 37 African countries between 1997 and 2007. The analysis compares the average changes in economic growth, migration, spatial inequality, and welfare for mineral-rich districts, pre- and post-accession, to the corresponding changes in districts without any mineral endowment. Using this exogenous variation, the paper shows that over 2002-07, mining activities in response to the global commodity price boom increased welfare as measured by spatial Sen Index but were insignificant for local economic growth, migration, and spatial inequality. The findings suggest that policy needs to do more to improve the local benefits of positive external shocks (such as China's World Trade Organization accession): it is not enough to assume, given Africa's high spatial inequality, that local economies will automatically benefit from higher national growth.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Addison, Tony; Boly, Amadou; Mveyange, Anthony. 2016. Mining and Economic Development: Did China's WTO Accession Affect African Local Economic Development?. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 7906. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/25805 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05) Foster, Elizabeth; Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell; Lara Ibarra, Gabriel; Lakner, Christoph; Tettah-Baah, Samuel
    Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Gender Gaps in the Performance of Small Firms: Evidence from Urban Peru
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23) Celiku, Bledi; Ubfal, Diego; Valdivia, Martin
    This paper estimates the gender gap in the performance of firms in Peru using representative data on both formal and informal firms. On average, informal female-led firms have lower sales, labor productivity, and profits compared to their male-led counterparts, with differences more pronounced when controlling for observable determinants of firm performance. However, gender gaps are only significant at the bottom of the performance distribution of informal firms, and these gaps disappear at the top of the distribution of informal firms and for formal firms. Possible explanations for the performance gaps at the bottom of the distribution include the higher likelihood of small, female-led firms being home-based, which is linked to lower profits, and their concentration in less profitable sectors. The paper provides suggestive evidence that household responsibilities play a key role in explaining the gender gap in firm performance among informal firms. Therefore, policies that promote access to care services or foster a more equal distribution of household activities may reduce gender productivity gaps and allow for a more efficient allocation of resources.
  • Publication
    The Exposure of Workers to Artificial Intelligence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-05) Demombynes, Gabriel; Langbein, Jörg; Weber, Michael
    Research on the labor market implications of artificial intelligence has focused principally on high-income countries. This paper analyzes this issue using microdata from a large set of low- and middle-income countries, applying a measure of potential artificial intelligence occupational exposure to a harmonized set of labor force surveys for 25 countries, covering a population of 3.5 billion people. The approach advances work by using harmonized microdata at the level of individual workers, which allows for a multivariate analysis of factors associated with exposure. Additionally, unlike earlier papers, the paper uses highly detailed (4 digit) occupation codes, which provide a more reliable mapping of artificial intelligence exposure to occupation. Results within countries, show that artificial intelligence exposure is higher for women, urban workers, and those with higher education. Exposure decreases by country income level, with high exposure for just 12 percent of workers in low-income countries and 15 percent of workers in lower-middle-income countries. Furthermore, lack of access to electricity limits effective exposure in low-income countries. These results suggest that for developing countries, and in particular low-income countries, the labor market impacts of artificial intelligence will be more limited than in high-income countries. While greater exposure to artificial intelligence indicates larger potential for future changes in certain occupations, it does not equate to job loss, as it could result in augmentation of worker productivity, automation of some tasks, or both.
  • Publication
    Geopolitical Risks and Trade
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23) Mulabdic, Alen; Yotov, Yoto V.
    This paper studies the impact of geopolitical risks on international trade, using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and an empirical gravity model. The impact of spikes in geopolitical risk on trade is negative, strong, and heterogeneous across sectors. The findings show that increases in geopolitical risk reduce trade by about 30 to 40 percent. These effects are equivalent to an increase of global tariffs of up to 14 percent. Services trade is most vulnerable to geopolitical risks, followed by agriculture, and the impact on manufacturing trade is moderate. These negative effects are partially mitigated by cultural and geographic proximity, as well as by the presence of trade agreements.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    The Impact of Mining on Spatial Inequality Recent Evidence from Africa
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02) Addison, Tony; Boly, Amadou; Mveyange, Anthony
    This paper investigates the relationship between mining and spatial inequality in Africa during 2001-12. The identification strategy is based on a unilateral causation between mining and district inequality. The findings show that when minerals are aggregated, mining increases district inequality. But an analysis of individual minerals shows that mining affects district inequality positively and negatively, suggesting that mineral wealth can be a curse and a blessing. Further analysis suggests that these results largely depend on whether mining is active or closed, the scale of mining operations, the value of minerals extracted, and the nature of mining activities -- important dimensions for shaping mining policies aimed at bolstering socioeconomic development in Africa.
  • Publication
    The Contribution of the Mining Sector to Socioeconomic and Human Development
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04) Moreira, Susana; McMahon, Gary
    Many low and middle-income mineral-rich countries have experienced strong growth for a decade or longer, propelled by a rapid expansion of their mineral exports and a rise in prices of these commodities. This sustained strong economic performance goes against the accepted wisdom that even though the mining sector, like other extractive industries, can generate foreign exchange and fiscal revenues, it contributes little to sustained economic growth and, by extension, human development. Through the presentation of trends and patterns of various indicators, this paper shows that in addition to economic growth, countries rich in minerals other than oil have experienced significant improvements in their human development index (HDI) scores that are on average better than those experienced by countries without minerals. In a sample of five low and middle-income countries with relatively long histories of mining, benefits came from foreign direct investment (FDI), export revenues, and fiscal revenues. The overall impact of the mining sector was much stronger if there were infrastructure benefits and strong linkages to other industries, especially through domestic procurement. Contrary to the notion that there are no jobs in mining, in this small sample, employment related to the mining sector was very high in countries where linkages were strong, even before the multiplier and fiscal expenditure impacts were accounted for. Cooperation between the public and private sectors seemed essential to increasing such linkages. In addition, mining firms often made substantial contributions to local and regional development, at times due to legal requirements but often not. All five countries have either relatively high HDIs (compared with neighboring countries) or strongly improving HDIs.
  • Publication
    Mining Industry as a Source of Economic Growth in Kyrgyzstan
    (World Bank, Bishkek, 2005) Bogdetsky, Valentine; Ibraev, Karybek; Abdyrakhmanova, Jyldyz
    The study 'Mining as a source of economic growth in Kyrgyzstan' is developed by the project implementation unit of the World Bank for 'building capacity in governance and revenues streams management for mining and natural resources'. This study is aimed at defining a role for the mining industry in the country and evaluating its possible impacts on economic development in the future. Mineral resources development is an essential condition for successful economic development of Kyrgyz Republic. In fact, it is the only possible way to raise social welfare in remote high mountainous regions. At the present time, some recovery of investment activities in mining industry has been observed. However, the lack of long-term capital investments in mining and geological exploration projects is still acutely felt. International experts have noted more than once that in spite of the significant size of territory and good level of geological study, the minerals potential of the country remains underdeveloped. At present, its output is 25.578 billion som or 48 percent of all the industrial production. Its share in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 10.2 percent, in export volume-41.1 percent and tax revenues - 11 percent. The royalty on subsoil use yields budget revenues of 568.0 million som per year. The mining industry involves more than 15 thousand workers. Monthly average wage is about 10 600 som about four times higher than the average for Kyrgyzstan, which was 2240.3 som in 2004. The study showed that creation of one job in mining industry would lead to creation of 1.6 jobs in related industries that provide supply of goods and services for mining. The prognosis of mining sector development to 2020 is made on the basis of the results of the study of data related to: production volume, direct and indirect employment, tax revenues to state budget. The implementation of recommended reforms will require significant efforts by the Government. However, they will be repaid by the enhancement of mining industry, which will become a substantial source of economic growth in Kyrgyzstan.
  • Publication
    Kosovo - Unlocking Growth Potential : Strategies, Policies, Actions - A Country Economic Memorandum
    (World Bank, 2010-04-29) World Bank
    Kosovo's economic growth in the past decade has been solid, yet, with a gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of 1,760, the country remains one of the poorest in Europe. The end of the conflict, output was growing at double-digit rates, driven by the donor-funded reconstruction efforts. Since 2005, annual growth has decelerated to below 5 percent. However, the other countries in Southeast Europe have been growing faster, so the income gap has widened. Kosovo's economy would need to more than double its growth rate to 10 percent per annum over the next decade to reach Albania's income level (assuming Albania's economy continues to grow at 5.5 percent annually over this period). To reach Montenegro's current GDP per capita level of about 5,700, the economy would have to grow at 12 percent per annum for an entire decade. At the same time, Kosovo has the weakest employment track record in Europe: the unemployment rate has reached 48 percent and the employment rate is extremely low (26 percent). Consequently, poverty remains persistent and widespread (though shallow) with 45 percent of the population estimated to consume less than the national poverty line, while 17 percent are extremely poor. Much of the economic progress in the recent period has been based on donor aid and remittances, which cannot be the foundation of a sustainable economic strategy. Kosovo has the potential to shift toward faster, private sector led growth. Kosovo's products have free market access to the European Union (EU) and Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) countries, so exports could become an important pillar of growth. Unleashing that potential will involve bringing on line three production factors that are now sitting partially idle: labor, land, and energy and minerals. The encouraging news is that unleashing this potential is within the country's own grasp, because most of the current obstacles are of a policy nature. However, simultaneous action will be required on several policy fronts.
  • Publication
    Managing Resource-Induced Volatility in Papua New Guinea
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2010-03-03) Ollero, Tony; Izvorski, Ivailo
    This report reviews developments in Papua New Guinea (PNG) since independence, and looks at the issues relevant for saving and managing natural resources and resource induced volatility. These issues could serve as a useful basis for discussion of options the government of PNG could pursue as it emerges from the economic and financial crisis and looks forward to the start of operation of the PNG liquified natural gas (LNG) project. Although the wealth of international experience suggests several key areas for the attention of the authorities, many issues can be addressed only on the basis of detailed projections about future resource flows and investment outlays. Whether the rules will prove effective will also depend on other steps to enhance the fiscal framework. The World Bank can provide more detailed analysis, expertise and recommendations should such data become available.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Morocco Economic Update, Winter 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-03) World Bank
    Despite the drought causing a modest deceleration of overall GDP growth to 3.2 percent, the Moroccan economy has exhibited some encouraging trends in 2024. Non-agricultural growth has accelerated to an estimated 3.8 percent, driven by a revitalized industrial sector and a rebound in gross capital formation. Inflation has dropped below 1 percent, allowing Bank al-Maghrib to begin easing its monetary policy. While rural labor markets remain depressed, the economy has added close to 162,000 jobs in urban areas. Morocco’s external position remains strong overall, with a moderate current account deficit largely financed by growing foreign direct investment inflows, underpinned by solid investor confidence indicators. Despite significant spending pressures, the debt-to-GDP ratio is slowly declining.
  • Publication
    World Development Report 2006
    (Washington, DC, 2005) World Bank
    This year’s Word Development Report (WDR), the twenty-eighth, looks at the role of equity in the development process. It defines equity in terms of two basic principles. The first is equal opportunities: that a person’s chances in life should be determined by his or her talents and efforts, rather than by pre-determined circumstances such as race, gender, social or family background. The second principle is the avoidance of extreme deprivation in outcomes, particularly in health, education and consumption levels. This principle thus includes the objective of poverty reduction. The report’s main message is that, in the long run, the pursuit of equity and the pursuit of economic prosperity are complementary. In addition to detailed chapters exploring these and related issues, the Report contains selected data from the World Development Indicators 2005‹an appendix of economic and social data for over 200 countries. This Report offers practical insights for policymakers, executives, scholars, and all those with an interest in economic development.
  • Publication
    Argentina Country Climate and Development Report
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank Group
    The Argentina Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) explores opportunities and identifies trade-offs for aligning Argentina’s growth and poverty reduction policies with its commitments on, and its ability to withstand, climate change. It assesses how the country can: reduce its vulnerability to climate shocks through targeted public and private investments and adequation of social protection. The report also shows how Argentina can seize the benefits of a global decarbonization path to sustain a more robust economic growth through further development of Argentina’s potential for renewable energy, energy efficiency actions, the lithium value chain, as well as climate-smart agriculture (and land use) options. Given Argentina’s context, this CCDR focuses on win-win policies and investments, which have large co-benefits or can contribute to raising the country’s growth while helping to adapt the economy, also considering how human capital actions can accompany a just transition.
  • Publication
    Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2022
    (Washington, DC, 2022-11) World Bank
    The economy continues to contract, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. Public finances improved in 2021, but only because spending collapsed faster than revenue generation. Testament to the continued atrophy of Lebanon’s economy, the Lebanese Pound continues to depreciate sharply. The sharp deterioration in the currency continues to drive surging inflation, in triple digits since July 2020, impacting the poor and vulnerable the most. An unprecedented institutional vacuum will likely further delay any agreement on crisis resolution and much needed reforms; this includes prior actions as part of the April 2022 International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement (SLA). Divergent views among key stakeholders on how to distribute the financial losses remains the main bottleneck for reaching an agreement on a comprehensive reform agenda. Lebanon needs to urgently adopt a domestic, equitable, and comprehensive solution that is predicated on: (i) addressing upfront the balance sheet impairments, (ii) restoring liquidity, and (iii) adhering to sound global practices of bail-in solutions based on a hierarchy of creditors (starting with banks’ shareholders) that protects small depositors.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.