Publication:
Managing Resource-Induced Volatility in Papua New Guinea: Some Issues for Discussion

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (839.62 KB)
324 downloads
English Text (161.32 KB)
55 downloads
Published
2010-03-03
ISSN
Date
2017-08-10
Author(s)
Ollero, Tony
Editor(s)
Abstract
This report reviews developments in Papua New Guinea (PNG) since independence, and looks at the issues relevant for saving and managing natural resources and resource induced volatility. These issues could serve as a useful basis for discussion of options the government of PNG could pursue as it emerges from the economic and financial crisis and looks forward to the start of operation of the PNG liquified natural gas (LNG) project. Although the wealth of international experience suggests several key areas for the attention of the authorities, many issues can be addressed only on the basis of detailed projections about future resource flows and investment outlays. Whether the rules will prove effective will also depend on other steps to enhance the fiscal framework. The World Bank can provide more detailed analysis, expertise and recommendations should such data become available.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Ollero, Tony; Izvorski, Ivailo. 2010. Managing Resource-Induced Volatility in Papua New Guinea: Some Issues for Discussion. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/27727 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Policy and Institutional Dynamics of Sustained Development in Botswana
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008) Maipose, Gervase S.
    Botswana represents one of the few development success stories in Sub-Saharan Africa. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth averaged almost 9 percent between 1960 and 2005, far above the Sub-Saharan Africa average. Real GDP per capita grew even faster, averaging more than 10 percent a year -- the most rapid economic growth of any country in the world. The crucial question is: Why has Botswana grown the way it has done, and what lessons does it offer? This evidence-based story is an account of policy and institutional dynamics of sustained growth and development in Botswana -- illuminating the role of leadership. It shows how a secure political elite has pursued growth-promoting policies and developed, modified, and maintained viable inherited traditional and modern institutions of political, economic, and legal restraint. These institutions have remained robust in the face of initial large aid inflows and spectacular mineral rents, producing a growth pattern that has been both rapid and cautious. The nature of the Botswana developmental state is illustrated by the way in which the state mobilized development resources-especially savings, investment, and human resources, widely known as the primary drivers of economic growth, and prudently managed the economy without becoming excessively involved in the nuts. It demonstrates that through intentional policy choices and countercyclical instruments, countries can shift from aid-dependent to trade-led natural resource development (though probably with narrow-based growth), to a broader development strategy as long as the state is capable and operates within effective institutional design. Botswana's story is sterling example of how the critical issue in development is not so much access to resources but how resources are managed.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2010
    (Jakarta, 2010-12) World Bank
    The Indonesian economic quarterly reports on and synthesizes the past three months' key developments in Indonesia's economy. Its coverage ranges from the macro economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, and financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. The challenge for Indonesia is to maximize the opportunities that this brings, in terms of enhancing future growth and making investments that can improve the welfare of the entire population, while managing the associated risks. Strong capital inflows, particularly portfolio, have been seen across emerging markets, including Indonesia. These inflows are driven by yield differentials and the stronger growth prospects, and improved creditworthiness, of emerging economies relative to heavily indebted, higher-income economies. Further quantitative easing in the US has provided an additional, cyclical boost to this trend. Global commodity prices also picked up in recent months. In November, the US dollar price of non-energy commodities rose by 3.4 percent over the month with food and raw material prices up by 4.9 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively. The underlying drivers were strong growth in demand from emerging economies, particularly China, and also supply disruptions in the agriculture sector.
  • Publication
    Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2014
    (Washington, DC, 2014-04) World Bank
    Lebanon faces serious challenges from a volatile security environment and spillovers from the ongoing Syrian conflict which pose serious risks to an already fragile internal political situation. Security incidents have become increasingly more common and the volatile security environment is weakening consumer and investor sentiments and adversely affecting tourism, a central contributor to economic growth and employment in Lebanon. The influx of Syrian refugees to Lebanon persists, with officially registered refugees reaching close to 1 million (i.e., 21.6 percent of Lebanon’s pre-conflict population), which poses significant fiscal, health and educational challenges.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly FY14 : Compilation of the July 2013, October 2013, December 2013 and March 2014 Indonesia Economic Quarterly Reports
    (Washington, DC, 2014-06) World Bank
    The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer term and global context. Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. Indonesia's fiscal and monetary policy settings will continue to play a key role in facilitating the adjustments now taking place and in minimizing associated risks. There are, however, trade-offs between the objectives of restraining inflation, supporting growth and adjusting the current account deficit to the tighter financing environment. Monetary policy faces the challenge of calibrating interest and exchange rates so as to guard against rising inflationary pressures as cost pressures rise (such as from the pass-through of the weaker currency or wage increases) while facilitating improvements in the external balances, and without unduly crimping economic growth and weakening public and private sector balance sheets. With the 2014 budget under discussion with Parliament, fiscal policy faces the challenge of slower revenue growth, and higher energy subsidy and nominal debt-financing costs, raising the importance of lifting further the quality of spending and of revenue mobilization. In response to the intensification of financial market pressures, and in conjunction with the monetary policy and currency market measures mentioned above, on August 23 the Government announced a policy package containing measures intended to improve the current account, safeguard purchasing power and facilitate growth, contain inflationary pressure, and maintain investment flows. Some of the reform measures involved retracting interventionist policies on trade and proposals for improving certainty in the business environment.
  • Publication
    Indonesia Economic Quarterly, October 2013 : Continuing Adjustment
    (World Bank, Jakarta, 2013-10) World Bank
    The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia's economy, and places these in a longer-term and global context. Based on these developments and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia's economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia's medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. A key component of the reform process has been the devolution of responsibility for basic education services to local governments and schools, and improvements in local governance can thus play a vital role in raising the quality of basic education and ensuring children leave school with adequate skills. Indeed, the Indonesian Local Education Governance (ILEG) surveys, conducted in 2009 and 2012, suggest that the quality of local governance is important for improving district education performance, making it important to continue to address key governance constraints, and to better coordinate and integrate central government financing in local education planning.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Remarks to the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-11-20) Malpass, David
    World Bank Group President David Malpass said that while some countries are recovering, the pandemic is still taking a terrible toll, with poverty levels rising sharply. He highlighted on the health emergency response programs in one hundred twelve countries using a fast-track mechanism that is now able to access a further window of twelve billion in funding for vaccine purchases and delivery. He also mentioned that the World Bank is already at work in cooperation with WHO, UNICEF, the Global Fund and GAVI on rapid vaccine deployment readiness assessments for one hundred countries. He spoke about IFC working in coordination with CEPI to invest a further four billion in manufacturing and distribution of vaccines and products that support vaccination programs. He recognized that fragile conflict and violence (FCV) states are most in need, and World Bank's engagement with them. Under his Presidency, the World Bank Group has invested more in climate finance than at any time in its history. He mentioned that IDA is frontloading its financing to make more resources available for the poorest countries. He highlighted on an important step that the G20 call on DSSI beneficiary countries to commit to disclose all public sector financial commitments. The Development Committee that asked the Bank and the IMF to propose more actions to address the unsustainable debt burdens of low- and middle-income countries. He concluded that the fuller transparency is the only way to balance the interests of the people with the interests of those signing the debt and investment contracts.
  • Publication
    South Asia Development Update, October 2024: Women, Jobs, and Growth
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-10) World Bank
    South Asia’s growth is on track to exceed earlier expectations, in a broad-based upturn. The region is expected to remain the fastest-growing among emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Several risks could upend this generally promising outlook, including extreme weather events, social unrest, and policy missteps, such as reform delays. But South Asian countries also have considerable untapped potential that could help them further boost productivity growth and employment and adapt to climate change. In particular, with about two-thirds of the region’s working-age women out of the labor force, raising female employment rates to those of men could increase per capita income by as much as one-half. Measures to accelerate job creation, remove obstacles to women working, and equalize gender rights would be more effective if combined with a shift toward social norms that looked more favorably on working women. Also, most South Asian countries rank among the EMDEs least open to global trade and investment. Greater openness could boost women’s employment, spur the growth of firms, and allow the region to take better advantage of the reshaping of global supply chains and trade. Reducing the cost of conducting business could help the region better harness large-scale remittance inflows.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Social Gains in the Balance : A Fiscal Policy Challenge for Latin America and the Caribbean
    (Washington, DC, 2014-02-24) World Bank
    In 2012, the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region continued its successful drive to reduce poverty and build the middle class. The proportion of the region's 600 million people living in extreme poverty, defined in the region as life on less than $2.50 a day, was cut in half between 2003 and 2012 to 12.3 percent. Reflecting the upward mobility out of poverty, households vulnerable to falling back into poverty became the largest group in LAC in 2005, and represent almost 38 percent of the population. However, in the last two years, the share of vulnerable households has started to decline. The middle class, currently 34.3 percent of the population, is growing rapidly and is projected to replace the vulnerable as the largest economic group in LAC by 2016. The Southern Cone region (including Brazil) continued to be the most dynamic region and the main driver of poverty reduction in LAC, while poverty in Central America and Mexico proved more stubborn. About 68 percent of poverty reduction between 2003 and 2012 was driven by economic growth, with the remaining 32 percent arising from decline in inequality. Overall, equality of access to basic childhood goods and services has improved in recent years. Yet access can be further improved, and serious issues remain concerning the quality of those goods and services, particularly in education and housing infrastructure. Moreover, access increases with parental education and income or assets, reflecting low intergenerational mobility in many countries in the region. As with poverty reduction, most of the progress in equality of access since 2000 has come in the Southern Cone and the Andean regions, while many of Central America's countries managed only small improvements. There are also severe differences at the subnational level and between urban and rural areas, highlighting the need to strengthen the capacity of local governments to deliver high quality basic services to all their citizens.
  • Publication
    World Bank East Asia and the Pacific Economic Update, October 2024: Jobs and Technology
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-07) World Bank
    East Asia and the Pacific, seen in the context of the world economy, stands out as a paragon of development. Despite the recent ravages of the pandemic and the persistent tensions of geopolitics, the region is growing at stably high rates and the benefits are widely shared. But compared to its own past and potential, the region’s economic performance is less impressive. Growth is still below pre-pandemic rates, except in Indonesia, and output has not yet recovered to pre-pandemic levels in several countries, especially in the Pacific. This Economic Update highlights three key developments: shifting regional growth dynamics as China’s growth slows, changing trade patterns due to global tensions, and the impact of technologies such as robots, artificial intelligence, and digital platforms on jobs. The report calls for productivity-enhancing structural reforms to strengthen domestic growth drivers through; deeper international trade agreements to foster more open and stable trade regimes; deeper technical, digital, and soft skills while addressing impediments to labor mobility, factor price distortions and expanding social protection for workers in the digital informal economy to boost productivity and employment.