Publication: Philippines Quarterly Update, December 2011: Sustaining Growth in Uncertain Times
Loading...
Date
2011-12
ISSN
Published
2011-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011. Slower third quarter (Q3) growth of 3.2 percent was the result of significant contractions in exports and public investment. The contraction in exports largely reflected weaker demand in advanced economies while public investments continued to shrink in part because of measures to improve accountability of public spending. On the production side, industrial and agricultural activities were sluggish, leaving the services sector to buoy growth. To improve growth outcome in the remainder of the year, the government announced a PHP 72 billion (about 0.7 percent of GDP) disbursement acceleration plan to ensure that budgeted items are spent by year end. After a strong rebound in 2010, Philippine economic growth slowed by more than half to 3.6 percent in the first three quarters of 2011, bringing year to date growth below the government's revised target of 4.5 to 5.5 percent for 2011. Q3 growth of 3.2 percent was driven by private consumption and inventory build-up, which grew by 7.1 and 147.7 percent respectively. The country's slower expansion places it behind its neighbors with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Singapore growing above 6 percent, Malaysia at 5.8 percent, and Thailand, which was devastated by massive flooding in recent months, at 3.5 percent.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2011. Philippines Quarterly Update, December 2011: Sustaining Growth in Uncertain Times. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/26692 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Philippine Economic Update : Pursuing Inclusive Growth through Sustainable Reconstruction and Job Creation(Washington, DC, 2014-03)Despite typhoon Yolanda and a string of natural disasters throughout 2013, Philippine economic growth accelerated to 7.2 percent in 2013. Higher growth was underpinned by the robust performance of consumption and services, and supported by the expansion of investments and manufacturing. Like other emerging markets, Philippine financial markets experienced large volatilities as investors responded to the tapering of the United States (U.S.) stimulus program. Monetary and fiscal policy remained supportive of growth. Amid the challenging global environment and the impact of typhoon Yolanda, the Philippines are likely to sustain high growth in the medium-term. Risks to growth include a slower global recovery, financial market volatilities following the tapering of the U.S. stimulus program, potential bubbles in the real estate sector, slower post-typhoon reconstruction, and domestic reform lags. The government responded quickly to the typhoon by rolling out immediate humanitarian aid and preparing the reconstruction assistance on Yolanda (RAY), a strategic plan to guide recovery and reconstruction in the affected areas. The Philippines will also need to prepare more broadly for the increased risk of disasters brought about by climate change. The Philippine economic update provides an update on key economic and social developments, and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank studies on the Philippines.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04-20)The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. Lebanon continues to be impacted by the domestic political stalemate and regional turmoil, particularly along its border with Syria. Economic activity picked up in the second half of 2014. Stronger economic performance and lower oil prices pushed real GDP growth to an estimated 2.0 percent in 2014, compared to 0.9 percent in 2013. One-off cosmetic and unsustainable measures rather than policy actions helped improve the fiscal balance in 2014. We estimate the overall fiscal deficit to have declined by 2.3 percentage points. Declining imports lead an improvement in the current account balance. In 2014, a fall in merchandize imports induced a 4.4 pp reduction in the current account deficit to a still-elevated 22.2 percent of GDP. This trend is projected to continue in 2015 helped by falling oil prices and a depreciating euro, Headline inflation plummeted from 2.7 percent in 2013 to 1.9 percent in 2014 and is expected to remain tempered over the medium term. Lebanon s economy continues to be exposed to external shocks. The border with Syria is increasingly menacing as coordinated attacks by ISIS and Al Nusra are being launched more frequently from their bases in Syria. Inefficiencies in power generation impose sizable macroeconomic costs on Lebanon. The Lebanese electricity sector has been underperforming for decades with considerable socio-economic costs. The macroeconomic impact has been massive.Publication Decision Time : Spend More or Spend Smart? Kenya Public Expenditure Review(Nairobi, 2014-12)Kenya is currently in an expansionary phase of its fiscal policy reflected in a widening primary deficit. The fiscal framework is marked by a significant fiscal expansion over the last three years, 2011/12 to 2013/14. The fiscal stimulus implemented in 2009/10 increased aggregate spending by 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However the envisaged fiscal retrenchment at the end of the program did not materialize and fiscal expansion continued with the general election in 2013. Aggregate expenditure averaged 25 percent and revenue at 18 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit financed through debt is reflected in the doubling of the primary deficit (commitment basis) now in the range of 3.3 percent of GDP, and the rising stock of public debt from 37 percent to 43 percent of GDP (net of deposits), of which about half 22 percent was external debt in 2013/14. The fiscal developments have seen an increase in the share of debt service in total spending from 13 percent to 15 percent of recurrent spending, equivalent to 2.6 percent of GDP. Kenya s debt service is higher among East Africa Community (EAC) peers, 2 percentage points above Ethiopia and Rwanda, and 1 percentage point higher than Uganda and Tanzania.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Papua New Guinea(Washington, DC, 2010-12)At the request of the Government of Papua New Guinea (PNG), a mission comprised of Jeff Chelsky (PRMVP, mission lead), Tomas Magnusson (BDM, consultant), Greg Horman (BDM, consultant) and Tim Bulman (EAP, country economist), visited Port Moresby between November 22nd and December 3rd to undertake a DeMPA exercise. The team met with officials from the Department of Treasury, Bank of Papua New Guinea, Department of Finance, Department of National Planning and Monitoring, State Solicitor's Office, Auditor General's Office, Independent Public Business Corporation (IPBC), AUSAid, Asian Development Bank, ANZ Bank, Nambawan Super, and Bank South Pacific (BSP). This report reflects comments received from the PNG authorities in February 2011. The mission found that, in a number of areas, PNG meets or exceeds minimum DeMPA requirements. Strengths include the quality of the debt management strategy, the framework for domestic debt issuance, coordination with monetary policy, and the legal framework (except for the issuance of T-bills for which the law contains no explicit borrowing purposes). Looking ahead, the Government has expressed its intention, as part of the 2011 budget and its updated 2011 Medium-term Debt Management Strategy, to remove the nominal cap on external debt, replacing it with a cap of 30 percent of Gross Domestic Product, or GDP. The commitment to allocate a portion of excess government revenue to debt reduction will only apply when the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 30 percent of GDP. At the same time, the Government has reiterated its commitment to reducing the exchange rate risks to its debt portfolio by targeting 40 percent of total debt over the medium term for the external portion of the portfolio. Interest rate risk will be reduced through continued efforts to extend the maturity of domestic debt.Publication Pakistan Development Update, April 2014(Washington, DC, 2014-04)Pakistan's economy is weak but at a turning point. Growth recovery is underway, with the projected GDP growth approaching 3.6-4.0 percent, driven by dynamic manufacturing and service sectors, better energy availability, and early revival of investor confidence. Inflation is steady at 7.9 percent (y-o-y). The fiscal deficit is contained at around 6 percent of GDP due to improved tax collection and restricted current and development expenditure. The current account deficit remains modest, at around 1 percent of GDP, supported by strong remittances and export dynamism, and the external position is slowly improving since monetary and exchange rate policies switched gear toward rebuilding reserves last November. Performance under the IMF program remains satisfactory, with the 2nd Review concluded on March 24. Domestic and external risks, however, remain high, but are declining. Economic activity is gradually improving. Preliminary data for FY14 show growth picking up, driven mainly by services and manufacturing. A significant correction of a loose fiscal stance is taking place to ensure sustainability. Pakistan is on track to meet a fiscal deficit target of 5.8 percent of GDP in FY14. The external position is fragile but strengthening. The current account deficit was small, at around 1 percent of GDP by end-FY13 and remains so. In contrast, net official foreign exchange reserves declined to the equivalent of 1.3 months of imports at the end of June 2013 (bottoming down to 0.6 month of imports by the end of November 2013). Three sources of risk appear worrisome. Pakistan imports more than it exports, the latter being constrained by low productivity and competitiveness, limited access to reliable energy, and cumbersome business regulations.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication South Asia Development Update, April 2024: Jobs for Resilience(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-04-02)South Asia is expected to continue to be the fastest-growing emerging market and developing economy (EMDE) region over the next two years. This is largely thanks to robust growth in India, but growth is also expected to pick up in most other South Asian economies. However, growth in the near-term is more reliant on the public sector than elsewhere, whereas private investment, in particular, continues to be weak. Efforts to rein in elevated debt, borrowing costs, and fiscal deficits may eventually weigh on growth and limit governments' ability to respond to increasingly frequent climate shocks. Yet, the provision of public goods is among the most effective strategies for climate adaptation. This is especially the case for households and farms, which tend to rely on shifting their efforts to non-agricultural jobs. These strategies are less effective forms of climate adaptation, in part because opportunities to move out of agriculture are limited by the region’s below-average employment ratios in the non-agricultural sector and for women. Because employment growth is falling short of working-age population growth, the region fails to fully capitalize on its demographic dividend. Vibrant, competitive firms are key to unlocking the demographic dividend, robust private investment, and workers’ ability to move out of agriculture. A range of policies could spur firm growth, including improved business climates and institutions, the removal of financial sector restrictions, and greater openness to trade and capital flows.Publication The Journey Ahead(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31)The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia provides an in-depth analysis of international migration in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and the implications for policy making. By identifying challenges and opportunities associated with migration in the region, it aims to inform a more nuanced, evidencebased debate on the costs and benefits of cross-border mobility. Using data-driven insights and new analysis, the report shows that migration has been an engine of prosperity and has helped address some of ECA’s demographic and socioeconomic disparities. Yet, migration’s full economic potential remains untapped. The report identifies multiple barriers keeping migration from achieving its full potential. Crucially, it argues that policies in both origin and destination countries can help maximize the development impacts of migration and effectively manage the economic, social, and political costs. Drawing from a wide range of literature, country experiences, and novel analysis, The Journey Ahead presents actionable policy options to enhance the benefits of migration for destination and origin countries and migrants themselves. Some measures can be taken unilaterally by countries, whereas others require close bilateral or regional coordination. The recommendations are tailored to different types of migration— forced displacement as well as high-skilled and low-skilled economic migration—and from the perspectives of both sending and receiving countries. This report serves as a comprehensive resource for governments, development partners, and other stakeholders throughout Europe and Central Asia, where the richness and diversity of migration experiences provide valuable insights for policy makers in other regions of the world.Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.