Publication: Decision Time : Spend More or Spend Smart? Kenya Public Expenditure Review
Loading...
Date
2014-12
ISSN
Published
2014-12
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Kenya is currently in an expansionary phase of its fiscal policy reflected in a widening primary deficit. The fiscal framework is marked by a significant fiscal expansion over the last three years, 2011/12 to 2013/14. The fiscal stimulus implemented in 2009/10 increased aggregate spending by 2 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However the envisaged fiscal retrenchment at the end of the program did not materialize and fiscal expansion continued with the general election in 2013. Aggregate expenditure averaged 25 percent and revenue at 18 percent of GDP. The fiscal deficit financed through debt is reflected in the doubling of the primary deficit (commitment basis) now in the range of 3.3 percent of GDP, and the rising stock of public debt from 37 percent to 43 percent of GDP (net of deposits), of which about half 22 percent was external debt in 2013/14. The fiscal developments have seen an increase in the share of debt service in total spending from 13 percent to 15 percent of recurrent spending, equivalent to 2.6 percent of GDP. Kenya s debt service is higher among East Africa Community (EAC) peers, 2 percentage points above Ethiopia and Rwanda, and 1 percentage point higher than Uganda and Tanzania.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank Group. 2014. Decision Time : Spend More or Spend Smart? Kenya Public Expenditure Review. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21507 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : The Gambia(Washington, DC, 2010-04)During January 11 to 20, 2010, a World Bank team undertook a Debt Management Performance Assessment (DeMPA) mission to Gambia. This tool provides a methodology for assessing government debt management performance through a comprehensive set of dimensions spanning the full range of DeM functions. The first time the tool was applied in Gambia was in 2007, when a pilot study was carried out, and this was a follow-up mission. The DeMPA methodology has evolved since the report made in 2007 and therefore it is not possible to carry out a strict comparison of the two DeMPA reports in terms of individual indicators as the detailed dimensions that make up an indicator are no longer aggregated; instead, each dimension is given a specific score. It is clear however that Gambia's debt management has progressed substantially in some dimensions during recent years although there are still remaining issues that would benefit from reform and institutional capacity-building. The mission notes that given that several reforms are currently being implemented, it is to be expected that future DeMPA evaluations will show stronger scores. At this moment there is institutional capacity-building in the area of the Integrated Financial Management Information System (IFMIS) and cash management; the design of procedures manuals for Directorate of Debt Management (DDM), and the design of a draft bill on public debt management which would provide a more strategic, objectives-based legal orientation to debt management.Publication Debt Management Performance Assessment : Sierra Leone(Washington, DC, 2009-12)The results of this assessment show that seven (7) indicators warranted an overall score of C or better, demonstrating compliance with the minimum requirement; these referred to the debt management strategy; evaluation of debt management operation; coordination with fiscal policy; domestic borrowing; external borrowing; debt records and debt reporting, and debt administration and data security. A total of eight (8) indicators did not meet the minimum requirement at the time of the mission. These correspond to legal framework; managerial structure; audit, coordination with monetary policy; loan guarantees and on-lending; cash-flow forecasting and balance management; segregation of duties, staff capacity and business continuity and debt reporting. The mission notes that Ministry of Finance and Economic Development, or MOFED is currently implementing reforms in the areas of public debt management and domestic debt market development, including i) designing a new comprehensive public debt law; ii) implementing the reorganization of the debt management unit in MOFED; iii) formulating and implementing a procedures manual for debt management functions in MOFED; iv) implementing connectivity between two major data bases, namely CSDRMS and the integrated financial management system of the government. As a consequence, the mission expects several of these indicators to improve with reform implementation.Publication Ethiopia's Medium Term Debt Management Strategy (2013-2017)(Addis Ababa, 2012-10)This medium term debt management strategy (MTDS) for Ethiopia provides a framework for developing an effective public sector debt management strategy that aims to achieve a desired composition of the public sector debt portfolio that reflects a cost-risk analysis and captures the government's preferences with regard to the cost-risk trade-off. This MTDS is considered a tool for evaluating and managing the risk involved with different debt compositions; facilitating coordination with fiscal and monetary management; and enhancing transparency. It ensures that the government's financing needs and payment obligations are met at the lowest possible cost consistent with a prudent degree of risk.Publication Analysis and Options for Namibia's Medium-Term Debt Strategy(Washington, DC, 2013-06)Since gaining its independence 23 years ago, Namibia has established an enviable track record of political stability, prudent macroeconomic policies, moderate growth, poverty reduction, and natural resource conservation. The country has achieved these gains while facing constraints imposed by geography, legacies of apartheid and colonialism, and the challenges of constructing a national government. Daunting challenges remain, however. Namibia suffers from chronic high unemployment, the ravages of HIV/AIDS, and one of the world most skewed distributions of income. The structure of the economy has remained fundamentally unchanged since Independence: minerals and metals make up the majority of exports; the public sector remains the largest employer; and there has been little investment in labor-intensive manufacturing, which in many countries has absorbed low-skilled labor exiting traditional agriculture. This report uses the Medium-Term Debt Management Strategy (MTDS) framework developed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to analyze options facing the GRN as it prepares the new Sovereign Debt Management Strategy (SDMS). This framework emphasizes the explicit analysis of relative costs and risks in a debt management strategy, the linkages between the debt strategy and other macroeconomic policies, and the strategy's consistency with debt sustainability. The report opens with a review of the GRN's current debt management strategy, the sources of financing available to the government, and the macroeconomic environment. The report then applies the MTDS analytical tool to analyze costs and risks of alternative debt management strategies that were developed by MOF participants in the November 2012 capacity-building exercise. It also examines domestic debt market development and contingent liabilities arising from government guarantees, two issues of special concern to the GRN. Finally, it discusses institutional arrangements and implementation issues.Publication Egypt beyond the Crisis : Medium-Term Challenges for Sustained Growth(2010-10-01)The paper analyzes the impact of the recent global crisis in the context of the previous two decades' growth and capital flows. Growth decomposition exercises show that Egyptian growth is driven mostly by capital accumulation. To estimate the share of labor in national income, the analysis adjusts the national accounts statistics to include the compensation of self-employed and non-paid family workers. Still, the share of labor, about 30 percent, is significantly lower than previously estimated. The authors estimate the output costs of the current crisis by comparing the output trajectory that would have prevailed without the crisis with the observed and revised gross domestic product projections for the medium term. The fall in private investment was the main driver of the output cost. Even if private investment recovers its pre-crisis levels, there is a permanent loss in gross domestic product per capita of about 2 percent with respect to the scenario without the crisis. The paper shows how the shock to investment is magnified due to the capital-intensive nature of the Egyptian economy: if the economy had the traditionally-used share of labor in income (40 percent), the output loss would have been reduced by half.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Economic Recovery(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-04-06)World Bank Group President David Malpass spoke about the world facing major challenges, including COVID, climate change, rising poverty and inequality and growing fragility and violence in many countries. He highlighted vaccines, working closely with Gavi, WHO, and UNICEF, the World Bank has conducted over one hundred capacity assessments, many even more before vaccines were available. The World Bank Group worked to achieve a debt service suspension initiative and increased transparency in debt contracts at developing countries. The World Bank Group is finalizing a new climate change action plan, which includes a big step up in financing, building on their record climate financing over the past two years. He noted big challenges to bring all together to achieve GRID: green, resilient, and inclusive development. Janet Yellen, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, mentioned focusing on vulnerable people during the pandemic. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, focused on giving everyone a fair shot during a sustainable recovery. All three commented on the importance of tackling climate change.Publication Early Child Development, From Measurement to Action : A priority for Growth and Equity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2007)The World Bank recently hosted a symposium on the priority of early child development (ECD) for economic growth and equity. The participants urged application of population-based tools and measures to assess the outcomes of children's early years and children's readiness for school. This study is derived from the symposium and is a valuable resource for policy makers, economists, donors, and investors, as well as researchers and practitioners in early child development. It summarizes the current neuroscience on early child development and major longitudinal studies, the rationale and urgency for greater investment, and countries' innovative funding strategies. The report consists of 15 chapters authored by ECD experts and leaders in the field. The chapters are grouped into five main parts relating to the: business imperative and societal benefits of ECD investments; lessons from evaluation of longitudinal ECD interventions; countries' experiences in monitoring ECD interventions; innovative approaches to countries' financing of ECD initiatives; and next steps on the ECD agenda for the next 5 years. A theme highlighted at the symposium and enlarged upon here is the urgent need for evidence- and population-based instruments and measures to monitor, evaluate, and compare ECD interventions over time and across settings.Publication Climate Change and Migration : Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-07-15)Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. This study focuses on the link between climate change and migration. Most micro-level studies measure climate change either by the incidences of extreme weather events or by variation in temperature or rainfall. A few studies have found that formal and informal institutions as well as policies also affect migration. Institutions that make government more responsive to households (for example through public spending) discourage both international and domestic migration in the aftermath of extreme weather events. Migration is often an option of last resort after vulnerable rural populations attempting to cope with new and challenging circumstances have exhausted other options such as eating less, selling assets, or removing children from school. This study is based in large part on new data collected in 2011 in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and the Republic of Yemen. The surveys were administered by in-country partners to a randomly selected set of 800 households per country. It is also important to emphasize that neither the household survey results nor the findings from the qualitative focus groups are meant to be representative of the five countries in which the work was carried, since only a few areas were surveyed in each country. This report is organized as follows: section one gives synthesis. Section two discusses household perceptions about climate change and extreme weather events. Section three focuses on migration as a coping mechanisms and income diversification strategy. Section four examines other coping and adaptation strategies. Section five discusses perceptions about government and community programs.Publication Remarks at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10-12)World Bank Group President David Malpass discussed biodiversity and climate change being closely interlinked, with terrestrial and marine ecosystems serving as critically important carbon sinks. At the same time climate change acts as a direct driver of biodiversity and ecosystem services loss. The World Bank has financed biodiversity conservation around the world, including over 116 million hectares of Marine and Coastal Protected Areas, 10 million hectares of Terrestrial Protected Areas, and over 300 protected habitats, biological buffer zones and reserves. The COVID pandemic, biodiversity loss, climate change are all reminders of how connected we are. The recovery from this pandemic is an opportunity to put in place more effective policies, institutions, and resources to address biodiversity loss.Publication Media and Messages for Nutrition and Health(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-06)The Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has experienced rapid and significant economic growth over the past decade. However, poor nutritional outcomes remain a concern. Rates of childhood undernutrition are particularly high in remote, rural, and upland areas. Media have the potential to play an important role in shaping health and nutrition–related behaviors and practices as well as in promoting sociocultural and economic development that might contribute to improved nutritional outcomes. This report presents the results of a media audit (MA) that was conducted to inform the development and production of mass media advocacy and communication strategies and materials with a focus on maternal and child health and nutrition that would reach the most people from the poorest communities in northern Lao PDR. Making more people aware of useful information, essential services and products and influencing them to use these effectively is the ultimate goal of mass media campaigns, and the MA measures the potential effectiveness of media efforts to reach this goal. The effectiveness of communication channels to deliver health and nutrition messages to target beneficiaries to ensure maximum reach and uptake can be viewed in terms of preferences, satisfaction, and trust. Overall, the four most accessed media channels for receiving information among communities in the study areas were village announcements, mobile phones, television, and out-of-home (OOH) media. Of the accessed media channels, the top three most preferred channels were village announcements (40 percent), television (26 percent), and mobile phones (19 percent). In terms of trust, village announcements were the most trusted source of information (64 percent), followed by mobile phones (14 percent) and television (11 percent). Hence of all the media channels, village announcements are the most preferred, have the most satisfied users, and are the most trusted source of information in study communities from four provinces in Lao PDR with some of the highest burden of childhood undernutrition.