Publication:
The Effects of Local Market Concentration and International Competition on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Mexico

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF Revised (1.48 MB)
527 downloads
Published
2020-04
ISSN
Date
2020-04-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
Although market concentration is one of the main impediments to productivity growth globally, data constraints have limited its analysis to developed countries or cross-country studies based on definitions of market concentration across nations and industries. This paper takes advantage of a database that is unusual by developing-country standards by means of leveraging the richness of five rounds of the Mexican Manufacturing Census between 1994 and 2014. The data allow estimation of the effects of local industry concentration on productivity. The main results show that a decline by 10 points in the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (on a 0-100 scale), a measure of market concentration, explains an increase by 1 percent in the total factor productivity of revenue. Local industry concentration also has heterogeneous effects on productivity across industries, while its impact on productivity varies by level of exposure to international markets. The results here show that the effect of greater exposure to trade offsets and, in most cases, reverses the negative effects of local concentration on productivity. These results are robust to specifications based on the estimation of firm productivity using the panels of establishment data from the 2009 and 2014 rounds of the economic census, to controlling for a proxy of markups, and to the use of alternate indicators of local industry concentration.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar; Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos; Lopez-Calva, Luis Felipe. 2020. The Effects of Local Market Concentration and International Competition on Firm Productivity: Evidence from Mexico. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9210. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33604 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09) Munoz, Ercio; Van der Weide, Roy
    This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.
  • Publication
    Engineering Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-29) Akcigit, Ufuk; Kilic, Furkan; Lall, Somik; Shpak, Solomiya
    As Ukraine emerges from the devastation of war, it faces a historic opportunity to engineer its own Wirtschaftswunder—a productivity-driven economic transformation akin to post-war West Germany. While investment-led growth may offer quick wins, it is efficiency, innovation, and institutional reform that will determine Ukraine’s long-term economic trajectory. Drawing on rich micro-level firm data spanning 25 years, this paper uncovers deep structural distortions that have suppressed creative destruction and productivity in Ukraine. It finds that business dynamism is on the decline, alongside rising market concentration among incumbent businesses, including low productivity state owned enterprises. To inform priorities for reviving business dynamism, this study develops a model of creative destruction drawing on Acemoglu et al. (2018) and Akcigit et al. (2021). The quantitative assessment highlights that policies that discipline entrenched incumbents are the bedrock for reviving business dynamism and engineer Ukraine’s Wirtschaftswunder. Policies targeting specific types of firms have limited efficacy when incumbents run wild.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    The Future of Poverty
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-15) Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna; Nguyen, Minh C.; Corral, Paul
    Climate change is increasingly acknowledged as a critical issue with far-reaching socioeconomic implications that extend well beyond environmental concerns. Among the most pressing challenges is its impact on global poverty. This paper projects the potential impacts of unmitigated climate change on global poverty rates between 2023 and 2050. Building on a study that provided a detailed analysis of how temperature changes affect economic productivity, this paper integrates those findings with binned data from 217 countries, sourced from the World Bank’s Poverty and Inequality Platform. By simulating poverty rates and the number of poor under two climate change scenarios, the paper uncovers some alarming trends. One of the primary findings is that the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide could be nearly doubled due to climate change. In all scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to bear the brunt, contributing the largest number of poor people, with estimates ranging between 40.5 million and 73.5 million by 2050. Another significant finding is the disproportionate impact of inequality on poverty. Even small increases in inequality can lead to substantial rises in poverty levels. For instance, if every country’s Gini coefficient increases by just 1 percent between 2022 and 2050, an additional 8.8 million people could be pushed below the international poverty line by 2050. In a more extreme scenario, where every country’s Gini coefficient increases by 10 percent between 2022 and 2050, the number of people falling into poverty could rise by an additional 148.8 million relative to the baseline scenario. These findings underscore the urgent need for comprehensive climate policies that not only mitigate environmental impacts but also address socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
  • Publication
    Unequal Burdens, Uneven Benefits
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-08-21) Buitrago-Hernandez, Paola; De la Flor Giuffra, Luciana; Rivera, Gonzalo; Rubiano-Matulevich, Eliana
    This paper applies a gender lens to the distributional analysis of Peru’s fiscal system using the Commitment to Equity methodology with data from the 2019 Encuesta Nacional de Hogares. The paper examines how taxes and transfers affect households with gender-relevant characteristics, including presence of dependents, care responsibilities, and agricultural reliance. The analysis reveals that while Peru’s fiscal system increases poverty when considering taxes and cash transfers (consumable income), it reduces both poverty and inequality when including the monetized value of education and health services (final income). The findings also show that nuclear, extended, and single-parent households experience poverty increases after fiscal interventions, while elderly and single adult households see reductions in poverty. Agricultural households benefit more due to targeted transfers and lower tax burdens. Policy simulations show that expanding the generosity of existing direct transfers reduces poverty, especially for single mothers and agricultural households, but still falls short in addressing disadvantages faced by families with caregiving responsibilities. The findings underscore the need for a more gender-responsive fiscal agenda.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Sustaining Poverty Gains
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-09-05) Barriga-Cabanillas, Oscar; Bossuroy, Thomas; Corral Rodas, Paul Andres; Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos; Skoufias, Emmanuel
    Poverty maps are a useful tool for targeting social programs on areas with high concentrations of poverty. However, a static focus on poverty ignores its temporal dimension. Thus, current nonpoor households still face substantial welfare volatility and are at risk of becoming poor in the face of shocks. This paper combines the methods of poverty mapping and vulnerability estimation to create highly disaggregated vulnerability maps. The maps include predictions of the share of chronically poor households (poverty-induced vulnerability)—the focus of traditional poverty maps—and the share of households showing a significant probability of falling into poverty (risk-induced vulnerability). As an application of the method, the paper estimates a vulnerability map for Senegal that provides quotas for the expansion of the social registry. Accounting for the poor and the population at risk of poverty implies, in practice, the expansion of coverage into urban and peri-urban areas that tend to experience lower poverty rates. The inclusion of nonpoor households also serves as a first step toward supporting a dynamic social registry.
  • Publication
    Income Inequality and Violent Crime : Evidence from Mexico's Drug War
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06) Enamorado, Ted; López-Calva, Luis-Felipe; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos; Winkler, Hernán
    The relationship between income inequality and crime has attracted the interest of many researchers, but little convincing evidence exists on the causal effect of inequality on crime in developing countries. This paper estimates this effect in a unique context: Mexico's Drug War. The analysis takes advantage of a unique data set containing inequality and crime statistics for more than 2,000 Mexican municipalities covering a period of 20 years. Using an instrumental variable for inequality that tackles problems of reverse causality and omitted variable bias, this paper finds that an increment of one point in the Gini coefficient translates into an increase of more than 10 drug-related homicides per 100,000 inhabitants between 2006 and 2010. There are no significant effects before 2005. The fact that the effect was found during Mexico's Drug War and not before is likely because the cost of crime decreased with the proliferation of gangs (facilitating access to knowledge and logistics, lowering the marginal cost of criminal behavior), which, combined with rising inequality, increased the expected net benefit from criminal acts after 2005.
  • Publication
    Is Uruguay More Resilient This Time? Distributional Impacts of a Crisis Similar to the 2001/02 Argentine Crisis
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04) Cabanillas, Oscar Barriga; Lugo, Maria Ana; Nielsen, Hannah; Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos; Zanetti, Maria Pia
    The 2001/02 Argentine crisis had a profound impact on Uruguay's economy. Uruguay's gross domestic product shrank by 17.5 percent and the proportion of people living below the poverty line doubled in just two years. It took almost 10 years for the poverty rate to recover to its pre-crisis level. This paper uses a macro-micro simulation technique to simulate the impact of a similar crisis on the current Uruguayan economy. The simulation exercise suggests that Uruguay would now be in a better place to weather such a severe crisis. The impact on poverty would be considerably lower, inequality would not change significantly, and household incomes would be 8 percent lower than in the absence of a crisis (almost 9 percent lower for those households in the bottom 40 percent of the income distribution). Young individuals, female-headed households, those living in Montevideo, and those who do not have complete secondary education are more vulnerable to falling into poverty were the crisis to strike.
  • Publication
    Poverty Convergence in a Time of Stagnation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2019-10) Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo; Lopez-Calva, Luis F.; Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos
    This paper exploits a novel municipal-level data set to explore patterns of convergence in income and poverty in Mexico during 1992-2014. The paper finds that, despite a context of overall stagnant economic growth and poverty reduction, there is evidence of income and poverty convergence at the municipal level. The findings suggest that these convergence processes stem from a combination of considerable positive performance among the poorest municipalities and stagnant and deteriorating performance among richer municipalities. Re distributive programs, such as federal transfers to poor municipalities and cash transfers to poor households, seem to have played an important role in driving these results by bolstering income growth among the poorest municipalities, while also inducing progressive changes in the distribution of income.
  • Publication
    Pro-Growth Equity
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-11) Lopez-Calva, Luis F.; Rodríguez-Castelán, Carlos
    Growth is an important channel for poverty reduction. Policies to make growth more "inclusive" have permeated the development debate and "pro-poor growth" has been the subject of a wide range of papers in the literature, including issues related to measurement, modeling, and policy. However, the analytical and particularly empirical literature to support the idea that equity-enhancing policies have a positive effect on growth is more scarce and limited, especially on the potential policy links. This paper proposes a simple conceptual framework to identify the main elements that contribute to the income generation of households, building on the notion that growth can be seen partly as the aggregate outcome of the income generation capacity of households. The framework relies on an asset-based approach, and offers insights on how a more equitable distribution of assets and opportunities for their productive use can feed back into higher growth in the long term. Using this framework, the paper links the World Bank's twin goals to specific policy channels that have direct impacts on the income generation capacity of households, with a particular focus on households at the bottom of the income distribution. The four key policy channels include (i) implementing equitable, efficient and sustainable fiscal policy and macroeconomic management, (ii) strengthening fair and transparent institutions capable of delivering quality basic services, (iii) enabling well-functioning markets, and (iv) establishing adequate risk management instruments at the macro and household levels.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21) World Bank
    This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, January 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16) World Bank
    Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10) World Bank
    The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.
  • Publication
    Rising to the Challenge
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-31) World Bank
    About 1.2 billion people - one in five people in the world – are at high risk from climate-related hazards, but much can be done to make people, business, communities, and countries more resilient. The new World Bank flagship report “Rising to the Challenge” argues that reducing climate and disaster impacts requires a combination of more rapid development, more resilient development, and targeted adaptation interventions. Development plays a key role as nobody can be resilient without access to basic infrastructure and social services, decent housing, or while living in poverty. While a 10-percent increase in income is associated with a decrease in the population at high risk by close to 100 million people, current development patterns will not be enough. An assessment of 44 countries shows that, in spite of growing attention and adaptation planning, most countries are still lagging in implementing resilience interventions, especially those related to policies and macro-fiscal dimensions, and in the monitoring and evaluation of their actions. However, the report dispels the idea that no progress is being done: a collection of case studies - with firms, governments, and public-private partnerships - shows that the private and public actors are undertaking promising adaptation and resilience efforts with measurable results and good practices that can replicated to scale up action and to build resilience for all.