Publication: Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2023: The Normalization of Crisis Is No Road for Stabilization
Loading...
Files in English
138 downloads
Other Files
36 downloads
48 downloads
Published
2023-05-15
ISSN
Date
2023-05-16
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
The systemic failure of Lebanon’s banking system and the collapse of the currency have resulted in a large, dollarized cash-based economy, worth an estimated US$9.86 billion or 45.7 percent of GDP in 2022 (Special Focus: Gauging the Size of the Cash Economy in Lebanon). A pervasive and growing dollarized cash economy is a major impediment to Lebanon’s economic recovery. It not only threatens to compromise the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy, but also heightens the risk of money laundering, increases informality, and prompts further tax evasion. Moreover, the increasing reliance on cash transactions also threatens to completely reverse the progress that Lebanon made pre-crisis towards enhancing its financial integrity by instituting robust anti-money laundering mechanisms in its commercial banking sector.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“World Bank. 2023. Lebanon Economic Monitor, Spring 2023: The Normalization of Crisis Is No Road for Stabilization. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/39814 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Algeria Economic Monitor, Spring 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-03-31)This Algeria Economic Monitor provides an update on key recent economic developments and policies. It places them in a longer-term and global context and assesses the implications these developments and changes in policies have on the outlook for Algeria. This Monitor’s coverageranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Algeria. The report is divided into four chapters. Chapter 1 presents the country’s macroeconomic developments in 2020 and early 2021. Chapter 2 presents the short- to medium-term outlook for the Algerian economy. Chapter 3 details the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequality in Algeria based on evidence across the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Finally, Chapter 4 looks at the key challenges in the country’s health sector as the COVID-19 pandemic eases. The cut-off date for data and forecasting is June 11, 2021.Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Spring 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-09)Tunisia’s already modest economic recovery almosthalted in 2023, amidst a severe drought, tight financingconditions and the modest pace of implementingreforms. With this slowdown, the Tunisian economy in2023 was still below its pre-Covid level, marking oneof the slowest recoveries in the Middle East and NorthAfrican region. Agriculture was the main driver of the2023 economic slowdown, declining by 11 percent asthe drought forced the government to introduce irrigationrestrictions. This highlights the urgency for Tunisiato adapt to climate change. The weak domesticdemand and the fiscal consolidation appear to haveadded to the drought-related losses, with the declinesin construction and commerce sectors offsetting someof the gains from export markets, particularly tourism.The growth slowdown–especially in labor-intensivesectors–translated into higher unemployment andlower labor force participation.Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Spring 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-04)The Tunisian economy grew by 1.4 percent in 2024 after the zero growth in 2023 and it is diverging from its neighbors in North Africa, with a gross domestic product (GDP) below its pre-Covid level in 2024. The economy continues to operate in a challenging policy and financing environment, including regulatory barriers to investment, which is not conducive to robust and sustained growth. The limited recovery of agriculture - with rising rainfall levels but still below historical averages - along with the moderate performance of oil and gas, manufacturing and construction sectors dragged the growth of the economy in 2024. This modest recovery continued to weigh on the labor market. The unemployment rate in 2024 was almost a percentage point above its pre-Covid, and the labor force participation rate hovered 1.2 percentage point below the pre-Covid rate. Expanding affordable and quality childcare services and strengthening parental leaves can raise labor force participation, particularly for women in Tunisia, with potentially significant impacts on economic growth. The current account deficit continued to moderate, easing some of the pressure on external financing. The trade deficit widened by 10.9 percent in 2024, remaining stable as a share of GDP at 11.4 percent. The deficit deteriorated further in the first quarter of 2025, as it increased by two thirds compared to the same period in 2024, driven by a 5.9 percent decline in exports. The surge in agricultural exports compensated for the deterioration of the trade balance of garments and mechanic industries in 2024. The energy deficit widened further on the back of rising import prices, continuing to account for the bulk of the merchandise trade deficit. The stability of the trade deficit and the increase in the services surplus reduced the current account deficit (CAD) to 1.7 percent of GDP in 2024, compared with 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2023 and 8.8 per cent in 2022. While the lower CAD eases the pressure on external financing needs, the latter remains significant especially due to the burdensome debt service.Publication Tunisia Economic Monitor, Fall 2023: Migration Amid a Challenging Economic Context(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-12-04)Migration will likely become increasingly important for Tunisia in terms of both inflows and outflows, given the demographic transition in both Tunisia and Europe. As such Tunisia can work (also with partner countries) to maximize the benefits of migration. As a country of mainly emigration, Tunisia could help strengthen the match of its emigrants with the demand abroad, including through enhanced cooperation with destination countries. Such cooperation should include focusing international assistance towards development objectives in Tunisia. Based on available evidence, increasing household incomes will contribute to reducing the propensity to consider emigrating through irregular channels. As its importance as a destination country (hence migrants who want to settle in Tunisia) is likely to increase, Tunisia can also enhance the economic benefits from immigrants by facilitating migrants’ regular status and streamlining the recognition of their qualifications, which has been identified as one of the key aspects for the successful implementation of bilateral mobility agreements involving skill partnerships.Publication Lebanon Economic Monitor, Fall 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-01-24)The scale and scope of Lebanon’s deliberate depression are leading to the disintegration of key pillars of Lebanon’s post-civil war political economy. Monetary and financial turmoil along with surging inflation continue to drive crisis conditions. Public finances improved in 2021 as spending collapsed faster than revenue. Lebanon urgently needs to adopt and implement a credible, comprehensive, equitable reform plan if it is to avoid a complete destruction of its social and economic networks and immediately stop irreversible loss of human capital.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-06-06)Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-01-10)Global growth is projected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs, and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.Publication Good Practice Note on Dam Safety(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-10)The objective of this good practice note (GPN) on dam safety is to provide additional guidance to World Bank staff on the application of relevant requirements under the environmental and social framework (ESF). This GPN provides guidance on using a risk management approach to the application of the dam safety requirements. The guidance contained in this note is designed to enhance the quality of practice without creating new requirements for the application of the ESF. The GPN provides guidance on compliance requirements, a risk management approach to dam safety, risk analysis tools, quality of information and capacity, application to World Bank operations, and procedural aspects. The GPN pertains to: (a) construction of new dams or dams under construction (DUC) under investment project financing (IPF); (b) rehabilitation of existing dams under IPF; and (c) existing dams or DUC that are not financed under IPF, on which the project relies or may rely.Publication Digital Africa(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13)All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.Publication Green Technologies: Decarbonizing Development in East Asia and Pacific(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-19)The East Asia and Pacific region is helping the world decarbonize and is encouraging the domestic adoption of renewables. But there is an imbalance: while the region’s innovation and investment improve global access to green technologies, its own emissions continue to grow because of the reluctance to penalize carbon-intensive practices. The disparity between domestic supply and demand spills over into international trade, provoking measures by other countries that limit access to markets and technologies. "Green Technologies: Decarbonizing Development in East Asia and Pacific" argues that deeper reform of the region’s own policies will encourage the domestic diffusion of cleaner technologies and may also foster greater international cooperation—on climate as well as on innovation and trade in green goods. The book proposes a framework to guide policy on green technology development and diffusion. It will be of interest to policy makers, businesses, and researchers working at the intersection of economics and environmental policy.