Publication: Climate Variability and Child Height in Rural Mexico
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Date
2011
ISSN
1873-6130 (Electronic)
1570-677X (Linking)
Published
2011
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Abstract
We examine the impacts of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days, a cumulative measure of temperature, more than a standard deviation from their respective long run mean, on the stature of children between 12 and 47 months of age in Mexico. We find that after a positive rainfall shock children are shorter regardless of their region or altitude. Negative temperature shocks have a negative impact on height in the central and southern parts of the country as well as in higher altitudes. Although on average there are no statistically significant impacts from positive temperature shocks, certain sub-populations - namely boys, children between 12 and 23 months at the time of measurement, and children of less educated mothers - in some of the regions are negatively impacted. The results also suggest that potentially both agricultural income and communicable disease prevalence contribute to the effects.
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Publication The Impacts of Climate Variability on Welfare in Rural Mexico(2011-02-01)This paper examines the impacts of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days more than a standard deviation from their respective long-run means, on household consumption per capita and child height-for-age. The results reveal that the current risk-coping mechanisms are not effective in protecting these two dimensions of welfare from erratic weather patterns. These findings imply that the change in the patterns of climatic variability associated with climate change is likely to reduce the effectiveness of the current coping mechanisms even more and thus increase household vulnerability further. The results reveal that weather shocks have substantial (negative as well as positive) effects on welfare that vary across regions (North vs. Center and South) and socio-economic characteristics (education and gender). The heterogeneous impacts of climatic variability suggest that a "tailored" approach to designing programs aimed at decreasing the sensitivity and increasing the capacity of rural households to adapt to climate change in Mexico is likely to be more effective.Publication Disquiet on the Weather Front : The Welfare Impacts of Climatic Variability in the Rural Philippines(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08)Three recent rounds (2003, 2006, and 2009) of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey are matched to rainfall data from 43 rainfall stations in the Philippines to quantify the extent to which unusual weather has any negative effects on the consumption of Filipino households. It is found that negative rainfall shocks decrease consumption, in particular food consumption. Rainfall below one standard deviation of its long-run average causes food consumption to decrease by about 4 percent, when compared with rainfall within one standard deviation. Positive deviations above one standard deviation have a limited impact. Moreover, for households close to a highway or to a fixed-line phone, consumption appears to be fully protected from the impact of negative rainfall shocks.Publication Child Stature, Maternal Education, and Early Childhood Development(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-09)This paper uses Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys data from the Republic of Congo and São Tomé and PrÃncipe to study the relationships between child stature, mother's years of education, and indicators of early childhood development. The relationships are contrasted between two empirical approaches: the conventional approach whereby control variables are selected in an ad-hoc manner and the double machine-learning approach that employs data-driven methods to select controls from a much wider set of variables. Overall, the findings based on the preferable double machine-learning approach differ across the two countries depending on the measures of early childhood development and child stature (height-for-age Z-score and stunting) used in the analysis. Double machine-learning estimates for the Republic of Congo suggest that height-for-age Z-score and stunting have a direct causal effect on early childhood development. In contrast, for São Tomé and PrÃncipe, no relationship is found. Thus, country-specific policy advice based on the relationships observed from data in other countries may be quite risky, if not misleading. Double machine-learning provides a practical and feasible approach to reducing threats to internal validity to derive robust inferences based on observational data for evidence-based policy advice.Publication Rainfall Variability, Occupational Choice, and Welfare in Rural Bangladesh(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2012-07)This study investigates the choice of occupational focus versus diversification between household members in rural Bangladesh as an autonomous and proactive adaptation strategy against ex ante local rainfall variability risks. The analysis combines nationally representative household level survey data with historical climate variability information at the Upazila level. The authors note that flood prone Upazilas may face reduced risks from local rainfall variability as compared with non-flood prone Upazilas. They find that two members of the same household are less likely to be self-employed in agriculture if they live in an area with high local rainfall variability. However, the occupational diversification strategy comes at a cost to households in terms of consumption welfare. The paper considers the effects of three policy actions, providing access to credit, safety net, and market. Access to market appears to be more effective in reducing the likelihood of costly within-household occupational diversification as an ex ante climate risk-reducing strategy as compared with access to credit and safety net.Publication The Poverty Impacts of Cash and In-Kind Transfers : Experimental Evidence from Rural Mexico(Taylor and Francis, 2013-10-21)The unique experimental design of the Food Support Programme (Programa de Apoyo Alimentario) is used to analyse in-kind and cash transfers in the poor rural areas of southern states of Mexico. The intent-to-treat effect on poverty of cash transfers of real value 25 per cent less than the market value of in-kind transfers is identical to that of in-kind transfers. Potential explanations of this result are investigated by looking into the differences in impacts of in-kind and cash transfers on food consumption and non-food expenditures and on the allocation of family labour between agricultural and non-agricultural activities. Both in-kind and cash transfers have identically large positive impacts on food consumption. Non-food expenditures are also higher in the localities with cash transfers, whereas they remain unaffected in the localities with in-kind transfers. Both kinds of transfers have a significant impact on the time allocation of males (and not females) who switch from agricultural to non-agricultural activities. But, the availability of cash transfers has a significantly higher marginal effect than in-kind transfers on the shift towards non-agricultural activities. Overall, the findings suggest that cash transfers may be better able than in-kind transfers at mitigating the impact of market imperfections, thus increasing both equity and efficiency.
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