Person:
Skoufias, Emmanuel
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
labor and demographic economics; economics of nutrition; agricultural economics; applied econometrics; program evaluation
Degrees
External Links
Departments
Poverty Reduction and Equity Department, World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Emmanuel Skoufias is a Lead Economist at the World Bank working on poverty and distributional issues. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Minnesota and prior to joining the Bank he was faculty at the University of Colorado in Boulder and Pennsylvania State University, a Senior Researcher at the Inter-American Development Bank, and a Senior Research Fellowat the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) where he led the impact evaluation of the PROGRESA program of Mexico. Emmanuel has published papers in a variety of academic journals on the targeting of social programs, the impacts of transfer programs, child health and nutrition, the role of public transfers in redistributing income, land tenancy, regional welfare disparities, risk sharing, vulnerability, and the impacts of climate change on different dimensions of welfare. Currently he is co-leading the SecureNutrition Knowledge Platform that focuses on the linkages between agriculture, food security, and nutrition.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 57
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Monsoon Babies : Rainfall Shocks and Child Nutrition in Nepal
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-03)Do household consumption-smoothing strategies in poor countries entail significant long-run costs in terms of reduced human capital? This paper exploits the timing of monsoon rainfall shocks and the seasonal nature of agriculture to isolate income effects on early childhood anthropometric outcomes in rural Nepal and to provide evidence on the persistence of these effects into later childhood. Findings suggest that a 10 percent increase in rainfall from historic norms during the most recently completed monsoon leads to a 0.15 standard deviation increase in weight-for-age for children ages 0-36 months. This total impact consists of a negative "disease environment effect" of no more than 0.02 standard deviations and a positive "income effect" as high as 0.17 standard deviations. Consistent with this interpretation, excess monsoon rainfall also enhances child stature, but only if the monsoon rainfall shock is experienced in the second year of life. Moreover, this effect on child height is transitory, dissipating completely by age five. -
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Too Little Too Late : Welfare Impacts of Rainfall Shocks in Rural Indonesia
(Taylor and Francis, 2012-11-20)We use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impacts in rural Indonesia of two types of shock: a delay in monsoon onset; and a significant shortfall in rain during the 90-day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, we find that a delay in monsoon onset does not have a significant effect on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Such households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks, but at the expense of their non-food expenditure. We also use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the impact of this type of shock. We find that access to credit and public works projects has the strongest moderating effect. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies. -
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Food Quality, Calories, and Household Income
(Taylor and Francis, 2011-06-24)We investigate the relationship between calories, food quality and household per capita expenditure using regression and semiparametric methods on a sample of poor households from rural Mexico, where Programa de Apoyo Alimentario (PAL), a targeted nutritional programme, is operating. The semiparametric method yields an estimate of the elasticity between calories and expenditure of 0.39 below the median and 0.28 above. The corresponding estimates of the elasticity of the calorie price are 0.48 below the median and 0.45 above. We also examine the extent to which the expenditure elasticity of the calorie price is explained by substitution between and within major food groups. We find that there is a very high incidence of substitution within cereals (especially for poor households) and that between group substitution explains at most 59% of the income elasticity for food quality. These estimates suggest that the potential of a cash transfer programme to have a positive impact on the food diversity and the nutritional status of households is quite limited. -
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An Evaluation of the Performance of Regression Discontinuity Design on PROGRESA
(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-09)While providing the most reliable method of evaluating social programs, randomized experiments in developing and developed countries alike are accompanied by political risks and ethical issues that jeopardize the chances of adopting them. In this paper the authors use a unique data set from rural Mexico collected for the purposes of evaluating the impact of the PROGRESA poverty alleviation program to examine the performance of a quasi-experimental estimator, the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Using as a benchmark the impact estimates based on the experimental nature of the sample, we examine how estimates differ when we use the RDD as the estimator for evaluating program impact on two key indicators: child school attendance and child work. Overall the performance of the RDD was remarkably good. The RDD estimates of program impact agreed with the experimental estimates in 10 out of the 12 possible cases. The two cases in which the RDD method failed to reveal any significant program impact on the school attendance of boys and girls were in the first year of the program (round 3). RDD estimates comparable to the experimental estimates were obtained when we used as a comparison group children from non-eligible households in the control localities. -
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Expanding Microfinance in Brazil : Credit Utilization and Performance of Small Firms
(Taylor and Francis, 2013-06-18)We take advantage of the natural experiment generated by the exogenous change in government policy towards microcredit to evaluate the impact of the increased supply of microcredit on the utilisation of credit by micro-entrepreneurs. Based on micro-entrepreneurs' survey and administrative data from a microcredit programme in Brazil, we show that: the increased supply of microcredit raised formal credit utilisation and this does not crowd out the use of informal credit sources; formal credit taking improves business performance; and returns are larger for women- than for men-owned firms, but males employ significantly more workers after taking formal credit than females. -
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Geographic Disparities in Well-Being and Fiscal Expenditures in Thailand : 2000 vs. 2009
(Taylor and Francis, 2013-06-09)This article investigates (1) the extent to which the differences in the standard of living between regions in Thailand are due to differences in the returns to characteristics or differences in the characteristics themselves; and (2) whether the current allocation of fiscal expenditures by the central authorities is related to the main determinants of spatial disparities in welfare among the provinces. The analysis reveals that the lower level of welfare in the rural areas within any given region is primarily because of differences in characteristics of the population in rural vs. urban areas. Differences in returns generally account for the most part of the welfare differences between urban areas of different regions and Bangkok or rural areas of other regions compared with the rural northeast. The analysis of fiscal expenditures and their relation to welfare disparities suggests that there are many opportunities to improve the role of fiscal expenditure allocation by the central government as an instrument of addressing the needs of the provinces in terms of low returns. -
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Shorter, Cheaper, Quicker, Better : Linking Measures of Household Food Security to Nutritional Outcomes in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, Uganda, and Tanzania
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08)Using nationally representative household survey data from five countries -- three from South Asia (Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal) and two from Sub-Saharan Africa (Tanzania and Uganda) -- this paper conducts a systematic assessment of the correlation between various measures of household food security and nutritional outcomes of children. The analysis, following the universally accepted and applied definition of food security, is based on some of the most commonly used indicators of food security. The results show that the various measures of household food security do appear to carry significant signals about the nutritional status of children that reside within the household. This result holds even after the analysis controls for a wide array of other socio-economic characteristics of the households that are generally also thought to be associated with the quality of child nutrition. If using these food security indicators as proxy measures for the underlying nutritional status of children is of some interest, then the results show that simple, cost-effective, and easy-to-collect measures, such as the food consumption score or the dietary diversity score, may carry at least as much information as other measures, such as per capita expenditure or the starchy staple ratio, which require longer and costlier surveys with detailed food consumption modules. Across five different countries in South Asia and Africa, the results suggest that the food consumption score, in particular, performs extremely well in comparison with all other measures from the perspective of nutritional targeting as well as for monitoring nutritional outcomes. -
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Disquiet on the Weather Front : The Welfare Impacts of Climatic Variability in the Rural Philippines
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08)Three recent rounds (2003, 2006, and 2009) of the Family Income and Expenditure Survey are matched to rainfall data from 43 rainfall stations in the Philippines to quantify the extent to which unusual weather has any negative effects on the consumption of Filipino households. It is found that negative rainfall shocks decrease consumption, in particular food consumption. Rainfall below one standard deviation of its long-run average causes food consumption to decrease by about 4 percent, when compared with rainfall within one standard deviation. Positive deviations above one standard deviation have a limited impact. Moreover, for households close to a highway or to a fixed-line phone, consumption appears to be fully protected from the impact of negative rainfall shocks. -
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The Poverty Impacts of Cash and In-Kind Transfers : Experimental Evidence from Rural Mexico
(Taylor and Francis, 2013-10-21)The unique experimental design of the Food Support Programme (Programa de Apoyo Alimentario) is used to analyse in-kind and cash transfers in the poor rural areas of southern states of Mexico. The intent-to-treat effect on poverty of cash transfers of real value 25 per cent less than the market value of in-kind transfers is identical to that of in-kind transfers. Potential explanations of this result are investigated by looking into the differences in impacts of in-kind and cash transfers on food consumption and non-food expenditures and on the allocation of family labour between agricultural and non-agricultural activities. Both in-kind and cash transfers have identically large positive impacts on food consumption. Non-food expenditures are also higher in the localities with cash transfers, whereas they remain unaffected in the localities with in-kind transfers. Both kinds of transfers have a significant impact on the time allocation of males (and not females) who switch from agricultural to non-agricultural activities. But, the availability of cash transfers has a significantly higher marginal effect than in-kind transfers on the shift towards non-agricultural activities. Overall, the findings suggest that cash transfers may be better able than in-kind transfers at mitigating the impact of market imperfections, thus increasing both equity and efficiency. -
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Climate Variability and Child Height in Rural Mexico
( 2011)We examine the impacts of weather shocks, defined as rainfall or growing degree days, a cumulative measure of temperature, more than a standard deviation from their respective long run mean, on the stature of children between 12 and 47 months of age in Mexico. We find that after a positive rainfall shock children are shorter regardless of their region or altitude. Negative temperature shocks have a negative impact on height in the central and southern parts of the country as well as in higher altitudes. Although on average there are no statistically significant impacts from positive temperature shocks, certain sub-populations - namely boys, children between 12 and 23 months at the time of measurement, and children of less educated mothers - in some of the regions are negatively impacted. The results also suggest that potentially both agricultural income and communicable disease prevalence contribute to the effects.