Publication: Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees
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2020-05
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2020-05
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Central to making good decisions about debt guarantees is assessing their expected and possible fiscal cost, a task that many governments still struggle with. This paper therefore describes a relatively simple scenario analysis method for estimating potential payments from the government when a beneficiary faces difficulty with debt payments. The basic version of the approach estimates the payments in a given scenario to inform risk management decisions. The paper then extends the method for situations where more rigor is required or where the economic guarantee fee is to be estimated. The final part of the paper extends the method to assess the combined loss of multiple guarantees when simultaneously subjected to negative economic conditions.
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“Razlog, Lilia; Marrison, Chris; Irwin, Tim. 2020. Scenario Analysis Tool for Assessment and Monitoring of Government Guarantees. MTI Discussion Paper;No. 21. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33812 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
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