Publication:
Iraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2021: Seizing the Opportunity for Reforms and Managing Volatility

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dc.contributor.authorWorld Bank
dc.date.accessioned2021-06-01T20:37:25Z
dc.date.available2021-06-01T20:37:25Z
dc.date.issued2021-05
dc.description.abstractRecognizing the severity of the crisis, the GoI devised a national reform plan (the white paper) that sets out a old blueprint of structural reforms to achieve sustainable medium-term growth through economic diversification and boosting private sector growth and private sector job creation. The GoI has also devised an implementation and governance framework for the white paper in which it proposed a detailed reform matrix and launched a High Reform Council headed by the Prime Minister to accompany the implementation. Actions have already been realized starting with the reforms adopted in the 2021 budget law and other areas including in the business environment and the financial sector. The ultimate success of the reforms though depends on the political will and public support to implement the proposed measures and lead the country out of a long-standing fragility trap. Iraq's economic outlook hinges on global oil markets prospects, the implementation of the white paper reforms, and on the evolution of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The economy is forecast to gradually recover on the back of rising oil prices and rising OPEC+ production quotas. GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2021 and 6.3 percent on average over the subsequent two years (Table 1). Non-oil GDP is forecast to recover in 2021, growing by 5.5 percent before converging to historically low potential growth trend in 2022–23. The currency devaluation is estimated to push inflation to 8.5 percent in 2021 due to limited capacity for import substitution. This will present an additional pressure on Iraqi households' wellbeing. The fiscal stance remains expansionary with only limited reform measures being included in the 2021 budget law after an extended deliberation in the Parliament. Higher oil revenues in tandem with the devaluation effect on those receipts are projected to narrow the fiscal deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021. Financing needs are forecast to remain elevated compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, averaging at 13.7 billion Dollars per year (7.5 percent of GDP) in the outlook period (2021–2023). The 2021 approved budget includes limited reforms such as new consumption taxes and better targeting of PDS transfers which are in line with the GoI white paper. If implemented they could help moderate the fiscal deficit and exchange rate pressures. However, more structural issues such as public wages and pension rigidities remain unaddressed.en
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/552761621369308685/Iraq-Economic-Monitor-Seizing-the-Opportunity-for-Reforms-and-Managing-Volatility
dc.identifier.doi10.1596/35625
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/35625
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rights.holderWorld Bank
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectFISCAL TRENDS
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectOIL AND GASS
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SECTOR
dc.subjectECONOMIC OUTLOOK
dc.subjectRISKS
dc.subjectFEMALE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectSOCIAL NORMS
dc.subjectGENDER GAP
dc.subjectCOVID-19
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.subjectPANDEMIC IMPACT
dc.subjectMASHREQ GENDER FACILITY
dc.titleIraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2021en
dc.title.subtitleSeizing the Opportunity for Reforms and Managing Volatilityen
dc.typeReporten
dc.typeRapportfr
dc.typeInformees
dspace.entity.typePublication
okr.crossref.titleIraq Economic Monitor, Spring 2021
okr.date.disclosure2021-05-27
okr.date.doiregistration2025-05-07T12:09:28.646606Z
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work
okr.doctypeEconomic & Sector Work::Economic Updates and Modeling
okr.docurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/552761621369308685/Iraq-Economic-Monitor-Seizing-the-Opportunity-for-Reforms-and-Managing-Volatility
okr.guid552761621369308685
okr.identifier.externaldocumentum090224b0885e946d_2_0
okr.identifier.internaldocumentum33088074
okr.identifier.report159112
okr.importedtrueen
okr.language.supporteden
okr.pdfurlhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/552761621369308685/pdf/Iraq-Economic-Monitor-Seizing-the-Opportunity-for-Reforms-and-Managing-Volatility.pdfen
okr.region.administrativeMiddle East and North Africa
okr.region.countryIraq
okr.topicGender::Gender and Development
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Business Cycles and Stabilization Policies
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Economic Growth
okr.topicMacroeconomics and Economic Growth::Fiscal & Monetary Policy
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Employment and Shared Growth
okr.topicPoverty Reduction::Inequality
okr.topicRural Development::Rural Labor Markets
okr.topicSocial Protections and Labor::Labor Markets
okr.unitEFI-MNA-MTI-MacroFiscal-1 (EMNM1)
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