Publication: 2023 Food security monitoring in Papua New Guinea - Insights from high frequency phone surveys: April to September 2023
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2024-05-06
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2024-05-06
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The objective of the Pacific Observatory is to improve welfare for the poor and vulnerable in Papua New Guinea and the Pacific Island Countries through expanding socio-economic information for better data-driven policymaking.
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“World Bank. 2024. 2023 Food security monitoring in Papua New Guinea - Insights from high frequency phone surveys: April to September 2023. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/41511 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO.”
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Publication Insights from High Frequency Phone Surveys in Tonga(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-06)The development objective of the Pacific Observatory is to improve welfare for the poor and vulnerable in Papua New Guinea and the Pacific Island Countries throughexpanding socio-economic information for better data-driven policymaking.Publication Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19, December 2020 to January 2021(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021)This joint report by the World Bank and United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) Papua New Guinea (PNG) presents the findings from two mobile phone surveys conducted in December 2020 and January 2021 in PNG. The World Bank survey, conducted in December 2020, was the second in a series. The UNICEF survey, conducted in January 2021, targeted re-contacting all 2,534 households from the World Bank round 2 survey with children under the age of 15, and achieved a final sample of 2,449. These results were also weighted using information from the demographic and health survey (DHS) to develop representative estimates for households with children under 15, 79.8 percent according to the DHS. The UNICEF survey included sections on household impacts as well as on the children living within the household. Compared to the rest of the country, markedly higher shares of respondents in the NCD noted deteriorations since June in situations related to theft, alcohol, and drug abuse, intimidation by police, violence by police, and domestic abuse, as well as higher declines in overall community trust, which can be an indicator of rising tensions. In addition, there were potential warning signs of the impacts of the prolonged crisis on children, with more than one-third of children exhibiting negative behavioral changes in the previous 15 days - though again a lack of baseline data limits the ability to establish a causal link specifically with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Publication Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-06)Papua New Guinea (PNG) is the largest country in the Pacific region, and one of the most diverse countries in the world. The key development challenge in this lower-middle income country is how to translate macroeconomic gains from the resource sector into better opportunities and services for PNG’s largely poor and rural populations. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has compounded issues for an already weakening economic situation. A strong evidence base is needed to understand the socioeconomic implications of the coronavirus pandemic for Papua New Guinea. Data is needed to inform the policy response to the coronavirus crisis. To monitor and assess the socio-economic impacts of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Papua New Guinea, five rounds of High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) have been planned and will be conducted quarterly. Data collection began in late June 2020. This report presents the findings from round one and concludes with a policy section to help inform an evidence-based response to Coronavirus (COVID-19) in Papua New Guinea.Publication Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2021-07-01)This joint report by the World Bank and UNICEF-PNG presents the findings from two mobile phone surveys conducted in May, June and July 2021 in Papua New Guinea. The first survey, conducted in May and June, was the third in a series, with the first round being completed in June and July 2020 and the second round being conducted in December 2020. This survey interviewed a total of 2,533 respondents about the impact of COVID-19 on their economic activity and the results were weighted using information from the 2016–2018 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to reflect nationally representative estimates of the socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19. The second survey, conducted in June and July 2021, interviewed a total of 2,541 respondents (1880 of whom were from the first survey) about the impact of COVID-19 on a range of areas that broadly can be considered human development. These results were also weighted using information from the DHS to develop representative estimates. The report uses data that predates the arrival of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in PNG and therefore should be considered a snapshot of changes in economic activity and human development from January to June 2021. The next round of data collection is currently planned to start in November 2021 and thatsurvey will shed light on the impact of the Delta variant of COVID-19 in PNG. The surveys in this report show that in general there were similar levels of economic activity and human development in mid-2021 as the start of 2021, however the surveys do not demonstrate a recovery to pre-pandemic levels. There was stabilization across a range of indicators, including levels of employment, access to education and healthcare as well as public trust and security. However, there was some variation across regions and wealth quintiles. The lack of deterioration of conditions since the start of 2021 is notable given that over this period there was a rapid escalationof the COVID-19 crisis in March followed by a fall in COVID-19 cases throughout May.Publication Machine Learning Imputation of High Frequency Price Surveys in Papua New Guinea(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023-09-28)Capabilities to track fast-moving economic developments re-main limited in many regions of the developing world. This complicates prioritizing policies aimed at supporting vulnerable populations. To gain insight into the evolution of fluid events in a data scarce context, this paper explores the ability of recent machine-learning advances to produce continuous data in near-real-time by imputing multiple entries in ongoing surveys. The paper attempts to track inflation in fresh produce prices at the local market level in Papua New Guinea, relying only on incomplete and intermittent survey data. This application is made challenging by high intra-month price volatility, low cross-market price correlations, and weak price trends. The modeling approach uses chained equations to produce an ensemble prediction for multiple price quotes simultaneously. The paper runs cross-validation of the prediction strategy under different designs in terms of markets, foods, and time periods covered. The results show that when the survey is well-designed, imputations can achieve accuracy that is attractive when compared to costly–and logistically often infeasible–direct measurement. The methods have wider applicability and could help to fill crucial data gaps in data scarce regions such as the Pacific Islands, especially in conjunction with specifically designed continuous surveys.
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