The Pacific Observatory 2023 Food security monitoring in Papua New Guinea Insights from high frequency phone surveys April to September 2023 The Pacific Observatory-a World Bank initiative to increase data availability and quality and to promote evidence-based policymaking. The objective of the Pacific Observatory is… The Pacific To improve welfare for the poor and vulnerable in Papua Key findings New Guinea and the Pacific Island Countries through Observatory in expanding socio-economic information for better data-driven policymaking. PNG This presentation utilizes data from the Pacific Observatory’s high frequency phone surveys in PNG… To detail household indicators related to: - Availability of staples - Food consumption score - Agricultural production expectations - Food insecurity Food consumption patterns There are some early signs that nascent drought in 2023 may be accompanied by deteriorating dietary diversity. Ongoing monitoring in 2024 will be important. Food insecurity Key No improvement or deterioration is observed in food insecurity across Q2 and Q3 2023. Findings Agricultural production expectations Stable harvest expectations across Q2-Q3 2023 with few households expecting a worse harvest. But for this minority, rain variability is a growing problem. From Q2-Q3 2023, 9% of Food Consumption Score - Rural rural households had a % of households deterioration in food 79.8% 70.5% consumption 19.0% 25.7% Q2 Q3 The adequacy of household food Poor Borderline Acceptable consumption can be measured by the food consumption score (FCS*). Food Consumption Score - Urban Fewer rural households with an % of households “acceptable” FCS and more rural 95.0% 94.0% households with a “borderline” FCS across 2023. FCS was stable in urban areas. 4.6% 4.6% Q2 Q3 *Note: The FCS, developed by the World Food Program, Poor Borderline Acceptable captures dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Q2-Q3 2023. and the relative nutritional value of different food groups Consumption of Vitamin-A rich foods, iron-rich foods, and protein rich foods dipped in Q3 2023 Most households consumed There was a 50 percent drop in Few households (only 14 percent in Vitamin-A-rich foods at least 7 households consuming protein rich Q2 2023) consumed iron-rich foods times foods at least 7 times a week at least 7 times a week Frequency consumption of Vitamin-A Frequency consumption of Protein Frequency consumption of Iron rich rich foods by FCS rich foods by FCS foods by FCS 100% 100% 100% 20.4% 14.1% 80% 80% 40.4% 80% % of households 60.9% % of households 60% 77.1% 60% 60% % of households 88.8% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% 0% 0% Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Consumed at least 7 times Consumed at least 7 times Consumed at least 7 times Consumed sometimes Consumed sometimes Consumed sometimes Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Q2-Q3 2023. Q2-Q3 2023. Q2-Q3 2023. Across most dimensions and for most households, food insecurity is stable across Q2 and Q3 2023. Food Insecurity Experience Scale Questions, % households responding yes (past 30 days) 51% 48% 49% 45% 43% 40% 37% 33% 31% 30% 29% 28% 25% 25% 11% 5% Worried about Unable to eat Few foods Skip meals Ate less Ran out Hungry Whole day no food food healthy food Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Q2-Q3 2023. Stable harvest expectations for the next growing season for commonly grown crops… Of agricultural households, Of agricultural households, Of agricultural households, 55.1% grow sweet potato 44.4% grow bananas 28.3% grow taro Expectations about Kumara Expectations about Banana Expectations about Taro 100% 100% 100% 80% 80% 80% % of households % of households % of households 60% 60% 60% 40% 40% 40% 20% 20% 20% 0% 0% Q2 Q3 0% Q2 Q3 Already harvested Worse than usual Q2 Q3 Already harvested Worse than usual Remained same Better than usual Already harvested Worse than usual Remained same Better than usual Remained same Better than usual Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Q2-Q3 2023. Q2-Q3 2023. Q2-Q3 2023. …but a growing impact of rain variability for households that expect a worse harvest Out of the households that expected a ‘worse than usual’ harvest for Kumara, ‘too little rain’ was the reason listed by 7% of households in Q2 which increased to 40% in Q3. Similarly, for banana or taro, there was an increase in reports of ‘too little rain’ and ‘too much rain’. Reasons for sweet potato ‘worse than usual’ Reasons for banana ‘worse than usual’ harvest harvest 46.2% % of households expecting ‘worse than % of households expecting a ‘worse 37.3% 34.3% than usual’ Kumara cultivation 28.4% usual’ Banana cultivation 25.2% 27.6% 25.6% 20.5% 20.4% 21.5% 18.3% 18.1% 16.3% 15.3% 11.2% 11.5% 6.5% 5.8% 5.6% 1.5% Too little Too much Other Crop disease Other Too little rain Too much rain Other weather Crop disease Other reasons rain rain weather reasons events events Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Q2-Q3 2023. Source: World Bank high-frequency phone surveys, Q2-Q3 2023. Note: N(Q2)=39, N(Q3)=86 Note: N(Q2)=33, N(Q3)=84 Acknowledgments and further information Core Team: Ritika Khandelwal, Elene Metreveli, Darian Naidoo* Extended team: Darcey Johnson, Lachlan Bruce, Kexin Zhang, Dung Doan Pacific Observatory Task Team Leaders: William Seitz and David Gould Practice Manager: Rinku Murgai *For enquiries, please contact Darian Naidoo (dnaidoo@worldbank.org) The team gratefully acknowledges the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for financing the data collection and analysis References World Bank. 2020. Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19 : Results from Round 1. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34907 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. World Bank; UNICEF. 2021. Papua New Guinea High Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19, December 2020 to January 2021. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35585 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. World Bank. 2022. COVID-19 in Papua New Guinea: Economic and Social Impacts - Insights from the Fifth Round of High Frequency Phone Surveys. © Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38272 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. Annex: survey methods Data was collected using a phone interview Proportion of respondents matching the survey in 2022 and in 2023, implemented by asset index deciles of the Demographic Digicel in Port Moresby. The typical interview Collection dates and sample sizes and Health Survey duration was 20-35 minutes per call. 20 share of observations (unweighted %) 18 The 2023 Q1 data collection was from a list of Household 16 Date collected 10,000 randomly selected numbers of Digicel sample size 14 subscribers that had less than 20 Kina of credit 12 Round 5 June 2022 2,630 upload in a three-month period prior to the 10 survey. The 2023 Q2 data collection sought to re- January 2023 – 8 2023 Q1 1,675 contact all households from 2023 Q1, plus 10,000 March 2023 6 replacement numbers. The 2023 Q3 collection 4 followed the same method as 2023 Q1. 2023 Q2 April 2023 – July 2023 1,686 2 0 July 2023 – October 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Geographic quotas were used. It was not 2023 Q3 2023 1,647 possible to obtain a sample that was even across Q1-23 Q2-23 the wealth distribution and demographic groups Q3-23 (as some households are less likely to have Demographic and Health Survey 2016-2018 phones). Weights have been applied to increase Note: The yellow bars reflect that, if phone survey respondents perfectly their representation in the results presented. represented the wealth distribution, 10 percent of respondents would be from each wealth decile.