Publication: Back from the Brink : Thailand's Response to the 1997 Economic Crisis
Loading...
Published
2001-06
ISSN
Date
2013-06-17
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
This essay reviews the traumatic experience of Thailand's economy during 1997-1999, describes the policy response, and draws lessons for the future. Whereas the country's economic performance until 1996, was exemplary within the developing world - consistent growing, high gross domestic product rates, exports expansion, and in-flow of foreign capital - the financial downturn of 1997 gave way to a deep economic recession, which diminished asset values, and threatened to unleash large-scale unemployment. The book analyzes the crisis, highlighting the tension, and controversy that surrounded structural reform, and, describes the ongoing legal, regulatory, and institutional reforms - all designed to ensure prudent decision-making by Thai bankers, and corporations. The book concludes with an outline of the steps needed to complete the reform program, in a way that will consolidate the fragile economic recovery, and allow sustained growth. The economic history of the crisis - highlighted in Figure 1-1 - shows the movements of selected indicators of the economy, during this volatile period.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Nabi, Ijaz; Shivakumar, Jayasankar. 2001. Back from the Brink : Thailand's Response to the 1997 Economic Crisis. Directions in Development;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/13973 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018)The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.Publication An Investment Framework for Nutrition(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-12)The report estimates the costs, impacts and financing scenarios to achieve the World Health Assembly global nutrition targets for stunting, anemia in women, exclusive breastfeeding and the scaling up of the treatment of severe wasting among young children. To reach these four targets, the world needs $70 billion over 10 years to invest in high-impact nutrition-specific interventions. This investment would have enormous benefits: 65 million cases of stunting and 265 million cases of anemia in women would be prevented in 2025 as compared with the 2015 baseline. In addition, at least 91 million more children would be treated for severe wasting and 105 million additional babies would be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life over 10 years. Altogether, achieving these targets would avert at least 3.7 million child deaths. Every dollar invested in this package of interventions would yield between $4 and $35 in economic returns, making investing in early nutrition one of the best value-for-money development actions. Although some of the targets—especially those for reducing stunting in children and anemia in women—are ambitious and will require concerted efforts in financing, scale-up, and sustained commitment, recent experience from several countries suggests that meeting these targets is feasible. These investments in the critical 1000 day window of early childhood are inalienable and portable and will pay lifelong dividends – not only for children directly affected but also for us all in the form of more robust societies – that will drive future economies.Publication At a Crossroads(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-02)Higher education (HE) has expanded dramatically in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since 2000. While access became more equitable, quality concerns remain. This volume studies the expansion, as well as HE quality, variety and equity in LAC. It investigates the expansion’s demand and supply drivers, and outlines policy implications.Publication Options for Aged Care in China(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-11-20)China is aging at an unprecedented rate. Improvements in life expectancy and the consequences of the decades-old family planning policy have led to a rapid increase in the elderly population. According to the United Nations World Population Prospects, the proportion of older people age 65 and over will increase by about one-fourth by 2030, and the elderly will account for about one quarter of the total population by 2050. Population aging will not only pose challenges for elder care but also have an impact on the economy and all aspects of society (World Bank, 2016a). The government is aware of the need to develop an efficient and sustainable approach to aged care. To this end, the General Office of the State Council issued the 12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Aged Care Services in China and the Development Plan for a System of Social Services for the Aged (2011-2015). It is now in the process of formulating the 13th Five-Year National Plan on Aging, which will further elaborate and finalize the reform roadmap for 2016 to 2020. The Plan is expected to be finalized and launched by June 2016. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) helped draft these plans and is now leading the development of policy measures for the provision of social services for the elderly. This volume has been prepared to support the translation of the broad ideas on aged care provision expressed in the 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans and other government plans into reality and to help the government tackle the challenges described above. It strives to identify a policy framework that fits the Chinese context and can be put in place gradually. Specifically, it aims to provide an up-to-date understanding of the evolving aged care landscape in China; review international experiences in long-term care provision, financing, and quality assurance and assess their relevance to China’s current situation; discuss implications of current developments and trends for the future of aged care in China; and propose policy options based on available evidence and best practices.Publication Transforming Karachi into a Livable and Competitive Megacity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018-02-27)With a population of 16 million, Karachi is the largest megacity in Pakistan. Despite being a large city that is home to many, it has seen a substantial decline in quality of life and economic competitiveness in recent decades. Basic service delivery is very poor, with very low indicators for water supply, sanitation, public transport and public spaces. Pollution levels are high, and the city is vulnerable to disasters and climate change. A highly complex political economy, institutional fragmentation, land contestation, crime and security issues and social exclusion exacerbate these issues and make city management challenging. The Karachi City Diagnostic and Transformation Strategy attempts to present detailed data on the economy, livability and key urban services of the city, by identifying and quantifying the requirements to bridge the services gap in the city. It also proposes pathways towards the transformation of Karachi into a more livable, inclusive and economically competitive city by outlining policy actions that the city can undertake. The first part of the report provides an in-depth review of Karachi and is organized into three themes focused on key aspects of city management: (i) city growth and prosperity – discussing city economy, competitiveness, business environment and poverty; (ii) city livability – discussing urban and spatial planning, urban governance and municipal service delivery (water and sanitation, public transport and solid waste); and (iii) sustainability and inclusiveness – discussing the city’s long term resilience based on fiscal management, disaster resilience and climate change, and social inclusion. In each section, a diagnostic is provided on the issues, along with possible prioritized actions to resolve them. The second part of the report concludes by identifying four pillars for city transformation. These include: (i) building inclusive, coordinated and accountable institutions; (ii) greening Karachi for sustainability and resilience; (iii) leveraging on the city's economic, social and environmental assets; and (iv) creating a smart city through smart policies and technology.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Finance for Growth : Policy Choices in a Volatile World(Washington, DC: World Bank and Oxford University Press, 2001-04)The overall impact of financial globalization on the domestic financial sector is profound. Liberalization of capital flows has effectively made domestic financial repression obsolete. The consequences have not been uniformly favorable. Following liberalization, domestic interest rates in developing countries have moved to a premium over industrial country rates, and can surge at times of currency speculation. Heightened interest rate and exchange rate volatility pose practical risk management difficulties for financial intermediaries and reinforce the need for appropriate infrastructures and incentives for risk containment, as well as for good macropolicies. On the other hand, the cost of equity capital has been reduced by allowing foreign investor access to local equity markets and allowing local firms to list abroad. Increased international flows through the equity markets have not been the major contributor to increased international sources of volatility. In addition to opening access to foreign-sourced financial services, more and more countries have been permitting foreign-owned banks and other financial firms to operate locally. Although this can represent a threat to domestic owners of financial firms, the drawback is outweighed by improved service quality. On all three fronts--debt, equity, and services--the costs and risks as well as the benefits of increased financial globalization. knowledgesPublication Russian Economic Report, April 2015(Washington, DC, 2015-04)Russia's economy experienced two shocks in 2014. On top of the structural crisis that began in 2012, Russia had to deal with cyclical and idiosyncratic challenges to the economy. One of the new shocks illustrates Russia s integration into the world economy through its natural resource exports, and thus its dependence on the global commodity cycle: oil prices more than halved between July and December 2014, giving Russia a terms-of-trade shock. The ruble lost 46 percent of its value against the US dollar, which worsened already eroded business and consumer confidence. The monetary tightening in response made credit expensive, further dampening domestic demand. The other, more idiosyncratic, shock was related to the geopolitical tensions that began in March 2014 and led to economic sanctions. The tensions not only heightened perceptions that Russian investments had become riskier, they also dramatically increased the costs of external borrowing for Russian banks and firms. Spreads on Russian credit default swaps peaked in December at 578 basis points, compared to 159 a year ago. Together with the financial sanctions imposed on Russia in late July, which have restricted the access of Russia s largest state-connected banks and firms to Western international finance markets, this all but extinguished investment. The current World Bank baseline outlook, however, sees the national poverty rate increasing from 10.8 percent in 2013 to 14.2 percent in 2015 and 2016. Poverty is expected to increase because real disposable income and consumption will decline. This would be the first significant increase in poverty rates since the 1998-1999 crises. Russia weathered the 2008- 2009 crisis well as disposable incomes continued to grow slightly. Given the current limited fiscal space, additional support for the poor and vulnerable is likely to be less generous than it was during the 2008-2009 crisis. Although people at the bottom of the income distribution are the most vulnerable, there will be less opportunity for an increase in shared prosperity in 2015-2016, and there is a worrisome possibility that recent achievements might be reversed.Publication Thailand : Country Development Partnership for Competitiveness(Washington, DC, 2001-06-13)Competitiveness has emerged as a key issue confronting policymakers in Thailand. The Government's reform program will be extended by explicitly incorporating into the competitiveness framework measures that address the remaining constraints on competitiveness. The three critical areas that could constrain Thailand's medium term competitiveness include: 1) The need to strengthen the knowledge base--addressing the skills gap, and improving quality and coverage of education; mainstreaming information technology; and enhancing science and technological capability. 2) The need to modernize the infrastructure regulatory framework to improve the efficiency and delivery of public services. A modern and efficient physical infrastructure will help to reduce the cost associated with infrastructure bottlenecks faced by Thai firms. 3) The need to further improve the business environment and enhance competition--corporate governance, trade and investment regimes, competition policy--so that scarce labor and capital can be utilized in the most productive sectors. In addition, an appropriate macroeconomic environment, by signaling the right relative prices (domestic interest rates and exchange rates), will enable Thai firms to respond to emerging market trends.Publication Thailand - Social and Structural Review : Beyond the Crisis - Structural Reform for Stable Growth(Washington, DC, 2000-01-25)Following the East Asian financial crisis, the Bank's involvement in Thailand intensified, enabling a multifaceted stabilization, and structural reform dialogue, which deepened the economic, financial, and sector knowledge of the country. The study benefits from this analytical work, and provides an overview on the ongoing policy dialogue, regarding short- and medium-term reform, through a number of instruments. To promote longer-term growth, the country embarked on a twin strategy of macroeconomic stabilization, and structural reform. Although its flexible labor market, and support mechanisms diminished the crisis' impact on unemployment, and poverty, compared to other countries in the region, this ability to moderate the impact of the economic crisis, could adversely impact a prolonged crisis. The study examines steps to strengthen public sector social programs, and institutional capacity, envisaging coherent poverty support programs in a timely manner, while speeding fiscal stimulus effects, and, monitoring poverty through reliable information, to ensure cost-effectiveness. The financial sector reform is reviewed, focusing on restructuring financial institutions, while upgrading prudential regulations. Practices to improve private sector development are reviewed, i.e., promote corporate restructuring, and competition, and, improve factors of production, while promising a stable growth.Publication Russian Economic Report, No. 24, March 2011(Washington, DC, 2011-03)Despite the recent slowdown, the underlying growth of the global economy remains solid. After a 4 percent growth in 2010, Russia's real output is expected to grow 4.4 percent in 2011, increasingly driven by domestic demand. Russia's households have absorbed the food price shock thanks to a combination of higher wages and pensions, and resort to private and public safety nets. The country emerged from the global recession with lower unemployment and poverty than feared. But global risks and uncertainties increased with the new oil shock. Although the short-term impact will be positive for Russia's export and fiscal revenues, there is no room for complacency. Macroeconomic policy should focus on the short-term objective of controlling inflation and medium-term fiscal adjustment towards long-term, sustainable level of non-oil fiscal deficit. Improving the efficiency of public expenditure to create fiscal space for productive infrastructure and strengthening the investment climate for the private sector remain among key long-term challenges. The ongoing rethinking of the government's long-term strategy and a period of high oil revenues provide an opportunity to focus on these long-term issues more forcefully than during the global crisis.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2020 to 2024: Trends and Lessons Learned(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-22)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) provides a global benchmark of how container ports perform in handling vessel calls. Developed jointly by the World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence, it measures the time ships spend in port and relates this to the number of containers moved during that time. This approach makes the CPPI a unique diagnostic tool that can highlight patterns in port operations and shed light on global and regional supply chain dynamics. Now in its fifth edition, the CPPI report covers the period from 2020 to 2024. It builds on a well-established methodology to generate scores for more than 400 container ports worldwide. Over time, the CPPI has become a trusted reference point for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and researchers who seek to understand how ports adapt to shocks, recover from disruptions, and identify opportunities for investments, reform and modernization. A major innovation in this edition is the introduction of multi-year trend analysis. Rather than presenting annual snapshots, the report now tracks how CPPI scores have changed across five years. This longitudinal perspective reveals shifts in port performance, showing where scores have risen, fallen, or remained stable. By linking these movements to external factors, the CPPI offers insights into how global and regional supply chains evolve under pressure. The results clearly mirror the crises that have shaken global trade. During the COVID-19 pandemic, CPPI scores in different regions declined sharply as congestion, equipment shortages, and delays overwhelmed many ports. By 2023, global averages rebounded in parallel with easing freight markets and reduced congestion. Yet 2024 brought new challenges: the Red Sea crisis disrupted major trade lanes, while climate-related constraints at the Panama Canal added further stress. These shocks were reflected in lower global and several regional average scores, underscoring the vulnerability of maritime transport to geopolitical and environmental events. The CPPI is not about comparing one port against another, but about understanding changes in performance over time. Ports that improved their scores often did so by reducing time at anchor, optimizing berth operations, investing in digital tools, and strengthening coordination across logistics partners. The evidence confirms that improvements are possible across ports of all sizes, and that rising scores are linked to deliberate actions to minimize time in port relative to containers moved. By consolidating five years of results, this edition transforms the CPPI into a long-term reference point. It shows how global crises have affected shipping, how different regions have adapted, and what lessons can be drawn for future resilience. The World Bank and S&P Global Market Intelligence remain committed to maintaining the CPPI as a global public good, providing transparency, comparability, and practical insights to support more reliable and sustainable maritime supply chains.