Publication: Bridging the Targeting Gap: Assessing Humanitarian Beneficiaries’ Likely Eligibility for Social Protection in Iraq
Loading...
Published
2022-06
ISSN
Date
2022-06-17
Editor(s)
Abstract
In Iraq, the Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance programs have been instrumental in reaching the households most affected by the conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in areas where the coverage of the government’s social safety net (SSN) programs remain limited. In the evolving context, however, short-term Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance programs will require eventual integration in some form with the government’s social safety net programs to continue reaching vulnerable households affected by the conflict. As an initial step, this paper proposes an analytical pseudo-proxy-means test (PPMT) tool to bridge the targeting differences between the government’s cash transfer program and the humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance programs. Using the common proxies between the cash transfer targeting formulas of the humanitarian agencies and the government, the pseudo-proxy-means test provides each Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance beneficiary’s probability of being eligible for the government’s cash transfer program under different expansion scenarios. When applied to the existing humanitarian beneficiary database, the results of the pseudo-proxy-means test tool suggest the potential for both significant referral numbers and a sequenced referral strategy.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Phadera, Lokendra; Sharma, Dhiraj; Wai-Poi, Matthew; Douglas, Lotti; Jovanovic, Vladimir; Westerman, Oliver; Khan, Safwan Aziz. 2022. Bridging the Targeting Gap: Assessing Humanitarian Beneficiaries’ Likely Eligibility for Social Protection in Iraq. Policy Research Working Papers;10093. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37570 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Gender Gaps in the Performance of Small Firms: Evidence from Urban Peru(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-23)This paper estimates the gender gap in the performance of firms in Peru using representative data on both formal and informal firms. On average, informal female-led firms have lower sales, labor productivity, and profits compared to their male-led counterparts, with differences more pronounced when controlling for observable determinants of firm performance. However, gender gaps are only significant at the bottom of the performance distribution of informal firms, and these gaps disappear at the top of the distribution of informal firms and for formal firms. Possible explanations for the performance gaps at the bottom of the distribution include the higher likelihood of small, female-led firms being home-based, which is linked to lower profits, and their concentration in less profitable sectors. The paper provides suggestive evidence that household responsibilities play a key role in explaining the gender gap in firm performance among informal firms. Therefore, policies that promote access to care services or foster a more equal distribution of household activities may reduce gender productivity gaps and allow for a more efficient allocation of resources.Publication Global Poverty Revisited Using 2021 PPPs and New Data on Consumption(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-05)Recent improvements in survey methodologies have increased measured consumption in many low- and lower-middle-income countries that now collect a more comprehensive measure of household consumption. Faced with such methodological changes, countries have frequently revised upward their national poverty lines to make them appropriate for the new measures of consumption. This in turn affects the World Bank’s global poverty lines when they are periodically revised. The international poverty line, which is based on the typical poverty line in low-income countries, increases by around 40 percent to $3.00 when the more recent national poverty lines as well as the 2021 purchasing power parities are incorporated. The net impact of the changes in international prices, the poverty line, and new survey data (including new data for India) is an increase in global extreme poverty by some 125 million people in 2022, and a significant shift of poverty away from South Asia and toward Sub-Saharan Africa. The changes at higher poverty lines, which are more relevant to middle-income countries, are mixed.Publication Intergenerational Income Mobility around the World(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-07-09)This paper introduces a new global database with estimates of intergenerational income mobility for 87 countries, covering 84 percent of the world’s population. This marks a notable expansion of the cross-country evidence base on income mobility, particularly among low- and middle-income countries. The estimates indicate that the negative association between income mobility and inequality (known as the Great Gatsby Curve) continues to hold across this wider range of countries. The database also reveals a positive association between income mobility and national income per capita, suggesting that countries achieve higher levels of intergenerational mobility as they grow richer.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication The Impact of Atlantic Hurricanes on Business Activity(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-22)This paper quantifies the short-run economic impact of 21 Atlantic hurricanes on U.S. local business activity from 2017 to 2024 using anonymized Mastercard transaction data aggregated by ZIP code. On average, hurricanes reduce merchant sales by 12.4 percent during the preparation, impact, and recovery phases—an estimated US$1.38 billion in lost revenue per storm. Substitution in spending across nearby areas or large online platforms is limited, indicating widespread local consumption declines. Economic disruption varies more by industry than storm intensity, with independent stores hit harder than chains. Local businesses with larger online presence face smaller, shorter sales declines, showing greater resilience.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06)Aligning the short-term humanitarian assistance system with the government social protection system as a possible long-term solution for the displaced population is well discussed in the literature. However, there is limited evidence on how this alignment is applied in a real-world setting. Using field-test data, this paper documents the eligibility of the humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance beneficiaries for the government’s poverty-targeted cash transfer program in Iraq. It does so by using two possible approaches —a probabilistic pseudo-proxy-means test, which is based on a limited number of overlapping variables between the targeting models of the humanitarian and government support systems and is designed to be applied on the existing database, and a new data collection with complete sets of variables from the targeting models of the two systems. The paper finds that a significant number of households that qualify for the humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance program are eligible for the government’s cash transfer program. While the referral accuracy of the pseudo-proxy-means tests model is high, it is likely to leave out some eligible households. In additions to identifying the cross-eligibility with certainty, collecting new data may elicit important insight related to willingness to be referred. The choice between electing to collect new data or relying on the pseudo-proxy-means tests and using existing data comes with important trade-offs and will depend on the capacity, budget, and appetite for the uncertainty of eligibility.Publication Iraq's Universal Public Distribution System(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-02)Subsidized or free distribution of food has been a central pillar of social protection programs in many countries. With the number of forcibly displaced persons at record levels, the question arises of whether in-kind food transfer programs are effective in mitigating the loss of welfare induced by forced displacement. This paper examines whether Iraq’s Public Distribution System, a universal food subsidy program, has buffered the impacts of displacement on households. Using propensity score matching to account for the observable differences between Public Distribution System recipients and non-recipients, the analysis finds that displaced households with continued access to Public Distribution System benefits have higher food and non-food expenditures compared with displaced households that lost access. Likewise, the beneficiaries have higher calorie intakes and are less vulnerable to falling into poverty. However, displaced beneficiaries remained significantly worse off and more vulnerable to poverty than non-displaced households, suggesting that, although the Public Distribution System helped mitigate displacement to a degree, it may not be the most effective protection program for such shocks. Given the considerable resources the universal program consumes, it is vital to think of alternative approaches, such as targeted cash transfers, that might be more effective in protection and cost.Publication Multidimensional Poverty Assessment of Internally Displaced Persons in Iraq(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04)Decades of conflict have contributed to high flows of internal displacement in Iraq. The incidence of these flows on the welfare of internally displaced persons is not well understood. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the link between internal displacement and multidimensional poverty, using one of the most comprehensive household surveys for poverty analysis in Iraq. The results show crucial differences between internally displaced and non-displaced households with respect to multidimensional poverty. Furthermore, instrumental variable regression analysis suggests that the relationship is causal, that is, the probabilities of multidimensional and monetary poverty are higher because of internal displacement.Publication Delivering Social Protection in the Midst of Conflict and Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)Despite a situation of an active violent conflict, the Yemen Emergency CrisisResponse Project continues to deliver services and cash to the poor and vulnerablenationwide. This paper captures lessons learned from this innovative and pioneering project,which will be particularly relevant for shaping the World Bank's crisis response under IDA 18.Publication How to Target Households in Adaptive Social Protection Systems?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-10)Proxy Means Test (PMT) and the Household Economy Analysis (HEA) are widely used methods to target chronically poor households and those suffering from food crises respectively. Using panel data from Niger, this study provides the first empirical evidence on the relative efficiency of these methods in identifying households suffering from permanent or seasonal deprivations. Results show limited overlap between households selected by each method. The PMT performs better in targeting chronically poor households, while HEA performs better in targeting seasonal food insecure households. The study also explores the extent to which these methods can be improved, used and potentially combined to target households as part of ASP systems. Results show that the HEA formula could be further improved to target seasonally food insecure households, including through a regression model estimating food insecurity, and a principal component analysis (PCA) model. Combinations of PMT with methods such as HEA, PCA, or a food insecurity formula may be considered to identify households suffering from chronic poverty and seasonal food insecurity as part of an efficient and scalable ASP system. Harmonizing data collection tools of PMT and HEA users would serve as a crucial building block towards a unified registry and play a key role in improving the efficiency of ASP systems.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-05-21)This report provides an up-to-date overview of existing and emerging carbon pricing instruments around the world, including international, national, and subnational initiatives. It also investigates trends surrounding the development and implementation of carbon pricing instruments and some of the drivers seen over the past year. Specifically, this report covers carbon taxes, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and crediting mechanisms. Key topics covered in the 2024 report include uptake of ETSs and carbon taxes in low- and middle- income economies, sectoral coverage of ETSs and carbon taxes, and the use of crediting mechanisms as part of the policy mix.Publication Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21)This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.Publication Digital Progress and Trends Report 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-03-05)Digitalization is the transformational opportunity of our time. The digital sector has become a powerhouse of innovation, economic growth, and job creation. Value added in the IT services sector grew at 8 percent annually during 2000–22, nearly twice as fast as the global economy. Employment growth in IT services reached 7 percent annually, six times higher than total employment growth. The diffusion and adoption of digital technologies are just as critical as their invention. Digital uptake has accelerated since the COVID-19 pandemic, with 1.5 billion new internet users added from 2018 to 2022. The share of firms investing in digital solutions around the world has more than doubled from 2020 to 2022. Low-income countries, vulnerable populations, and small firms, however, have been falling behind, while transformative digital innovations such as artificial intelligence (AI) have been accelerating in higher-income countries. Although more than 90 percent of the population in high-income countries was online in 2022, only one in four people in low-income countries used the internet, and the speed of their connection was typically only a small fraction of that in wealthier countries. As businesses in technologically advanced countries integrate generative AI into their products and services, less than half of the businesses in many low- and middle-income countries have an internet connection. The growing digital divide is exacerbating the poverty and productivity gaps between richer and poorer economies. The Digital Progress and Trends Report series will track global digitalization progress and highlight policy trends, debates, and implications for low- and middle-income countries. The series adds to the global efforts to study the progress and trends of digitalization in two main ways: · By compiling, curating, and analyzing data from diverse sources to present a comprehensive picture of digitalization in low- and middle-income countries, including in-depth analyses on understudied topics. · By developing insights on policy opportunities, challenges, and debates and reflecting the perspectives of various stakeholders and the World Bank’s operational experiences. This report, the first in the series, aims to inform evidence-based policy making and motivate action among internal and external audiences and stakeholders. The report will bring global attention to high-performing countries that have valuable experience to share as well as to areas where efforts will need to be redoubled.Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.