Publication: How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection?: Evidence from Iraq
Loading...
Published
2022-06
ISSN
Date
2022-06-24
Editor(s)
Abstract
Aligning the short-term humanitarian assistance system with the government social protection system as a possible long-term solution for the displaced population is well discussed in the literature. However, there is limited evidence on how this alignment is applied in a real-world setting. Using field-test data, this paper documents the eligibility of the humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance beneficiaries for the government’s poverty-targeted cash transfer program in Iraq. It does so by using two possible approaches —a probabilistic pseudo-proxy-means test, which is based on a limited number of overlapping variables between the targeting models of the humanitarian and government support systems and is designed to be applied on the existing database, and a new data collection with complete sets of variables from the targeting models of the two systems. The paper finds that a significant number of households that qualify for the humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance program are eligible for the government’s cash transfer program. While the referral accuracy of the pseudo-proxy-means tests model is high, it is likely to leave out some eligible households. In additions to identifying the cross-eligibility with certainty, collecting new data may elicit important insight related to willingness to be referred. The choice between electing to collect new data or relying on the pseudo-proxy-means tests and using existing data comes with important trade-offs and will depend on the capacity, budget, and appetite for the uncertainty of eligibility.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Obi, Chinedu Temple; Phadera, Lokendra; Wai-Poi, Matthew; Leape, Virginia; Fox, Gabrielle. 2022. How Can Vulnerable Internally Displaced Persons Be Transitioned from Humanitarian Assistance to Social Protection?: Evidence from Iraq. Policy Research Working Papers;10095. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37592 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Digital Object Identifier
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.Publication The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29)Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.Publication Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.Publication South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08)Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.Publication Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07)The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Bridging the Targeting Gap(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022-06)In Iraq, the Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance programs have been instrumental in reaching the households most affected by the conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in areas where the coverage of the government’s social safety net (SSN) programs remain limited. In the evolving context, however, short-term Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance programs will require eventual integration in some form with the government’s social safety net programs to continue reaching vulnerable households affected by the conflict. As an initial step, this paper proposes an analytical pseudo-proxy-means test (PPMT) tool to bridge the targeting differences between the government’s cash transfer program and the humanitarian Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance programs. Using the common proxies between the cash transfer targeting formulas of the humanitarian agencies and the government, the pseudo-proxy-means test provides each Multi-Purpose Cash Assistance beneficiary’s probability of being eligible for the government’s cash transfer program under different expansion scenarios. When applied to the existing humanitarian beneficiary database, the results of the pseudo-proxy-means test tool suggest the potential for both significant referral numbers and a sequenced referral strategy.Publication Multidimensional Poverty Assessment of Internally Displaced Persons in Iraq(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-04)Decades of conflict have contributed to high flows of internal displacement in Iraq. The incidence of these flows on the welfare of internally displaced persons is not well understood. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by investigating the link between internal displacement and multidimensional poverty, using one of the most comprehensive household surveys for poverty analysis in Iraq. The results show crucial differences between internally displaced and non-displaced households with respect to multidimensional poverty. Furthermore, instrumental variable regression analysis suggests that the relationship is causal, that is, the probabilities of multidimensional and monetary poverty are higher because of internal displacement.Publication Delivering Social Protection in the Midst of Conflict and Crisis(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-10)Despite a situation of an active violent conflict, the Yemen Emergency CrisisResponse Project continues to deliver services and cash to the poor and vulnerablenationwide. This paper captures lessons learned from this innovative and pioneering project,which will be particularly relevant for shaping the World Bank's crisis response under IDA 18.Publication Iraq's Universal Public Distribution System(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-02)Subsidized or free distribution of food has been a central pillar of social protection programs in many countries. With the number of forcibly displaced persons at record levels, the question arises of whether in-kind food transfer programs are effective in mitigating the loss of welfare induced by forced displacement. This paper examines whether Iraq’s Public Distribution System, a universal food subsidy program, has buffered the impacts of displacement on households. Using propensity score matching to account for the observable differences between Public Distribution System recipients and non-recipients, the analysis finds that displaced households with continued access to Public Distribution System benefits have higher food and non-food expenditures compared with displaced households that lost access. Likewise, the beneficiaries have higher calorie intakes and are less vulnerable to falling into poverty. However, displaced beneficiaries remained significantly worse off and more vulnerable to poverty than non-displaced households, suggesting that, although the Public Distribution System helped mitigate displacement to a degree, it may not be the most effective protection program for such shocks. Given the considerable resources the universal program consumes, it is vital to think of alternative approaches, such as targeted cash transfers, that might be more effective in protection and cost.Publication Social Protection and Humanitarian Assistance Nexus for Disaster Response(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-02)This discussion paper presents an analysis of the humanitarian response following Tropical Cyclone (TC) Winston, and looks specifically at the role social protection played in improving disaster response and complementing the humanitarian assistance effort in Fiji. The paper also explores the changing landscape of social protections following TC Winston and documents some of the key achievements and challenges faced in the response period. Furthermore, a list of recommendations has been put together for further discussion on future disaster responsive social protection.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication Business Ready 2024(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03)Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.Publication Using Immunization Coverage Rates for Monitoring Health Sector Performance : Measurement and Interpretation Issues(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-08)Immunization against childhood diseases such as diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, polio and measles is one of the most important means of preventing childhood morbidity and mortality. Despite the low cost of basic childhood immunizations, nearly 3 million children still die each year from vaccine-preventable diseases. Achieving and maintaining high levels of immunization coverage must therefore be a priority for all health systems. In order to monitor progress in achieving this objective, immunization coverage data can serve as an indicator of a health system's capacity to deliver essential services to the most vulnerable members of a population. This note discusses the use of trends in immunization coverage data, and argues that immunization is a health output with a strong impact on child morbidity, child mortality and permanent disability. This note discusses measurement and interpretation issues for coverage data collected through surveys and administrative records.Publication Global Economic Prospects, June 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-06-10)The global economy is facing another substantial headwind, emanating largely from an increase in trade tensions and heightened global policy uncertainty. For emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), the ability to boost job creation and reduce extreme poverty has declined. Key downside risks include a further escalation of trade barriers and continued policy uncertainty. These challenges are exacerbated by subdued foreign direct investment into EMDEs. Global cooperation is needed to restore a more stable international trade environment and scale up support for vulnerable countries grappling with conflict, debt burdens, and climate change. Domestic policy action is also critical to contain inflation risks and strengthen fiscal resilience. To accelerate job creation and long-term growth, structural reforms must focus on raising institutional quality, attracting private investment, and strengthening human capital and labor markets. Countries in fragile and conflict situations face daunting development challenges that will require tailored domestic policy reforms and well-coordinated multilateral support.Publication Global Economic Prospects, January 2025(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-16)Global growth is expected to hold steady at 2.7 percent in 2025-26. However, the global economy appears to be settling at a low growth rate that will be insufficient to foster sustained economic development—with the possibility of further headwinds from heightened policy uncertainty and adverse trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, and climate-related natural disasters. Against this backdrop, emerging market and developing economies are set to enter the second quarter of the twenty-first century with per capita incomes on a trajectory that implies substantially slower catch-up toward advanced-economy living standards than they previously experienced. Without course corrections, most low-income countries are unlikely to graduate to middle-income status by the middle of the century. Policy action at both global and national levels is needed to foster a more favorable external environment, enhance macroeconomic stability, reduce structural constraints, address the effects of climate change, and thus accelerate long-term growth and development.Publication The Container Port Performance Index 2023(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-07-18)The Container Port Performance Index (CPPI) measures the time container ships spend in port, making it an important point of reference for stakeholders in the global economy. These stakeholders include port authorities and operators, national governments, supranational organizations, development agencies, and other public and private players in trade and logistics. The index highlights where vessel time in container ports could be improved. Streamlining these processes would benefit all parties involved, including shipping lines, national governments, and consumers. This fourth edition of the CPPI relies on data from 405 container ports with at least 24 container ship port calls in the calendar year 2023. As in earlier editions of the CPPI, the ranking employs two different methodological approaches: an administrative (technical) approach and a statistical approach (using matrix factorization). Combining these two approaches ensures that the overall ranking of container ports reflects actual port performance as closely as possible while also being statistically robust. The CPPI methodology assesses the sequential steps of a container ship port call. ‘Total port hours’ refers to the total time elapsed from the moment a ship arrives at the port until the vessel leaves the berth after completing its cargo operations. The CPPI uses time as an indicator because time is very important to shipping lines, ports, and the entire logistics chain. However, time, as captured by the CPPI, is not the only way to measure port efficiency, so it does not tell the entire story of a port’s performance. Factors that can influence the time vessels spend in ports can be location-specific and under the port’s control (endogenous) or external and beyond the control of the port (exogenous). The CPPI measures time spent in container ports, strictly based on quantitative data only, which do not reveal the underlying factors or root causes of extended port times. A detailed port-specific diagnostic would be required to assess the contribution of underlying factors to the time a vessel spends in port. A very low ranking or a significant change in ranking may warrant special attention, for which the World Bank generally recommends a detailed diagnostic.