Publication: Initial Conditions and the Outcome of Economic Reform
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Date
2008
ISSN
01651765
Published
2008
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This paper studies how initial conditions affect the outcome of reform using the case of trade liberalization as an example. The paper illustrates empirically and theoretically the seemingly paradoxical case of larger impact of reform when initial conditions are poorer.
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Publication Openness Can Be Good for Growth: The Role of Policy Complementarities(2009)This paper studies how the effect of trade openness on economic growth may depend on complementary reforms that help a country take advantage of international competition. This issue is illustrated with a simple Harris-Todaro model where welfare gains after trade openness depend on the degree of labor market flexibility. The paper then presents cross-country, panel-data evidence on how the growth effect of openness may depend on a variety of structural characteristics. For this purpose, the empirical section uses a non-linear growth regression specification that interacts a proxy of trade openness with proxies of educational investment, financial depth, inflation stabilization, public infrastructure, governance, labor market flexibility, ease of firm entry, and ease of firm exit. The paper concludes that the growth effects of openness may be significantly improved if certain complementary reforms are undertaken.Publication Openness Can Be Good for Growth : The Role of Policy Complementarities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-11)The authors study how the effect of trade openness on economic growth depends on complementary reforms that help a country take advantage of international competition. This issue is illustrated with a simple Harris-Todaro model where output gains after trade liberalization depend on the degree of labor market flexibility. In that model, trade protection may ameliorate the problem of underemployment (and underproduction) in sectors affected by labor market distortions. Hence, trade liberalization unambiguously increases per capita income only when labor markets are sufficiently flexible. The authors then present some panel evidence on how the growth effect of openness depends on a variety of structural characteristics. For this purpose, they use a non-linear growth regression specification that interacts a proxy of trade openness with proxies of educational investment, financial depth, inflation stabilization, public infrastructure, governance, labor-market flexibility, ease of firm entry, and ease of firm exit. They find that the growth effects of openness are positive and economically significant if certain complementary reforms are undertaken.Publication Trade Liberalization, Antidumping, and Safeguards: Evidence from India's Tariff Reform(2011)This paper is the first to use product-level data to examine empirically whether countries use antidumping and safeguard exceptions to unwind commitments to lower tariffs in the face of domestic political-economic pressure. We focus on the case of India, a country that underwent a major exogenous tariff reform program in the early 1990s and subsequently initiated substantial use of safeguard and antidumping import restrictions. We first estimate structural determinants of India's import protection using the Grossman and Helpman (1994) model and provide evidence from its pre-reform tariff data of 1990 that is consistent with the theory. We then re-estimate the model on the Indian tariff data after the trade liberalization is complete and find that the model no longer fits, a result consistent with theory and evidence provided in other settings that India's 1991-1992 IMF arrangement can be interpreted as resulting in an exogenous shock to India's tariff policy. However, when we re-estimate the model on data from 2000-2002 that more completely reflects India's cross-product variation in import protection by including both its post-reform tariffs and its additional non-tariff barriers of antidumping and safeguard import protection, the significance of the Grossman and Helpman model determinant estimates is restored. We interpret these combined results as evidence that India unwound its commitment to reduce tariffs through use of antidumping and safeguard protection in the face of political-economic pressure. The estimates are also economically important and provide one explanation for separate results in the literature that the magnitude of import reduction associated with India's use of antidumping is similar to the initial import expansion associated with its tariff reform. Finally, we interpret the implications of our results for the burgeoning research literature examining the effects of liberalization on India's micro-level development.Publication A Comparative Analysis of Trade and Economic Integration in East Asia and Latin America(2009)This paper provides an analysis of the two channels of regional integration: integration via markets and integration via agreements. Given that East Asia and Latin America are two fertile regions where both forms of integrations have taken place, we examine the experiences of these two areas to illustrate our conclusions. There are three related results. First, East Asia has been integrating via the markets long before formal agreements have been in vogue in the region. Latin America, on the other hand, has primarily been using formal regional trade treaties as the main channel of integration. Second, despite the relative lack of formal regional trade treaties until recently, East Asia is more integrated among itself than Latin America. Third, from a purely economic and trade standpoint, the proper sequence of integrations seems to be first integrating via the markets and subsequently via formal regional trade agreements. One interpretation of the relative success of the East Asian approach is that regional trade agreements often serve multiple constituents. Integrating via markets first can be helpful because this can give a stronger political bargaining power to the outward-looking economic-oriented forces within the country.Publication Arab Economic Integration: Missing Links(2010)This paper surveys the recent literature on Arab economic integration and discusses the goals and progress that has been made to date and some of the key policy, regulatory, and political factors that underpin the segmentation of Arab markets. It argues that there has been an excessive focus by both analysts and policy makers on trade in goods and that the prospects for--and returns to--efforts to deepen integration of other markets (services, labour, and capital) are likely to be higher.
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