Publication: Arab Economic Integration: Missing Links
Abstract
This paper surveys the recent literature on Arab economic integration and discusses the goals and progress that has been made to date and some of the key policy, regulatory, and political factors that underpin the segmentation of Arab markets. It argues that there has been an excessive focus by both analysts and policy makers on trade in goods and that the prospects for--and returns to--efforts to deepen integration of other markets (services, labour, and capital) are likely to be higher.
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Publication A Comparative Analysis of Trade and Economic Integration in East Asia and Latin America(2009)This paper provides an analysis of the two channels of regional integration: integration via markets and integration via agreements. Given that East Asia and Latin America are two fertile regions where both forms of integrations have taken place, we examine the experiences of these two areas to illustrate our conclusions. There are three related results. First, East Asia has been integrating via the markets long before formal agreements have been in vogue in the region. Latin America, on the other hand, has primarily been using formal regional trade treaties as the main channel of integration. Second, despite the relative lack of formal regional trade treaties until recently, East Asia is more integrated among itself than Latin America. Third, from a purely economic and trade standpoint, the proper sequence of integrations seems to be first integrating via the markets and subsequently via formal regional trade agreements. One interpretation of the relative success of the East Asian approach is that regional trade agreements often serve multiple constituents. Integrating via markets first can be helpful because this can give a stronger political bargaining power to the outward-looking economic-oriented forces within the country.Publication Transparency and Regional Integration in the Asia Pacific(2009)We show in this paper that increasing the transparency of the trading environment can be an important complement to traditional liberalisation of tariff and non-tariff barriers. Our definition of transparency is grounded in a transaction cost analysis. We focus on two dimensions of transparency: predictability (reducing the cost of uncertainty) and simplification (reducing information costs). Using the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member economies as a case study, we construct indices of importer and exporter transparency for the region from a wide range of sources. Our results from a gravity model suggest that improving trade-related transparency in APEC could hold significant benefits by raising intra-APEC trade by approximately US $148 billion or 7.5 per cent of baseline trade in the region. Action to improve transparency measures examined could be undertaken in many forms, including within the current APEC framework or future talks on a Free Trade Area in the Asia Pacific.Publication Regional Integration in Asia and Its Effects on the EU and North America(2009)Consequences of free-trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra- and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America.Publication Initial Conditions and Incentives for Arab Economic Integration : Can the European Community's Success be Emulated?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2002-10)The authors compare the European Community's "trade fundamentals" prevailing in the 1960s with those applying in Arab countries today. The fundamentals differ significantly-Arab countries trade much less with each other than EC members did, and the importance of such trade in GDP varies greatly. This suggests that a viable Arab integration strategy must follow a path that differs from the preferential trade liberalization-led approach implemented by the European Community. An alternative is to complement long-standing attempts to liberalize merchandise trade with an effort that revolves around service sector reforms and liberalization. This may prove to be an effective mechanism to support reforms as, in principle, there is a major constituency in each Arab country that has an interest in improving the performance of services-the natural resource-based and manufacturing sectors. A key condition for such an approach to be feasible is that Arab cooperation helps overcome political economy resistance to national, unilateral action, or, generates direct gains from cooperation in specific policy areas. The EC experience suggests that a services-based integration strategy will be complex and must be carefully designed and sequenced. Given the importance of services-related trade and logistics transactions costs, a first step might focus on bringing such costs down through a concerted joint effort.Publication Trade Facilitation in ASEAN Member Countries: Measuring Progress and Assessing Priorities(2009)This paper reviews progress and indicators of trade facilitation in member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. The findings show that import and export costs vary considerably in the member countries, from very low to moderately high levels. Tariff and non-tariff barriers are generally low to moderate. Infrastructure quality and services sector competitiveness range from fair to excellent. Using a standard gravity model, the authors find that trade flows in Southeast Asia are particularly sensitive to transport infrastructure and information and communications technology. The results suggest that the region could make significant economic gains from trade facilitation reform. These gains could be considerably larger than those from comparable tariff reforms. Estimates suggest that improving port facilities in the region, for example, could expand trade by up to 7.5% or $22bn. The authors interpret this as an indication of the vital role that transport infrastructure can play in enhancing intra-regional trade.
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