Publication:
How Mexico's Financial Crisis Affected Income Distribution

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (1.76 MB)
351 downloads
Published
2000-07
ISSN
Date
2015-02-03
Author(s)
Salinas, Angel
Editor(s)
Abstract
After Mexico's financial crisis in 1994, the distribution of income, and labor earnings improved. Did inequality increase during the recession, as one would expect, since the rich have more ways to protect their assets than the poor do? After all, labor is poor people's only asset (the labor-hoarding hypothesis). In principle, one could argue that the richest deciles experienced severe capital losses, because of the crisis in 1994-96, and were hurt proportionately more than the poor were. But the facts don't support this hypothesis. As a share of total income, both monetary income (other than wages, and salaries) and financial income, increased during that period, especially in urban areas. Financial income is a growing source of inequality in Mexico. Mexico's economy had a strong performance in 1997. The aggregate growth rate was about 7 percent, real investment grew 24 percent, and exports 17 percent, industrial production increased 9.7 percent, and growth in civil construction (which makes intensive use of less skilled labor) was close to 11 percent. Given those figures, it is not surprising that the distribution of income, and labor earnings improved, but the magnitude, and quickness of the recovery prompted a close inspection of the mechanisms responsible for it. The authors analyze the decline in income inequality after the crisis, examine income sources that affect the level of inequality, and investigate the forces that drive inequality in Mexico. They find that in 1997 the crisis had hurt the income share of the top decile of the population, mainly by reducing its share of labor earnings. Especially affected were highly skilled workers in financial services, and non-tradables. Results from 1998 suggest that the labor earnings of those workers recovered, and in fact increased. Indeed, labor earnings are a growing source of income inequality.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Salinas, Angel; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys. 2000. How Mexico's Financial Crisis Affected Income Distribution. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 2406. © http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21401 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    Climate and Social Sustainability in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence Contexts
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Cuesta Leiva, Jose Antonio; Huff, Connor
    Climate change is widely recognized as a driver of violent conflict, but its broader social effects remain less understood. Ignoring these dimensions risks a vicious cycle where climate policies might undermine socially just adaptation. Evidence is still limited on how climate shocks influence political participation, trust, or migration. This paper helps fill that gap by examining links between climate change, conflict, and social sustainability, with a focus on inclusion, resilience, cohesion, and legitimacy. Using secondary data from 2019–24, the study applies simple correlation-based methods to test three hypotheses on the nature, severity, and composition of these associations. The analysis combines multiple climate impact measures, new conflict classifications, recent social sustainability frameworks, and controls for population and geography. The results reveal strong correlations—not causation—between climate events and contexts of fragility, conflict, and violence. Climate impacts are most pronounced in both national and subnational conflict settings. The study also finds robust links between fragility, conflict, and violence and low levels of social sustainability, reflecting its role as both a driver and consequence of conflict. Some dimensions—such as violent events and insecurity—appear weaker in areas most affected by climate shocks. Two of the hypotheses are supported, and one remains inconclusive.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Institutional Capacity for Policy Implementation: An Analytical Framework
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Kim, Galileu; Kumar, Tanu; Ramalho, Rita; Russell, Stuart
    State capacity is an important prerequisite for policy implementation, yet at the country level it is difficult to measure, assess, and reform. This paper proposes a focus on institutional capacity: the ability of public institutions to implement the specific policy mandates for which they are responsible. Based on a review of existing literature, the paper defines the different dimensions that compose institutional capacity and groups them into two cross-cutting categories: organizational dimensions (personnel, financial resources, information systems, and management practices) and governance dimensions (transparency, independence, and accountability). The paper proposes measures for organizational and governance dimensions using existing data, shows intra-institutional variation of these measures within countries, and discusses how new data could be collected for better measurement of these concepts. Finally, the paper illustrates how the framework can be used to diagnose the sources of common problems related to weak policy implementation.
  • Publication
    South Africa’s Fragmented Cities: The Unequal Burden of Labor Market Frictions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-08) Baez, Javier E.; Kshirsagar, Varun
    Using high-resolution administrative, census, and satellite data, this paper shows that South African cities are characterized by spatial mismatches between where people live and where jobs are located, relative to 20 global peers. Areas within 5 kilometers of commercial centers have 9,300 fewer residents per square kilometer than expected, which is 60 percent below the global median. Poor, dense neighborhoods are most affected. In Johannesburg, a 10-percentile increase in distance from the nearest business hub corresponds to a 3.7-percentile drop in asset wealth (a proxy of household wellbeing) and 4.9-percentile drop in employment. In Cape Town, the declines are 4.0 and 3.7 percentiles, respectively. Employment is 87 percent lower in the poorest decile than the richest in Johannesburg and 61 percent lower in Cape Town. These findings suggest that South Africa’s spatial organization of people and economic activity constrains agglomeration and reinforces inequality. This methodology provides a scalable and standardized data-driven framework to analyze spatial accessibility and agglomeration frictions in complex, data-constrained urban systems.
  • Publication
    Investment in Emerging and Developing Economies
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2026-01-07) Adarov, Amat; Kose, M. Ayhan; Vorisek, Dana
    The world faces a pressing challenge to meet key development objectives amid slowing growth and rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks. With the number of job seekers rising rapidly, infrastructure shortfalls continuing to be large, and climate costs mounting, the case for a significant investment push has never been stronger. Yet the capacity to respond in many emerging markets and developing economies has eroded. Since the global financial crisis, investment growth has slowed to about half its pace in the 2000s, with both public and private investment weakening. Foreign direct investment inflows—a critical source of capital, technology, and managerial know-how—have also fallen sharply and become increasingly concentrated, leaving low-income countries with only a marginal share. The risks of further retrenchment are significant, as trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and elevated debt levels continue to weigh on investment. Reigniting momentum will require ambitious domestic reforms to strengthen institutions, rebuild macro-fiscal stability, and deepen trade and investment integration—the foundations of a supportive business climate. At the same time, international cooperation is indispensable. A renewed commitment to a predictable system of cross-border trade and investment flows, combined with scaled-up financial support and sustained technical assistance, is essential to help emerging markets and developing economies—especially low-income countries and economies in fragile and conflict situations—bridge financing gaps and implement the domestic reforms needed to restore investment as an engine of growth, jobs, and development.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Evolution of Earnings and Rates of Returns to Education in Mexico
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2001-10) Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
    Reviewing the factors, and mechanisms that have been driving inequality in earnings in Mexico, the author finds that inequality in education, accounts for the largest share by far of the variation in earnings. In fact, the contribution of educational inequality to earnings inequality in Mexico, ranks second in size in Latin America, after that in Brazil, and its significance has been increasing. Moreover, the income effect is always prevalent, and the distribution of education is highly significant, even after controlling for changes in other relevant variables, such as age, region, economic sector, and labor market status. But the increase in earnings inequality in Mexico, does not appear to be the result of a worsening in the distribution of education - although the income profile, which is related to returns to schooling, has become much steeper. This means that the shift in demand toward high-skilled labor, has not been matched by an increase in supply. The probable reason: the increased economic openness in Mexico has facilitated skill-biased technological change.
  • Publication
    Mexico : Two Decades of the Evolution of Education and Inequality
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2006-05) López-Acevedo, Gladys
    Mexico experienced a pronounced increase in the degree of inequality and earnings inequality over the 1980s and mid 1990s. Contrary to the trend in the distribution of total income inequality, there has been an improvement in the distribution of earnings inequality since 1996. This paper shows the following results. First, education has the highest gross contribution in explaining changes in earnings distribution. Second, both changes in the distribution of education and in the relative earnings among educational groups have always been in phase with the alterations in the earnings distribution. Specifically, when the income profile effect related to education became steeper and the inequality of education increased, the earnings distribution worsened (as in the 1988-96 period). Third, changes in the relative earnings among educational groups are always the leading force behind changes in inequality.
  • Publication
    Latin America - Determinants of Regional Welfare Disparities within Latin American Countries : Synthesis
    (World Bank, 2009-05-01) Skoufias, Emmanuel; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys
    This study analyzes the complicated and dynamic nature of welfare differences across space. The objectives are two-fold. First, the study seeks to provide a methodological framework useful for investigating the determinants of the observed differences in the standards of living between two regions at a given point in time. Second, it aims to provide empirical evidence on regional welfare differences to inform the policy debate surrounding regional inequalities within countries. Chapter two sets the stage by presenting the poverty profiles within and between regions in each of the eight countries in study. Chapter three reviews the methodology, based on the Oaxaca-Blinder (1973) decomposition method used to asses the relative size of the concentration and geography effect in welfare differences across regions/areas. Chapter four reports the findings from various comparisons conducted between urban and rural areas within regions, and urban vs. urban (or rural vs. rural) areas between regions. Chapter five focuses on the role of internal migration within Latin America (LAC) countries. Chapter six summarizes the available empirical evidence regarding the poverty and welfare impacts of the two most distinct types interventions associated with the concentration and the geography views: conditional cash transfers; and territorial development strategies. Chapter seven summarizes findings and discusses some of their main policy implications.
  • Publication
    Mexico : Earnings Inequality after Mexico's Economic and Educational Reforms, Volume 2. Background Papers
    (Washington, DC, 2000-05-16) World Bank
    The study reviews the forces driving Mexico's inequality, in particular, the recent expansion in earnings inequality, emphasizing the roles of education on: establishing an analytical framework, that allows interaction between education, and labor market; examining the evolution of earnings inequality, following the macroeconomic, and educational policies of the 80s, and 90s; exploring best practices for the use, and allocation of public educational resources, in light of foreseeable increases in earnings inequality; and, identifying those areas of educational public policy, which impact student graduation. The study argues on the student's decision-making at the secondary, and tertiary levels, concerning the disciplines to pursue, - a choice clearly influenced by several factors - such as taste, abilities, family background, etc. Though some factors may be intrinsic, others could be used as policy tools, to provide advice on best study options, but insufficient effort on the part of educational institutions, and weak information, restrain best option selection. Theoretical support is suggested, to develop basic education, and increase access to the poor; upgrade the level of secondary education; and, improve financial access to higher education. The study contains two volumes, Volume 1 - the main document, summarizes the findings of the background papers, contained in volume 2.
  • Publication
    Big Bad Banks? The Impact of U.S. Branch Deregulation on Income Distribution
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-08) Levine, Ross; Beck, Thorsten; Levkov, Alexey
    Policymakers and economists disagree about the impact of bank regulations on the distribution of income. Exploiting cross-state and cross-time variation, the authors test whether liberalizing restrictions on intra-state branching in the United States intensified, ameliorated, or had no effect on income distribution. The analysis finds that branch deregulation lowered income inequality by affecting labor market conditions, not by boosting the business income of the poor, nor by enhancing educational attainment. Reductions in the earnings gap between men and women and between skilled and unskilled workers account for the bulk of the explained drop in income inequality.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Malaysia Public Expenditures : Managing the Crisis; Challenging the Future
    (Washington, DC, 2000-05-22) World Bank
    Malaysia achieved unprecedented economic growth and dramatic poverty reduction in the two decades prior to 1997. As a result, pressure on public expenditures was alleviated and when the regional financial crisis hit in 1997, the budget was in surplus and public debt had fallen to around 30 percent in GDP. But the crisis brought to the fore issues in public expenditure management that might have remained of less significance in a fast-growing economy: large and increasing off-budget liabilities that could undermine fiscal prudence, accountability, and efficiency in the use of public resources. The government is rethinking its role in tertiary education, tertiary health care, social protection against income risk, and infrastructure. In these areas, there is a potential role for the private sector in provision and financing, and the government's role is gradually shifting from being a provider of these services to a financial supporter and a regulator. In this evolving public-private partnership, the goal of the government is to reduce the fiscal burden while ensuring equity in delivering public services and efficiency in allocating and using public resources. This public expenditure analysis aims to analyze fiscal issues arising from the crisis, gauge the government's public expenditure management system, and assess performance and future challenges in education, health, poverty reduction, and infrastructure.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Anti-Corruption Policies and Programs : A Framework for Evaluation
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2000-12) Huther, Jeff; Shah, Anwar
    The anti-corruption strategy the World Bank announced in September 1997 defined corruption as the "use of public office for private gain" and called for the Bank to address corruption along four dimensions: 1) Preventing fraud and corruption in Bank projects; 2) Helping countries that request Bank assistance for fighting corruption; 3) Mainstreaming a concern about corruption in Bank work; and 4) Lending active support to international efforts to address corruption. The menu of possible actions to contain corruption (in both countries and Bank projects) is very large, so the authors develop a framework to help assign priorities, depending on views of what does and does not work in specific countries. Their framework, based on public officials' incentives for opportunistic behavior, distinguishes between highly corrupt and largely corruption-free societies. Certain conditions encourage public officials to seek or accept corruption: a) The expected gains from undertaking a corrupt act exceed the expected costs. b) Little weight is placed on the cost that corruption imposes on others. In a country with heavy corruption and poor governance, the priorities in anti-corruption efforts would then be to establish rule of law, strengthen institutions of participation and accountability, and limit government interventions to focus on core mandates. In a country with moderate corruption and fair governance, the priorities would be decentralization and economic reform, results-oriented management and evaluation, and the introduction of incentives for competitive delivery of public services. In a country with little corruption and strong governance, the priorities might be explicit anti-corruption agencies and programs, stronger financial management, increased public and government awareness, no-bribery pledges, efforts to fry the "big fish," and so on.
  • Publication
    Earthquake Risk in Multifamily Residential Buildings
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020-08-01) World Bank Group
    Multifamily residential buildings in earthquake-prone cities across Central Europe, Balkans, and Central Asia have proved to be vulnerable and have revealed several structural deficiencies during previous earthquake events. Earthquakes in these regions have damaged certain types of multifamily buildings beyond repair or have caused complete collapse, resulting in extensive homelessness and many fatalities. The vulnerability of some of these buildings can be attributed to the mass-produced nature of multifamily residential buildings as well as lack of maintenance, oversight, and disinvestment over many decades. This study investigates earthquake risk of multifamily buildings constructed before 2000 across cities in countries within Europe and Central Asia (ECA) to better understand their behavior and potential losses when subjected to earthquakes, and to inform recommendations for mitigation.
  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries 2000
    (World Bank: Washington, DC, 2000) World Bank
    Developing countries are now recovering from the worst ravages of the financial crisis of 1997-98. However, the recovery is both uneven and fragile, and many countries continue to struggle in the aftermath. In addition to a review of international economic developments, this report considers three areas where the crisis has had a major impact on growth and welfare in the developing world. First, the crisis has increased poverty in the East Asian crisis countries, Brazil, and the Russian Federation, and elsewhere. Chapter 2 reviews the evidence on the crisis' social impact on East Asia and other developing countries, and addresses the broader issue of the impact of external shocks on poverty in developing countries. Second, though the East Asian crisis countries are experiencing a strong cyclical recovery, severe structural problems remain. Chapter 3 outlines the depth of the problems faced by the corporate and financial sectors of these economies, analyzes the challenges facing the restructuring process, and discusses the appropriate role of government in supporting restructuring and reducing systemic risk. Third, exchange rate depreciations and declines in demand in East Asia exacerbated the fall in primary commodity prices that began in 1996. Chapter 4 examines how the most commodity-dependent economies in the world--the major oil exporting countries and the non-oil exporters of Sub-Saharan Africa--have adjusted to the commodity price cycle.