Publication: The Jobs of Tomorrow: Technology, Productivity, and Prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean
Loading...
Files in English
5,320 downloads
Other Files
3,662 downloads
Date
2018-04-10
ISSN
Published
2018-04-10
Author(s)
Editor(s)
Abstract
While adoption of new technologies is understood to enhance long-term growth and average per-capita incomes, its impact on lower-skilled workers is more complex and merits clarification. Concerns abound that advanced technologies developed in high-income countries would inexorably lead to job losses of lower-skilled, less well-off workers and exacerbate inequality. Conversely, there are countervailing concerns that policies intended to protect jobs from technology advancement would themselves stultify progress and depress productivity. This book squarely addresses both sets of concerns with new research showing that adoption of digital technologies offers a pathway to more inclusive growth by increasing adopting firms’ outputs, with the jobs-enhancing impact of technology adoption assisted by growth-enhancing policies that foster sizable output expansion. The research reported here demonstrates with economic theory and data from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Mexico that lower-skilled workers can benefit from adoption of productivity-enhancing technologies biased towards skilled workers, and often do. The inclusive jobs outcomes arise when the effects of increased productivity and expanding output overcome the substitution of workers for technology. While the substitution effect replaces some lower-skilled workers with new technology and more highly-skilled labor, the output effect can lead to an increase in the total number of jobs for less-skilled workers. Critically, output can increase sufficiently to increase jobs across all tasks and skill types within adopting firms, including jobs for lower-skilled workers, as long as lower-skilled task content remains complementary to new technologies and related occupations are not completely automated and replaced by machines. It is this channel for inclusive growth that underlies the power of pro-competitive enabling policies and institutions—such as regulations encouraging firms to compete and policies supporting the development of skills that technology augments rather than replaces—to ensure that the positive impact of technology adoption on productivity and lower-skilled workers is realized.
Link to Data Set
Citation
“Packard, Truman G.; Dutz, Mark A.; Almeida, Rita K.. 2018. The Jobs of Tomorrow: Technology, Productivity, and Prosperity in Latin America and the Caribbean. Directions in Development;; Directions in Development--Information and Communication Technology;. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/29617 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Associated URLs
Associated content
Other publications in this report series
Publication Democratic Republic of Congo Urbanization Review(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2018)The Democratic Republic of Congo has the third largest urban population in sub-Saharan Africa (estimated at 43% in 2016) after South Africa and Nigeria. It is expected to grow at a rate of 4.1% per year, which corresponds to an additional 1 million residents moving to cities every year. If this trend continues, the urban population could double in just 15 years. Thus, with a population of 12 million and a growth rate of 5.1% per year, Kinshasa is poised to become the most populous city in Africa by 2030. Such strong urban growth comes with two main challenges – the need to make cities livable and inclusive by meeting the high demand for social services, infrastructure, education, health, and other basic services; and the need to make cities more productive by addressing the lack of concentrated economic activity. The Urbanization Review of the Democratic Republic of Congo argues that the country is urbanizing at different rates and identifies five regions (East, South, Central, West and Congo Basin) that present specific challenges and opportunities. The Urbanization Review proposes policy options based on three sets of instruments, known as the three 'I's – Institutions, Infrastructures and Interventions – to help each region respond to its specific needs while reaping the benefits of economic agglomeration The Democratic Republic of the Congo is at a crossroads. The recent decline in commodity prices could constitute an opportunity for the country to diversify its economy and invest in the manufacturing sector. Now is an opportune time for Congolese decision-makers to invest in cities that can lead the country's structural transformation and facilitate greater integration with African and global markets. Such action would position the country well on the path to emergence.Publication Strengthening Competitiveness In Bangladesh—Thematic Assessment(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016-07-15)This is volume 2 of a three-volume publication on Bangladesh’s trade prospects. Bangladesh’s ambition is to build on its very solid growth and poverty reduction achievements, and accelerate growth to become a middle income country by 2021, and share prosperity more widely amongst its citizens. This includes one of its greatest development challenges: to provide gainful employment to the over 2 million people that will join the labor force each year over the next decade. Moreover, only 54.1 million of its 94 million working age people are employed. Bangladesh needs to use its labor endowment even more intensively to increase growth and, in turn, to absorb the incoming labor. The Diagnostic Trade Integration Study identifies the following actions centered around four pillars to sustain and accelerate export growth: (1) breaking into new markets through a) better trade logistics to reduce delivery lags ; as world markets become more competitive and newer products demand shorter lead times, to generate new sources of competitiveness and thereby enable market diversification; and b) better exploitation of regional trading opportunities in nearby growing and dynamic markets, especially East and South Asia; (2) breaking into new products through a) more neutral and rational trade policy and taxation and bonded warehouse schemes; b) concerted efforts to spur domestic investment and attract foreign direct investment, to contribute to export promotion and diversification, including by easing the energy and land constraints; and c) strategic development and promotion of services trade; (3) improving worker and consumer welfare by a) improving skills and literacy; b) implementing labor and work safety guidelines; and c) making safety nets more effective in dealing with trade shocks; and (4) building a supportive environment, including a) sustaining sound macroeconomic fundamentals; and b) strengthening the institutional capacity for strategic policy making aimed at the objective of international competitiveness to help bring focus and coherence to the government’s reform efforts. This second volume provides in-depth analysis across seven cross-cutting themes that underpin most of the findings of pillars 1 and 2 above.Publication At a Crossroads(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-05-02)Higher education (HE) has expanded dramatically in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since 2000. While access became more equitable, quality concerns remain. This volume studies the expansion, as well as HE quality, variety and equity in LAC. It investigates the expansion’s demand and supply drivers, and outlines policy implications.Publication Entrepreneurship Education and Training Programs around the World : Dimensions for Success(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2014-04-23)Entrepreneurship has attracted global interest for its potential to catalyze economic and social development. Research suggesting that certain entrepreneurial mindsets and skills can be learned has given rise to the field of entrepreneurship education and training (EET). Despite the growth of EET, global knowledge about these programs and their impact remains thin. In response, this study surveys the available literature and program evaluations to propose a Conceptual Framework for understanding the EET program landscape. The study finds that EET today consists of a heterogeneous mix of programs that can be broken into two groups: entrepreneurship education and entrepreneurship training. These programs target a range of participants: secondary and post-secondary education students, as well as potential and practicing entrepreneurs. The outcomes measured by program evaluations are equally diverse but generally fall under the domains of entrepreneurial mindsets and capabilities, entrepreneurial status, and entrepreneurial performance. The dimensions of EET programs vary according the particular target group. Programs targeting secondary education students focus on the development of foundational skills linked to entrepreneurship, while post-secondary education programs emphasize skills related to strategic business planning. Programs targeting potential entrepreneurs generally are embedded within broader support programs and tend to target vulnerable populations for whom employment alternatives may be limited. While programs serving practicing entrepreneurs focus on strengthening entrepreneurs’ knowledge, skills and business practices, which while unlikely to transform an enterprise in the near term, may accrue benefits to entrepreneurs over time. The study also offers implications for policy and program implementation, emphasizing the importance of clarity about target groups and desired outcomes when making program choices, and sound understanding of extent to which publicly-supported programs offer a broader public good, and compare favorably to policy alternatives for supporting the targeted individuals as well as the overall economic and social objectives.Publication An Investment Framework for Nutrition(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2017-04-12)The report estimates the costs, impacts and financing scenarios to achieve the World Health Assembly global nutrition targets for stunting, anemia in women, exclusive breastfeeding and the scaling up of the treatment of severe wasting among young children. To reach these four targets, the world needs $70 billion over 10 years to invest in high-impact nutrition-specific interventions. This investment would have enormous benefits: 65 million cases of stunting and 265 million cases of anemia in women would be prevented in 2025 as compared with the 2015 baseline. In addition, at least 91 million more children would be treated for severe wasting and 105 million additional babies would be exclusively breastfed during the first six months of life over 10 years. Altogether, achieving these targets would avert at least 3.7 million child deaths. Every dollar invested in this package of interventions would yield between $4 and $35 in economic returns, making investing in early nutrition one of the best value-for-money development actions. Although some of the targets—especially those for reducing stunting in children and anemia in women—are ambitious and will require concerted efforts in financing, scale-up, and sustained commitment, recent experience from several countries suggests that meeting these targets is feasible. These investments in the critical 1000 day window of early childhood are inalienable and portable and will pay lifelong dividends – not only for children directly affected but also for us all in the form of more robust societies – that will drive future economies.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue
Collections
Related items
Showing items related by metadata.
Publication Competition and Innovation-Driven Inclusive Growth(2011-10-01)The paper investigates the strength of innovation-driven employment growth, the role of competition in stimulating and facilitating it, and whether it is inclusive. In a sample of more than 26,000 manufacturing establishments across 71 countries (both OECD and developing), the authors find that firms that innovate in products or processes, or that have attained higher total factor productivity, exhibit higher employment growth than non-innovative firms. The strength of firms' innovation-driven employment growth is significantly positively associated with the share of the firms' workforce that is unskilled, debunking the conventional wisdom that innovation-driven growth is not inclusive in that it is focused on jobs characterized by higher levels of qualification. They also find that young firms have higher propensities for product or process innovation in countries with better Doing Business ranks (both overall and ranks for constituent components focused on credit availability and property registration). Firms generally innovate more and show greater employment growth if they are exposed to more information (through internet use and membership in business organizations) and are exporters. The empirical results support the policy propositions that innovation is a powerful driver of employment growth, that innovation-driven growth is inclusive in its creation of unskilled jobs, and that the underlying innovations are fostered by a pro-competitive business environment providing ready access to information, financing, export opportunities, and other essential business services that facilitate the entry and expansion of young firms.Publication Skills and Jobs in Brazil(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2018-07-10)Skills and Jobs in Brazil: An Agenda for Youth is a new report focusing on the challenge of economic engagement among the Brazilian youth. In the context of a fast aging population, Brazil’s greatest economic opportunity is to increase its labor productivity, especially that of youth. This report documents important new facts about the extent of the youth economic disengagement, while at school and at work. Today, close to half of the Brazilian youth aged 15-29 years old is not fully economically engaged, because they are neither working nor studying, are studying in schools of poor quality, or are working in informal and precarious jobs. The report shows how the youth prospects in the labor market are dimmed by policies favoring existing workers over new entrants; in addition, it shows how youth are often ill equipped to meet an increasingly challenging labor market. The report suggests new education, skills, and jobs policy changes that Brazil could prioritize moving forward, so that it can take advantage of the last wave of its demographic transition. The report discusses in particular depth policies aiming to increase learning and reduce school dropouts in upper secondary education, and labor market policies that aim to support more effective and faster youth transitions from school to work.Publication Digital Senegal for Inclusive Growth(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-03)Digital Senegal for Inclusive Growth explores possible solutions for a more intensive use of digital technologies, especially by small and medium enterprises, to increase their productivity and create more quality jobs. The report will contribute to helping women and young people in particular to gain access to decent work and therefore reduce their exposure to poverty. Appropriate use of this report will make it possible to succeed in the challenges of digital transformation, especially in the context of a relatively young population that is more open to innovation and change.Publication Connecting to Work : How Information and Communication Technologies Could Help Expand Employment Opportunities(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-09)Information and communication technology (ICT) has grown as a sector and now employs millions of people worldwide. The proliferation of ICTs has also helped digitize how people find and do work. The world will need to create over 600 million jobs by 2030 for unemployment to remain at current levels. ICT-enabled employment may help address some of this problem both by creating jobs in the ICT sector and by helping to make labor markets more inclusive, innovative, flexible, and transparent. What can governments do to prepare for these changes and maximize employment opportunities? This paper is a first step in an effort by the World Bank to understand how ICTs are shaping, changing, and transforming labor markets. It explores how governments and other stakeholders might respond to leverage the growth of ICTs to help increase employment opportunities. This paper is structured as follows: section 1 serves as an introduction; section 2 defines the scope, focusing on the types of employment opportunities due to ICT as a sector and as a tool; section 3 considers the impact of the ICT sector on software programming, IT services, and telecommunications; section 4 describes how ICTs as tools empower and include more workers in labor markets; section 5 analyzes the challenges and risks that appear alongside these opportunities; section 6 discusses human capital, infrastructure, financial, regulatory, and social systems that will enable ICT in employment; and section 7 identifies strategic themes for governments to consider as they maximize the gains from ICT's increasing role in the world of work.Publication Green growth, technology and innovation(2012-01-01)The paper explores existing patterns of green innovation and presents an overview of green innovation policies for developing countries. The key findings from the empirical analysis are: (1) frontier green innovations are concentrated in high-income countries, few in developing countries but growing; (2) the most technologically-sophisticated developing countries are emerging as significant innovators but limited to a few technology fields; (3) there is very little South-South collaboration; (4) there is potential for expanding green production and trade; and (5) there has been little base-of-pyramid green innovation to meet the needs of poor consumers, and it is too early to draw conclusions about its scalability. To promote green innovation, technology and environmental policies work best in tandem, focusing on three complementary areas: (1) to promote frontier innovation, it is advisable to limit local technology-push support to countries with sufficient technological capabilities -- but there is also a need to provide global technology-push support for base-of-pyramid and neglected technologies including through a pool of long-term, stable funds supported by demand-pull mechanisms such as prizes; (2) to promote catch-up innovation, it is essential both to facilitate technology access and to stimulate technology absorption by firms -- with critical roles played by international trade and foreign direct investment, with firm demand spurred by public procurement, regulations and standards; and (3) to develop absorptive capacity, there is a need to strengthen skills and to improve the prevailing business environment for innovation -- to foster increased experimentation, global learning, and talent attraction and retention. There is still considerable progress to be made in ranking green innovation policies as most appropriate for different developing country contexts -- based on more impact evaluation studies of innovation policies targeted at green technologies.
Users also downloaded
Showing related downloaded files
Publication The Exposure of Workers to Artificial Intelligence in Low- and Middle-Income Countries(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-05)Research on the labor market implications of artificial intelligence has focused principally on high-income countries. This paper analyzes this issue using microdata from a large set of low- and middle-income countries, applying a measure of potential artificial intelligence occupational exposure to a harmonized set of labor force surveys for 25 countries, covering a population of 3.5 billion people. The approach advances work by using harmonized microdata at the level of individual workers, which allows for a multivariate analysis of factors associated with exposure. Additionally, unlike earlier papers, the paper uses highly detailed (4 digit) occupation codes, which provide a more reliable mapping of artificial intelligence exposure to occupation. Results within countries, show that artificial intelligence exposure is higher for women, urban workers, and those with higher education. Exposure decreases by country income level, with high exposure for just 12 percent of workers in low-income countries and 15 percent of workers in lower-middle-income countries. Furthermore, lack of access to electricity limits effective exposure in low-income countries. These results suggest that for developing countries, and in particular low-income countries, the labor market impacts of artificial intelligence will be more limited than in high-income countries. While greater exposure to artificial intelligence indicates larger potential for future changes in certain occupations, it does not equate to job loss, as it could result in augmentation of worker productivity, automation of some tasks, or both.Publication Review and Guidance on ECD Assessment Tools in FCV Contexts(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-14)By 2030, an estimated two-thirds of the world's extremely poor could be concentrated in countries and contexts characterized by fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) (World Bank Group, 2020). FCV contexts, affected by humanitarian crises, prolonged emergencies, and armed conflicts, are significant hindrances to poverty reduction and sustainable development. The cycle of instability and violence in these contexts often leads to the destruction of infrastructure and a strain on resources, making it difficult for communities to lift themselves out of poverty and achieve sustainable development goals. The list of FCV contexts includes the World Bank list of countries and territories affected by fragility and conflict situations (FCS), as well as countries suffering from violence and those with large-forcibly displaced populations that are not included in the FCS list. This review aims to describe which early childhood development (ECD) measurement tools have been used in FCV contexts and to serve as a guide for tool selection in these settings. This guidance is intended to assist country teams in identifying appropriate tools for ECD measurement activities, provided that such activities are already recognized as priorities. While parents and caregivers are essential to ECD, particularly in FCV environments, this review does not concern tools that measure adults' well-being or parenting-related outcomes. Instead, it measures children's developmental outcomes and other child-related constructs relevant to FCV contexts. The authors briefly describe the situation of children living in FCV contexts and how it can affect their development. We then make a case for the importance of ECD measurement, the lack of data on ECD in FCV contexts, and the data collection challenges. After that, we provide a deep dive into what was found in the desk review and provide a framework for tool selection. Finally, we present policy recommendations.Publication Global Skill Partnerships for Migration(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-02-07)Higher-income countries are aging at unprecedented rates, creating skills shortages in critical sectors ranging from healthcare to construction to information technology. At the same time, many lower-income countries are experiencing booming youth populations, but many lack the skills needed to access quality work opportunities both at home and abroad. In Global Skill Partnerships (GSPs), origin and destination countries partner to invest in education and training systems in the origin country to meet skill needs in both countries. Through collaboration and innovation in skills development and migration management, GSPs cost-effectively expand domestic training capacity in the origin while facilitating the benefits of regularized skilled migration. This report reviews the state of knowledge of GSPs, considers terminology and approaches, provides a roadmap for policymakers who want to implement GSPs, and clarifies the role of multilateral development institutions in this pivotal agenda. Various GSP and GSP-like programs and pilots have already been implemented globally and financed through various sources, and this report reviews their essential features, challenges faced, and lessons learned for future initiatives. Before highlighting these examples, the report discusses the current global economic landscape, focusing on demographic and education trends and why they call for international partnerships to invest in education and training for workers to participate in domestic and international markets.Publication What are the Main Variables that Influence the Dynamics of Ecuador’s Sovereign Risk?(Taylor & Francis, 2023-01-16)This paper analyzes the determinants of Ecuador’s sovereign spreads as measured by the EMBI index. We use Bayesian algorithms to estimate a structural vector autoregressive model with three blocks (international, regional, and domestic). Global variables drive most of the dynamics of the Ecuadorian EMBI, also influenced by the evolution of sovereign risks in other Latin American countries like Chile and Peru. We likewise show that the increase in public debt is the primary domestic variable affecting the Ecuadorian EMBI.Publication Implementing 30x30(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-01-24)The publication of nearly 600,000 new species occurrence maps using Global Biodiversity Information Facility data provides an opportunity to reassess international species protection with broader representation for plants, invertebrates, and other species. This development aligns with the global 30x30 initiative, where 188 governments have committed to expanding terrestrial and marine protection to cover 30 percent of the planet by 2030. This study leverages Global Biodiversity Information Facility occurrence maps to identify new opportunities for species protection in 10 countries in Latin America (Brazil, Costa Rica, and Ecuador), Africa (Cameroon, South Africa, and Madagascar), and the Asia-Pacific region (Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, India, and China). By focusing on individual countries, the paper emphasizes the importance of local conservation stewardship. Both terrestrial and marine cases are analyzed, with particular attention to endemic species. Unlike previous efforts, this approach assigns equal weight to all vertebrates, invertebrates, plants, and other species mapped in the database. A spatially efficient algorithm identifies priority localities for establishing new protected areas to safeguard unprotected species. The findings reveal that initial conditions, such as existing protection levels and the spatial clustering of unprotected species, greatly influence outcomes. Unprotected species are shown to be spatially clustered in some countries but not in others, and the representation of different taxa among unprotected species is found to vary significantly across countries. Some countries can achieve full protection within the 30 percent territorial limit, while others may need to exceed it. However, in all cases, spatial clustering enables significant protection gains through modest expansions of protected areas, demonstrating a path forward for enhancing biodiversity conservation within global commitments.