Publication:
Explaining Differences in the Returns to R&D in Argentina: The Role of Contextual Factors and Complementarities

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Files in English
English PDF (2.46 MB)
425 downloads
English Text (222.02 KB)
53 downloads
Published
2020-04
ISSN
Date
2020-04-30
Author(s)
Arza, Valeria
Colonna, Agustina
Lopez, Emanuel
Editor(s)
Abstract
Argentina's private investment in research and development is well below that of its peers. One important reason may be low and very heterogeneous returns to research and development activities on productivity. This paper uses novel microdata to estimate the returns to research and development and understand the contextual factors that shape their heterogeneity. The paper groups these context-based factors into knowledge complementary factors (that is, factors that affect the returns via learning capabilities from external sources of knowledge) and market complementary factors (factors that act via business capabilities to appropriate the returns to research and development investments). The paper hypothesizes that the effects of contextual factors depend on firms' management capabilities and attitudes (innovative capacity), which determine firms' ability to benefit from the context. The findings suggest that the returns are indeed heterogeneous across regions and sectors, and these results depend on some context-based factors, which can boost or depress the returns to R&D. The results have important policy implications, considering the effectiveness of innovation policies, need for adapting to specific regions and sectors, and maximization of the impact of these factors on the returns to research and development.
Link to Data Set
Citation
Arza, Valeria; Cirera, Xavier; Colonna, Agustina; Lopez, Emanuel. 2020. Explaining Differences in the Returns to R&D in Argentina: The Role of Contextual Factors and Complementarities. Policy Research Working Paper;No. 9219. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/33666 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.
Associated URLs
Associated content
Report Series
Report Series
Other publications in this report series
  • Publication
    The Economic Value of Weather Forecasts: A Quantitative Systematic Literature Review
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-09-10) Farkas, Hannah; Linsenmeier, Manuel; Talevi, Marta; Avner, Paolo; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Sidibe, Moussa
    This study systematically reviews the literature that quantifies the economic benefits of weather observations and forecasts in four weather-dependent economic sectors: agriculture, energy, transport, and disaster-risk management. The review covers 175 peer-reviewed journal articles and 15 policy reports. Findings show that the literature is concentrated in high-income countries and most studies use theoretical models, followed by observational and then experimental research designs. Forecast horizons studied, meteorological variables and services, and monetization techniques vary markedly by sector. Estimated benefits even within specific subsectors span several orders of magnitude and broad uncertainty ranges. An econometric meta-analysis suggests that theoretical studies and studies in richer countries tend to report significantly larger values. Barriers that hinder value realization are identified on both the provider and user sides, with inadequate relevance, weak dissemination, and limited ability to act recurring across sectors. Policy reports rely heavily on back-of-the-envelope or recursive benefit-transfer estimates, rather than on the methods and results of the peer-reviewed literature, revealing a science-to-policy gap. These findings suggest substantial socioeconomic potential of hydrometeorological services around the world, but also knowledge gaps that require more valuation studies focusing on low- and middle-income countries, addressing provider- and user-side barriers and employing rigorous empirical valuation methods to complement and validate theoretical models.
  • Publication
    The Macroeconomic Implications of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Options
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-05-29) Abalo, Kodzovi; Boehlert, Brent; Bui, Thanh; Burns, Andrew; Castillo, Diego; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Haider, Alexander; Hallegatte, Stephane; Jooste, Charl; McIsaac, Florent; Ruberl, Heather; Smet, Kim; Strzepek, Ken
    Estimating the macroeconomic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation options is a topic of intense research. This paper presents a framework in the World Bank's macrostructural model to assess climate-related damages. This approach has been used in many Country Climate and Development Reports, a World Bank diagnostic that identifies priorities to ensure continued development in spite of climate change and climate policy objectives. The methodology captures a set of impact channels through which climate change affects the economy by (1) connecting a set of biophysical models to the macroeconomic model and (2) exploring a set of development and climate scenarios. The paper summarizes the results for five countries, highlighting the sources and magnitudes of their vulnerability --- with estimated gross domestic product losses in 2050 exceeding 10 percent of gross domestic product in some countries and scenarios, although only a small set of impact channels is included. The paper also presents estimates of the macroeconomic gains from sector-level adaptation interventions, considering their upfront costs and avoided climate impacts and finding significant net gross domestic product gains from adaptation opportunities identified in the Country Climate and Development Reports. Finally, the paper discusses the limits of current modeling approaches, and their complementarity with empirical approaches based on historical data series. The integrated modeling approach proposed in this paper can inform policymakers as they make proactive decisions on climate change adaptation and resilience.
  • Publication
    Rigging the Scores: Corruption through Scoring Rule Manipulation in Public Procurement Auctions
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-02) Chen, Qianmiao
    Public procurement is highly susceptible to corruption, especially in developing countries. Although open auctions are widely adopted to curb it, this paper finds that corruption remains prevalent even within this procurement format. Procurement officers can collaborate with firms to manipulate scoring rules, ensuring predetermined winners, while corrupt firms submit noncompetitive bids to meet minimum bidder requirements. Using extensive data from Chinese public procurement auctions, the paper introduces model-driven statistical tools to detect such corruption, identifying a corruption rate of 65 percent. A procurement expert audit survey confirms the tools’ reliability, with a 91 percent probability that experts recognize suspicious scoring rules when flagged. Firm-level analysis reveals that local, state-owned, and less productive firms are favored in corrupt auctions. Lastly, the paper explores policy implications. Analysis of the national anti-corruption campaign since 2012 suggests that general investigations may be insufficient to address deeply ingrained corrupt practices. Using counterfactuals based on an estimated structural model, the paper shows that implementing anonymous call-for-tender evaluations could improve social welfare by 10 percent by eliminating suspicious rules and encouraging broader participation.
  • Publication
    Labor Demand in the Age of Generative AI: Early Evidence from the U.S. Job Posting Data
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-11-18) Liu, Yan; Wang, He; Yu, Shu
    This paper examines the causal impact of generative artificial intelligence on U.S. labor demand using online job posting data. Exploiting ChatGPT’s release in November 2022 as an exogenous shock, the paper applies difference-in-differences and event study designs to estimate the job displacement effects of generative artificial intelligence. The identification strategy compares labor demand for occupations with high versus low artificial intelligence substitution vulnerability following ChatGPT’s launch, conditioning on similar generative artificial intelligence exposure levels to isolate substitution effects from complementary uses. The analysis uses 285 million job postings collected by Lightcast from the first quarter of 2018 to the second quarter of 2025Q2. The findings show that the number of postings for occupations with above-median artificial intelligence substitution scores fell by an average of 12 percent relative to those with below-median scores. The effect increased from 6 percent in the first year after the launch to 18 percent by the third year. Losses were particularly acute for entry-level positions that require neither advanced degrees (18 percent) nor extensive experience (20 percent), as well as those in administrative support (40 percent) and professional services (30 percent). Although generative artificial intelligence generates new occupations and enhances productivity, which may increase labor demand, early evidence suggests that some occupations may be less likely to be complemented by generative artificial intelligence than others.
  • Publication
    Investment Policy Reforms and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-12-01) Fwaga, Sammy; Chakrapani, Deepa; Abebe, Girum
    Foreign direct investment has the potential to introduce much-needed capital and expertise in emerging and developing economies. To attract foreign direct investment, many countries have eased restrictions on foreign ownership in various sectors, reformed their institutions, and set up investment promotion agencies. Until the mid-2010s, Ethiopia remained one of the few countries that resisted this trend, with several stringent restrictions in place on foreign direct investment entry and operations in the country. This study employs a synthetic control method to examine patterns in foreign capital inflows following a series of investment policy reforms that were substantively introduced in the mid-2010s (circa 2015). The study offers evidence that investment policy reforms contributed to a significant foreign direct investment inflow in Ethiopia, compared to what would have occurred in the absence of these policies. An alternative strategy that conservatively specifies the donor country pool using an AI-assisted deep search technique changes the donor pool weighting matrix of the synthetic control method, but the estimated policy effects largely remain robust to this specification. The findings highlight the importance of targeted reforms in promoting foreign direct investment inflow in developing countries.
Journal
Journal Volume
Journal Issue

Related items

Showing items related by metadata.

  • Publication
    Explaining Differences in the Returns to R&D in Argentina
    (Taylor and Francis, 2022-01-31) Arza, Valeria; Cirera, Xavier; López, Emanuel; Colonna, Agustina
    Argentinean firms’ investments in R&D are well below its regional peers. One potential explanation for this fact is the existence of low and heterogeneous returns for these investments. This paper uses novel microdata to estimate the returns to R&D and analyse the role of contextual factors in shaping its heterogeneity. The findings confirm that returns are indeed heterogeneous and depend on some important factors related to the market context, such as measures of uncertainty; and the knowledge context, such as knowledge spillovers. Acknowledging that heterogeneity of returns depends on firms’ context is crucial for designing innovation policies to boost private R&D returns.
  • Publication
    Catching Up to the Technological Frontier?
    (World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2015-03-06) Cirera, Xavier
    Kenya s economy has undergone a significant process of structural transformation over the last decade. Since 2002, the economy has shown an accelerating trend with GDP growth increasing steadily from below 1 percent in 2002 to 7 percent in 2007. After a slowdown in GDP growth to 1.5 percent and 2.7 percent in 2008 and 2009 respectively, economic growth started to rebound in 2010. Amidst this positive growth context, in October 2013, the Kenyan Government launched the Second Medium-Term Plan (MTP-2) of the Vision 2030. The aim of Kenya s Vision 2030 is to create a globally competitive and prosperous country with a high quality of life by 2030 and to shift the country s status to upper-middle income level.
  • Publication
    ICT Indicators and Implications for Methods for Assessing Socioeconomic Impact of ICT
    (Washington, DC, 2012) World Bank
    This report is being delivered pursuant to the agreement (Agreement) between the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology of the Arab Republic of Egypt (MCIT) and the World Bank (Bank) for the provision by the Bank of technical assistance (RTA) to MCIT and certain of its affiliates. One of those affiliates is the Information Technology Industry Development Authority (ITIDA). When it comes to designing and implementing ICT policies, the availability of proper indicators is key to efficiency and effectiveness. However, the indicators should go further, and should help policymakers also to measure how well the sector or projects are performing, provide an assessment over time on the status of a project, program, or policy, promote credibility and public confidence by reporting on the results of programs, provide in-depth information about public sector performance, help formulate and justify budget requests, and identify potentially promising programs or practices for duplication or scalability. Thus, this report is composed of the following sections: (i) a discussion of indicator types, in particular impact indicators and their constraints; (ii) an overview of the institutional setup of ICT data in Egypt; (iii) ICT data categories and methodologies used by major international indices and reports, including an analysis of Egypt's strong and weak results in the indices; (iv) a mapping and gap analysis between the indices' indicators and those currently collected by Egypt; (v) a set of recommendations for Egypt and (vi) implications of this work with respect to analyzing the socioeconomic impact of ICTs on investment, trade, growth and education in Egypt.
  • Publication
    Customer Management in SME Banking
    (Washington, DC, 2012) International Finance Corporation
    The objective of the Customer Management in Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Banking Guide is to share and disseminate critical information for managing the SME client relationship, allowing banks that already serve the SME sector to move beyond lending to better capture the SME Banking opportunity. This Guide leverages IFC s SME Banking Diagnostic framework used to assess SME banking operations, as well as its SME Banking Benchmarking exercise used to analyze good practice business models. In addition, the Guide provides practical examples of customer management focused on SME banking from a number of featured financial institutions. Such examples may serve to highlight a good practice, or may simply serve to illustrate a learning experience. Financial institutions featured in this publication include Bankinter, DBS Bank, Diamond Bank, Garanti Bank, ICICI Bank, Banco Santander, and Türk Ekonomi Bankasi (TEB). Additional SME banking experiences are drawn from a variety of other banks and are cited throughout the text as appropriate. Profitably serving the SME segment requires a tailored customer management approach that will allow banks to answer these four questions: How can banks better understand SME customer needs? How can they match diverse needs with the right offer, service level, and delivery channel? How can customer management be used to maximize the revenue opportunity when servicing this market segment? How can banks effectively manage SME customers across their life-cycle? This guide will address these questions as well as take the reader through the customer life-cycle to target and acquire new SME clients.
  • Publication
    Regulatory and Financial Incentives for Scaling Up Concentrating Solar Power in Developing Countries
    (World Bank, Washington, DC, 2011-06) Kulichenko, Nataliya; Wirth, Jens
    Concentrating solar thermal (CST) technologies have a clear potential for scaling up renewable energy at the utility level, thereby diversifying the generation portfolio mix, powering development, and mitigating climate change. A recent surge in demand for solar thermal power generation projects in several World Bank Group (WBG) partner countries shows that CST could indeed become an important renewable energy technology that would be able to provide an alternative to conventional thermal power generation based on the central utility model. At present, different CST technologies have reached varying degrees of commercial availability. This emerging nature of CST means that there are market and technical impediments to accelerating its acceptance, including cost competitiveness, an understanding of technology capability and limitations, intermittency, and benefits of electricity storage. Many developed and some developing countries are currently working to address these barriers in order to scale up CST-based power generation. Given the considerable growth of CST development in several WBG partner countries, there is a need to assess the recent experience of developed countries in designing and implementing regulatory frameworks and draw lesson that could facilitate the deployment of CST technologies in developing countries. Merely replicating developed countries' schemes in the context of a developing country may not generate the desired outcomes.

Users also downloaded

Showing related downloaded files

  • Publication
    Global Economic Prospects, June 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-06-11) World Bank
    After several years of negative shocks, global growth is expected to hold steady in 2024 and then edge up in the next couple of years, in part aided by cautious monetary policy easing as inflation gradually declines. However, economic prospects are envisaged to remain tepid, especially in the most vulnerable countries. Risks to the outlook, while more balanced, are still tilted to the downside, including the possibility of escalating geopolitical tensions, further trade fragmentation, and higher-for-longer interest rates. Natural disasters related to climate change could also hinder activity. Subdued growth prospects across many emerging market and developing economies and continued risks underscore the need for decisive policy action at the global and national levels. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
  • Publication
    Digital Africa
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2023-03-13) Begazo, Tania; Dutz, Mark Andrew; Blimpo, Moussa
    All African countries need better and more jobs for their growing populations. "Digital Africa: Technological Transformation for Jobs" shows that broader use of productivity-enhancing, digital technologies by enterprises and households is imperative to generate such jobs, including for lower-skilled people. At the same time, it can support not only countries’ short-term objective of postpandemic economic recovery but also their vision of economic transformation with more inclusive growth. These outcomes are not automatic, however. Mobile internet availability has increased throughout the continent in recent years, but Africa’s uptake gap is the highest in the world. Areas with at least 3G mobile internet service now cover 84 percent of Africa’s population, but only 22 percent uses such services. And the average African business lags in the use of smartphones and computers as well as more sophisticated digital technologies that catalyze further productivity gains. Two issues explain the usage gap: affordability of these new technologies and willingness to use them. For the 40 percent of Africans below the extreme poverty line, mobile data plans alone would cost one-third of their incomes—in addition to the price of access devices, apps, and electricity. Data plans for small- and medium-size businesses are also more expensive than in other regions. Moreover, shortcomings in the quality of internet services—and in the supply of attractive, skills-appropriate apps that promote entrepreneurship and raise earnings—dampen people’s willingness to use them. For those countries already using these technologies, the development payoffs are significant. New empirical studies for this report add to the rapidly growing evidence that mobile internet availability directly raises enterprise productivity, increases jobs, and reduces poverty throughout Africa. To realize these and other benefits more widely, Africa’s countries must implement complementary and mutually reinforcing policies to strengthen both consumers’ ability to pay and willingness to use digital technologies. These interventions must prioritize productive use to generate large numbers of inclusive jobs in a region poised to benefit from a massive, youthful workforce—one projected to become the world’s largest by the end of this century.
  • Publication
    Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-04-29) World Bank
    Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index in 2025, as a marked slowdown in global oil consumption coincides with expanding supply. The anticipated commodity price softening is broad-based, however, with more than half of the commodities in the forecast set to decrease this year, many by more than 10 percent. The latest shocks to hit commodity markets extend a so far tumultuous decade, marked by the highest level of commodity price volatility in at least half a century. Between 2020 and 2024, commodity price swings were frequent and sharp, with knock-on consequences for economic activity and inflation. In the next two years, commodity prices are expected to put downward pressure on global inflation. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in global growth—driven by worsening trade relations or a prolonged tightening of financial conditions—could further depress commodity demand, especially for industrial products. In addition, if OPEC+ fully unwinds its voluntary supply cuts, oil production will far exceed projected consumption. There are also important upside risks to commodity prices—for instance, if geopolitical tensions worsen, threatening oil and gas supplies, or if extreme weather events lead to agricultural and energy price spikes.
  • Publication
    Classroom Assessment to Support Foundational Literacy
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2025-03-21) Luna-Bazaldua, Diego; Levin, Victoria; Liberman, Julia; Gala, Priyal Mukesh
    This document focuses primarily on how classroom assessment activities can measure students’ literacy skills as they progress along a learning trajectory towards reading fluently and with comprehension by the end of primary school grades. The document addresses considerations regarding the design and implementation of early grade reading classroom assessment, provides examples of assessment activities from a variety of countries and contexts, and discusses the importance of incorporating classroom assessment practices into teacher training and professional development opportunities for teachers. The structure of the document is as follows. The first section presents definitions and addresses basic questions on classroom assessment. Section 2 covers the intersection between assessment and early grade reading by discussing how learning assessment can measure early grade reading skills following the reading learning trajectory. Section 3 compares some of the most common early grade literacy assessment tools with respect to the early grade reading skills and developmental phases. Section 4 of the document addresses teacher training considerations in developing, scoring, and using early grade reading assessment. Additional issues in assessing reading skills in the classroom and using assessment results to improve teaching and learning are reviewed in section 5. Throughout the document, country cases are presented to demonstrate how assessment activities can be implemented in the classroom in different contexts.
  • Publication
    Business Ready 2024
    (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2024-10-03) World Bank
    Business Ready (B-READY) is a new World Bank Group corporate flagship report that evaluates the business and investment climate worldwide. It replaces and improves upon the Doing Business project. B-READY provides a comprehensive data set and description of the factors that strengthen the private sector, not only by advancing the interests of individual firms but also by elevating the interests of workers, consumers, potential new enterprises, and the natural environment. This 2024 report introduces a new analytical framework that benchmarks economies based on three pillars: Regulatory Framework, Public Services, and Operational Efficiency. The analysis centers on 10 topics essential for private sector development that correspond to various stages of the life cycle of a firm. The report also offers insights into three cross-cutting themes that are relevant for modern economies: digital adoption, environmental sustainability, and gender. B-READY draws on a robust data collection process that includes specially tailored expert questionnaires and firm-level surveys. The 2024 report, which covers 50 economies, serves as the first in a series that will expand in geographical coverage and refine its methodology over time, supporting reform advocacy, policy guidance, and further analysis and research.